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Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared"

aerobike

Jul 3, 09 13:58

Post #1 of 22 (1551 views)

Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared"	Can't Post

Lance is 2-3 pounds lighter than he has ever been before at the Tour de France. That's amazing, considering how light he used to get. The guy knows what he is doing. The guy will win. My guess is he realizes (a) this Tour will be won in the mountains as there are not that many TT miles, thus losing more weight and (b) his power is probably not as high as it used to be when he was younger, meaning he shed a couple of pounds extra to keep his power/weight ratio at Tour de France winning levels. We'll all find out soon enough.

chrisjones

Jul 3, 09 14:04

Post #2 of 22 (1525 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [aerobike] [In reply to]	Can't Post

Where did you learn that he is 2-3 lbs lighter than at the start of his TdF wins? Did he weigh himself on your bathroom scale, or perhaps you read this somewhere that you could link to?

ericlambi

Jul 3, 09 18:46

Post #3 of 22 (1218 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [aerobike] [In reply to]	Can't Post

In Reply To:

Lance says his performance metrics leading up to the tour have been better than 2003, not as good as 2002, 2004, or 2005. If he is being truthful about this and his age does not cause him to tail off toward the latter part of the tour, he should win easily. Remember that Contador would have lost the tour to Michael Rasmussen if Rassumssen's team had not pulled him out. I'll say that again: Contador would have lost the tour to Michael Rasmussen. The current generation of riders is simply not as good as Armstrong/Ulrich/Basso/Beloki. If Lance is still at the same level, he'll win easily.

DC Pattie

Jul 3, 09 18:47

Post #4 of 22 (1215 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [aerobike] [In reply to]	Can't Post

There is no doubt in my mind that Lance can follow anyone up the mountains - then put time on them all in the time trials. The only thing that could defeat him is if Contador attacks - will Lance be able to follow or will he be ordered to sit in the pack?

Hopefully for Lance - A. Shcleck or Sastre will not lose Contador's wheel on the steep slopes, this way Lance can follow them up or even attack himself.

Dave in VA

jackmott

Jul 3, 09 18:51

Post #5 of 22 (1198 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [ericlambi] [In reply to]	Can't Post

rasmussen was hopped up on synthetic blood and crap, he may have been superhuman during that tour =)

In Reply To:

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TriUno83

Jul 3, 09 19:38

Post #6 of 22 (1077 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [ericlambi] [In reply to]	Can't Post

Just based on my own experience, being close to LA's age (i'm a couple years older, not much) my ability to perform at a high level for a given race situation is pretty close to what it was 5-10 years ago... a little drop-off on hills (W/kg is no doubt slightly less than it used to be) but offset by a slight gain in TTs and flatter events (better position, more experience pacing & managing specific preparation). BUT, what I notice more than anything else is I am not nearly as resilient as I used to be. It takes more time/effort/organization to get all the planets aligned right for an optimum performance, which is harder to duplicate repeatedly on short turnaround. Can't just ride hard and get put away wet day after day anymore. So in a stage race, I wonder how he'll respond to the cumulative effect of max-level racing several days in a row, which is something I would think is harder to quantify in his training parameters just like FTP or body weight. To me it's less a question of whether he can out-duel AC in a showdown on Stage <X>, but can he bounce back as well when it's time to go at it again the day after?

BarryP

Jul 3, 09 20:12

Post #7 of 22 (995 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [TriUno83] [In reply to]	Can't Post

x2.

I'm 36. I Pr'd in a halfmary last year which means "I can still do it," but every set back I have is mulitplied 3-4 times over what it used to be. I am actually quite amazed at hour slowly I bounce back. What used to take me a week or two now takes a month or two.

I think Lance's chance of winning will be a roll of the dice. IMO, if he makes top 5, I'd still count that as a huge win for him.
-----------------------------Barry Pollock (aka Baron Von Speedypants)
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Bum

Jul 3, 09 20:49

Post #8 of 22 (926 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [BarryP] [In reply to]	Can't Post

All it takes is one bad day in the mountains to lose a tour. It's been several years since he's done this. I think he craps up the second mountain stage.

ndenezzo

Jul 3, 09 21:09

Post #9 of 22 (875 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [TriUno83] [In reply to]	Can't Post

I think that will be the biggest limiting factor for him. But I think that was part of the reason for still doing the Giro before the Tour. He got to test out how well he could recover in day-to-day racing, and I think he proved to hold up pretty well (though he wasn't racing as hard as he will be in the Tour). He seemed to recover from that broken collar bone pretty quickly, too.
I wouldn't be surprised if his body recovers better/faster than most of us mere mortals (at least back in his prime), which probably helped him win the tour 7 times. Maybe age has slowed him down enough to be on a level playing field with everyone else now.

eganski

Jul 4, 09 0:55

Post #10 of 22 (721 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [aerobike] [In reply to]	Can't Post

I think one of two scenarios will occur-1. he wins. I don't know if the gap between he and Evans, Contador, Sastre has closed that significantly (his age closing it one way, their improvement closing it the other). He's not racing guys he finished 5 minutes in front of in 2005, he's racing guys he finished 15 minutes in front of.

2. He doesn't win but gets close. I'm thinking of the Michael Jordan comeback here. He didn't have the perfect lead-in with the broken collarbone and the Giro (in that he's never done the Giro to prepare for the Tour) and in the past he would spend more time in France than he did this year. Realizing this, he embarks on a yearlong journey to return to dominate next year setting up the ultimate showdown of Lance and Team LiveSTRONG vs. Astana and Contador/Vino.

If you held a gun to my head I would say that scenario 2 is guaranteed and that he'll still squeak by with a win this year. Either way, good for us, bad for everyone else.
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G-man

Jul 4, 09 2:37

Post #11 of 22 (663 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [eganski] [In reply to]	Can't Post

He does look fit. Who knows if he rope a doped along in the Giro? He is such a game player anything is possible with him. Everything you have read about his power numbers this year are probably bold lies. Still say he has to be able to climb with the boys to win, It will be an exciting Tour this year. We will either shut up the Lance lovers or haters in about 15 days or so.

Bux

Jul 4, 09 5:43

Post #12 of 22 (480 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [aerobike] [In reply to]	Can't Post

45 min to showtime!!! One thing is for sure he makes the race interesting, i agree with the others on the recovery piece but he held up pretty well in the Giro........

Rahzel

Jul 4, 09 5:53

Post #13 of 22 (455 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [Bux] [In reply to]	Can't Post

Agreed. If nothing else, this year is already giving Versus a chance to get, oh, about 4 years of "non-Lance" out of their system. We haven't even started official coverage and it's turned into a Lance-athon!
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JChapATX

Jul 4, 09 5:54

Post #14 of 22 (452 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [Bux] [In reply to]	Can't Post

Today should tell us a lot. If Lance beats Contador in this first TT, we'll see a struggle for leadership of Astana. It's a course that is said to suit Contador because of the climb and the fact that it's a little longer than a traditional prologue but not long enough to be a true TT.

It will be hard to believe that Lance can ride in support of Contador if he has a legitimate claim as the strongest rider on the team.

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Skippy

Jul 4, 09 5:56

Post #15 of 22 (447 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [aerobike] [In reply to]	Can't Post

Where did you read about his weight? I would love to check that out.

I find it hard to believe that a potential contender for the TDF would be talking about either his power or his weight in any detail prior to the event.

triyourbest

Jul 4, 09 6:17

Post #16 of 22 (413 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [TriUno83] [In reply to]	Can't Post

That would make for good strategy as soon as they hit the mountains.....attack, attack, and attack. Flog the hell out of him and see if he cracks. It would also make for an interesting watch this year. Last year was like watching golf on TV. I would wake up and fall back asleep frequently.

schroeder

Jul 4, 09 6:18

Post #17 of 22 (409 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [DC Pattie] [In reply to]	Can't Post

The only thing that could defeat him is if Contador attacks - will Lance be able to follow or will he be ordered to sit in the pack?

I don't understand the benefit to the team or to Contador of having Lance stay in the pack on an attack by Contador. Wouldn't the team want them to work together on a break?

ShoMyOFace

Jul 4, 09 6:20

Post #18 of 22 (403 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [aerobike] [In reply to]	Can't Post

There was one report in which he had gained 3-4% wattage and lost 4kg's or so post Giro......?

I think Armstrong is betting the Tour on Ventoux. The Tour is not to difficult up to this point and the contenders will be separated by time gained on TT's and TTT.

I would love to see an angry Armstrong attack..........the AAA

�I�m thinking I might take that new chick from logistics. If things go well, I might be showing her my �O� face�..you know what I�m talking about�� - Drew �Office Space�

Philb

Jul 4, 09 6:24

Post #19 of 22 (392 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [schroeder] [In reply to]	Can't Post

If Contador attacks, Armstrong should only follow any attempts to catch Contador and not try to go with him and risk carrying some of their competitors up with him.

schroeder

Jul 4, 09 6:27

Post #20 of 22 (382 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [Philb] [In reply to]	Can't Post

thanks.

bad929

Jul 4, 09 6:28

Post #21 of 22 (381 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [schroeder] [In reply to]	Can't Post

Well usually, you dont ever see 2 teammates attack at the same time. If that really does happen, the greater the chance that others can follow the wheels. Besides, if Contador attacks, Lance should sit on the wheels in the chase so that A. he saves energy B. makes others do all the work C. has energy to make counter attacks if Contador or the break is caught.

You rarely rarely actually see 2 teammates attack group to form a break. If both go on the attack and are caught, it is a wasted move. If Contador attacks and is caught, Lance will have a greater chance to counter attack.

aerobike

Jul 4, 09 7:16

Post #22 of 22 (312 views)

Re: Lance Armstrong "I am well prepared" [Skippy] [In reply to]	Can't Post

In Reply To:

Armstrong feels he could figure strongly. He recently finished the Giro d'Italia in a creditable 12th place and his body weight is reassuringly low.
"I'm lighter than I was before," he said. "Before, I was about 74kg or 74.5kg [11.65st or 11.73st]. And now it's 72.5kg or 73kg. It's a good thing and I think it's because I already have one grand tour in my legs. I came out of the Giro pretty light and then the last month I was very careful with diet. I trained very hard in altitude and all those things contributed to the good body weight."
A good sign for Armstrong, then, given that his body weight was traditionally low when he dominated mountain stages during his seven Tour wins from 1999-2005.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/...trong-tour-de-france