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Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet?
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tri_bri2
Aug 8, 08 9:23
Post #1 of 31 (548 views)
Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet?
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Seeing a commercial last night on how the polar bears were going to become extinct due to arctic (or as Al Gore calls it "artic") sea ice melting got me wondering. Remember back a few months ago when some scientists proclaimed that the ice cap would entirely melt this summer? Well, actually it seems that the arctic sea ice coverage was 11% higher in July 2008 than it was in July of 2007 (9.0 million sq. km. vs. 8.1 million sq. km.), and the arctic sea ice concentration was 14% higher in July 2008 than it was in July of 2007 (5.7 million sq. km. vs. 5.0 million sq. km.). August data is not available yet, and September data will reflect the lowest annual extent, with ice coverage starting to rebuild in October. But so far--maybe those models aren't looking too good?
Fatmouse
Aug 8, 08 10:05
Post #2 of 31 (521 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [tri_bri2]
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"Remember back a few months ago when some scientists proclaimed that the ice cap would entirely melt this summer?"
I don't recall that. Can you refresh my memory with a link or something? I would hate to see majorminor get on your case.
While we're waiting on that, do you think one year negates a trend?
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"Also, of course the United States can't do everything. It does not follow that we should do nothing." AF
walnutcreek tri
Aug 8, 08 10:08
Post #3 of 31 (514 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Fatmouse]
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How many years would have to negate a trend?
Erik
Aug 8, 08 10:11
Post #4 of 31 (508 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Fatmouse]
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"Remember back a few months ago when some scientists proclaimed that the ice cap would entirely melt this summer?"
I don't recall that. Can you refresh my memory with a link or something? I would hate to see majorminor get on your case.
While we're waiting on that, do you think one year negates a trend?
this was widely predicted on many news outlets. if you don't believe it, dig it up yourself.
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Striving to have sex more than 66 times per year
Fatmouse
Aug 8, 08 10:25
Post #5 of 31 (498 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Erik]
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Easy tiger. I didn't recall that and asked for a link. No need to get testy if you can't find one. Just trying to keep majorminor from going after tribri for pulling a tridiot.
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"Also, of course the United States can't do everything. It does not follow that we should do nothing." AF
Tridiot
Aug 8, 08 10:26
Post #6 of 31 (494 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Fatmouse]
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I resemble that remark!
Fatmouse
Aug 8, 08 10:27
Post #7 of 31 (491 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [walnutcreek tri]
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Don't know. Probably depends on the trend. People look at 3-5-7 year rolling averages. Others look at decadal rolling averages.
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"Also, of course the United States can't do everything. It does not follow that we should do nothing." AF
ajfranke
Aug 8, 08 10:29
Post #8 of 31 (489 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Fatmouse]
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MattinSF with one of his prescient posts a few months ago:
http://www.cnn.com/...e.melting/index.html
Scientists are betting that the north pole will be ice free this summer, open ocean. Thats sobering.
Although scientists may have been betting, he was wise enough not to bet, since he has a brain and knew it was BS. He ignored my challenge, as usual:
It is very nice that scientists are betting. Will you? How much money do you have?
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This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
Old and Haggard
Aug 8, 08 10:35
Post #9 of 31 (480 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [tri_bri2]
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I think you should listen to a different set of scientists:
http://www.arcus.org/...tlook/report_may.php
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Of the individual responses that included quantitative outlooks, three (3) suggest a return toward the long-term trend of summer sea ice loss; six (6) anticipate the 2008 extent to be close to the 2007 record minimum; five (5) respondents suggest additional ice loss compared to the 2007 minimum. None suggested a return to the historical average (mean 1979–2000 September values) of 7.0 million square kilometers.
DISCLAIMER:
This Sea Ice Outlook should not be considered as a formal forecast or prediction for arctic sea ice extent, nor is it intended as a replacement for existing efforts with operational responsibility.
None were close to saying the ice cap would entirely melt this summer.
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Ken Lehner
"reread klenher [sic] and pretty much skip the rest." - desert dude 5/25/2008
Old and Haggard
Aug 8, 08 10:40
Post #10 of 31 (470 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [ajfranke]
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Just curious here, Art: do you know the difference between the Arctic ice cap and the geographic North Pole?
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It's a 50-50 bet that the thin Arctic sea ice, which was frozen in autumn, will completely melt away
at the geographic North Pole
, Serreze said.
Find me a single scientist who said
the Arctic ice cap
might melt entirely this summer.
Are you really this oblivious, or are you being disingenuous (again)?
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Ken Lehner
"reread klenher [sic] and pretty much skip the rest." - desert dude 5/25/2008
tri_bri2
Aug 8, 08 10:47
Post #11 of 31 (463 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Old and Haggard]
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Olav Orheim, for one:
http://www.treehugger.com/...tic-ice-cap-gone.php
m00se
Aug 8, 08 10:47
Post #12 of 31 (464 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Old and Haggard]
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Just curious here, Art: do you know the difference between the Arctic ice cap and the geographic North Pole?
I'm not Art....but what IS the difference? I honestly don't REALLY know. I'd ASSume they're close to the same?...but apparently not?
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The world is full of pricks who can only criticize. Are you one of them?
Your time and energy are limited. Are you wasting them by talking shit on the forums? -Dave Tate
Old and Haggard
Aug 8, 08 10:51
Post #13 of 31 (456 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [m00se]
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Just curious here, Art: do you know the difference between the Arctic ice cap and the geographic North Pole?
I'm not Art....but what IS the difference? I honestly don't REALLY know. I'd ASSume they're close to the same?...but apparently not?
Seriously? The Arctic ice cap is the vast expanse (like 7mil square kilometers) of ice floating on the Arctic Ocean. The geographic North Pole is a specific point on that ice cap. It's possible to have lots of ice on the former, and very little to none on the latter. The bet that the scientists alluded to by MattinSF and ajfranke (without realizing it) referred to the latter. The OP in this thread is likely mistakenly referring to the former.
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Ken Lehner
"reread klenher [sic] and pretty much skip the rest." - desert dude 5/25/2008
tri_bri2
Aug 8, 08 10:53
Post #14 of 31 (444 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Old and Haggard]
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No, I'm likely not referring to the former.
Stories this spring were that the ENTIRE ice cap would melt.
Old and Haggard
Aug 8, 08 10:54
Post #15 of 31 (438 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [tri_bri2]
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Olav Orheim, for one:
http://www.treehugger.com/...tic-ice-cap-gone.php
He may have been correct, given his large caveat: "if Norway's average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away." I'm pretty sure that didn't happen.
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Ken Lehner
"reread klenher [sic] and pretty much skip the rest." - desert dude 5/25/2008
Tridiot
Aug 8, 08 10:55
Post #16 of 31 (435 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [tri_bri2]
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Wasn't he a goalie in the NHL in the 70s?
m00se
Aug 8, 08 10:55
Post #17 of 31 (435 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Old and Haggard]
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gotcha...makes sense...thanks!
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The world is full of pricks who can only criticize. Are you one of them?
Your time and energy are limited. Are you wasting them by talking shit on the forums? -Dave Tate
Old and Haggard
Aug 8, 08 10:56
Post #18 of 31 (433 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [tri_bri2]
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No, I'm likely not referring to the former.
Stories this spring were that the ENTIRE ice cap would melt.
Please do find some scientists (not news stories misunderstanding, like Art apparently has) who predicted the wholesale melting of the Arctic ice cap this summer.
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Ken Lehner
"reread klenher [sic] and pretty much skip the rest." - desert dude 5/25/2008
tri_bri2
Aug 8, 08 10:58
Post #19 of 31 (424 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Old and Haggard]
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Okay then--now we're getting somewhere. If Norway's average temperature this year has not been as hot as last year (which world-wide was considered a relatively cold year) then doesn't that throw some doubt on the whole GW theory?
Fatmouse
Aug 8, 08 11:00
Post #20 of 31 (416 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [tri_bri2]
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Okay then--now we're getting somewhere. If Norway's average temperature this year has not been as hot as last year (which world-wide was considered a relatively cold year) then doesn't that throw some doubt on the whole GW theory?
Ah, we're back to my question about whether or not one year negates a trend. Obviously, you feel it does.
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"Also, of course the United States can't do everything. It does not follow that we should do nothing." AF
ajfranke
Aug 8, 08 11:12
Post #21 of 31 (395 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Old and Haggard]
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I am going to go way out on a limb here, but I will hazard a guess that the North Pole is pretty close to the center of the Arctic Ice Cap and that we would not expect to see the North Pole ice disappear unless the rest of the Ice Cap, which by definition is further south, took a major, major hit. Correct me if I am wrong.
So do you want to make the bet that MattinSF ran away from?
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This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
Old and Haggard
Aug 8, 08 11:24
Post #22 of 31 (378 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [ajfranke]
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I am going to go way out on a limb here, but I will hazard a guess that the North Pole is pretty close to the center of the Arctic Ice Cap and that we would not expect to see the North Pole ice disappear unless the rest of the Ice Cap, which by definition is further south, took a major, major hit. Correct me if I am wrong.
So do you want to make the bet that MattinSF ran away from?
You are wrong. You assume that the center of the ice mass is the thickest, when in fact it is not close to that. Submarines don't just bust through anywhere, although they have done so at the North Pole. For instance, this image
shows ice concentration from 1979 (blue) and 1998 (red). See that blue blob right in the middle of the Arctic, where ice is not nearly as thick as it used to be? That's the North Pole.
Not being an ice scientist, I wouldn't bet either way.
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Ken Lehner
"reread klenher [sic] and pretty much skip the rest." - desert dude 5/25/2008
oldandslow
Aug 8, 08 11:29
Post #23 of 31 (365 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [ajfranke]
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Okay, you are wrong. The extent and location of the ice cap melt is hugely dependent on climate in Siberia and Canada. The melt last year was historic primarily because of extremely hot weather in Siberia and and prevailing winds which melted a great deal of ice on the Russian side of the ice cap. The ice cap is sometimes round, but is often skewed to one side or the other, which makes it very possible to have a melt at the North Pole, but still have a great deal of arctic ice. The "ice-free North Pole" would be primarily a symbolic occurrence (except for Santa and his helpers), and would happen decades before a complete melt of ice cap. Here is a link to a story that was widely reported a few months ago:
http://www.cnn.com/.../north.pole.melting/
(this is the story I remember)
Check these websites for data/pictures/analysis of arctic ice trends.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
http://www.realclimate.org
---
Races this year:
Wildflower Long Course
TEAM RAAM (4 person)
tri_bri2
Aug 8, 08 12:31
Post #24 of 31 (318 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [Fatmouse]
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Could be a "speedbump." But, then again, every trend reverses itself at some point.
But, hey, environmentalists can claim a small victory here. Obviously, all those flourescent lightbulbs and reusable grocery bags are working.
Monk
Aug 8, 08 19:25
Post #25 of 31 (230 views)
Re: Is the Arctic sea ice cap gone yet? [tri_bri2]
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(or as Al Gore calls it "artic")
Thats better than sosh-kurdy laaaahk-box
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