What shoes are you running in?

Because the right shoe may have 4 minutes in it.

Go for it. It may a stretch, but based on your 1/2 splits, I think you are faster than a 1:27 and a 3:00 is reasonable. If your race has a 3:00 pace group, shut off your head and just latch on.

The easist way is to loose weight. 4-5 kgs will help a lot

Assuming conditions and your equipment are identical between the half and full, I don't think you're going to gain 4 minutes. I've always found the 2xHM time+10 minutes formula being a little aggressive for me, but I know that formula works for a lot of people.

You're probably in the 3:02 - 3:10 category depending on how well you can handle the last 10k of the race. I would guess closer to 3:10 given it's your first marathon. I'd probably go out at 7:02 and try to hold 7:02-7:05 for the first 18 miles. If I was feeling good, I'd start trying to run at 6:50-7:00, and if I'm feeling bad, just try to hold that pace.

You are asking if you can go 4 minutes faster than a projected finish time? Not a PR that you have completed in the past? If this is your first marathon I wouldn't assume you can finish in X time just because a calculator says so. Your half marathon proves you are on a great track. Finishing with a lot left in the tank is an even better indicator for a marathon.

What does your training plan call for on these coming long runs? Easy zone 2 pace or including faster running at goal pace? I would use those as a gauge of what you can do on race day. You are on the right track, just drop the focus on projected race times from a calculator. Instead look at your completed long runs in training combined with the half marathon result. Good luck!

The best thing you could do, I think, is not overcook your training and get injured in the next 6 weeks.

The next best thing I'd suggest would be nutrition. When I was young, I had really fast 1/2 marathons; I didn't get break-through marathon times and run what I was capable of until I nailed my nutrition. For me, that meant practicing 6-milers at goal marathon pace, practicing by trial and error eating as much as my digestion could handle, which for me was 1/2 a clif blok gummie every 15 minutes starting 10 seconds before the gun. Getting my nutrition right meant I avoided a bonk, which was a problem for me in my first couple marathons. It sucks to be on PR time through mile 21 and then hit the wall. Practice nutrition so you can hold pace the last 10k. That could easily be a 4-minute difference.

X2. Some folks are diesel engines and can hold HMx2+ 5-7 minutes, some struggle with +10 minutes.

Another great benchmark workout done on untapered legs and in the middle of a training block: 10 miles easy but on the high end of easy, then 4 miles at target marathon pace, 2 miles easy, 4 miles again at target marathon pace, workout should be done continuously without any breaks. If you can hold pace during the last section after 16 miles on your feet, you have a reasonable chance to aim for that after a good taper. If you struggle with the pace, then you might want to consider dialing in an easier pace on race day. A variation is (riskier if you are injury prone) 4 miles easy, 10 miles at pace, 4 miles easy, 2 miles at pace.

Not even that much weight.
For a small 50 kgs person, 1 kgs is about 2 minutes.

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Kevin

What do the courses look like in elevation and weather? If you're in the northern hemisphere it's probably going to be a fair bit cooler in 6 weeks than it it now. Could be 4+ min there depending on specifics. Likewise for hills.

When you do you long runs they should end up being about the same total time as your marathon. Take stock of how you're feeling at the end of those and how your HR is behaving. Toss in a couple miles at and faster than MP at the end of those and see how it feels.

The VDOT numbers are tough to put a ton of stock in. A guy running 25mpw is going to drop off a lot more than someone running 100mpw even if they have the same HM.

First this is not 'gaining' 4 minutes: it's choosing to aim for 4 minutes faster than the time predicted from your half.
Second, I'd say 'yes': go for it: at 6:50 pace, and try to team up with others heading for sub 3.
Finally, ditch all but one run more than 15 miles in the 30 day run up. You're gaining nothing and risk wearing yourself down to the detriment of the runs on preceding and succeeding days, and general wear and tear. Confident, fresh and eager at the line.
I appreciate that there are other schools of thought on this.

nike vaporfly 2

not sure i can healthily lose 10 lbs in 6 weeks.

5 lbs maybe

The half marathon weather was nearly perfect. It got warm later in the day but we were done running by then.

Half was in chicago area, full is in Indianapolis, so hopefully weather will be right at end of October. (likely cooler then the half even)

Forgot to mention that the full is even flatter than the half. Nearly the same amount of elevation in both.

Do your 5k/10k PBs indicate sub-3 shape? 1:27-flat is about the upper limit for a sub-3 attempt. A lot of first timers need something closer to 1:25 to get it done, sometimes even a touch faster. But I tend to think doubling your half & adding 6 minutes should be the marathon A goal for most people. You're really not going to gain much more fitness in the next 6 weeks. You don't have time to improve your speed. But you can continue to log good mileage and get in some good long runs w./ GMP mixed in. No reason not to target 6:45-6:50 pace in those workouts and see how you're feeling. In that 3-5 weeks out range I would do something like 22 miles, going 10 E, 10 @ GMP (6:45-6:50), 2 E. If you do that in a normal training week (no taper going in) & it doesn't feel like a race effort you can take some confidence heading into the marathon. As far as the race goes, mile 1 should be a few seconds slower than 3hr pace and then settle into 3hr pace by 5k. It could be a big mistake to get carried away with some 6:30s/40s too early in the race. It could turn a 2:59-3:02 into a 3:10. & this is if you have a good weather day. Just be sensible if race day conditions are less than ideal. It's very likely that a 3:05ish could be worth a 2:59 if you get a dew point around 60 or higher.

Upcoming long runs:

19 miles as 9 easy, 8 at marathon pace, 2 easy

22 miles easy - just getting to 3:10-3:15 total run time

20 miles as 9 easy, 9 at marathon pace, 2 easy

workouts just listed as you typed your response.

What do you mean by the below statement?

It's very likely that a 3:05ish could be worth a 2:59 if you get a dew point around 60 or higher.

The easiest thing to do, lose some weight !

I’ll go ahead and say don’t just do 22 miles easy in that long run. You’ll learn nothing from it with how your body responds to running at MP tired and how you feel doing those miles at your goal pace. I’d say keep your structure of the other long runs and do 10 miles at goal pace with your race shoes and see what your pace is. If 10 miles feels good at that pace then you should be good in the race.

I’ve learned after many marathons that the pace I run in my long runs at MP is similar to the actual race because you’ll be fresh so those paces should feel easy. But the first marathon is a good mental test too. But assuming you’re averaging 50+ miles and doing some tempo work I bet you’ll be good.

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Why not over the next 2 long runs try a 7:00 pace and work down to 6:55 or start at 6:55 and work your way down to a 6:50ish? Throw in a few midweek tempos at 6:40ish and see how you feel. If all is good, go for it on race day.

BQ goal?

Thats intersting because I've heard from a few people that its good to run total time you anticipate running marathon in. I assume the learning is running for that length of time.

22 at 8:30-8:45 gets me 3:10 on my feet. so easy pace but not super easy.

Yes, those are definitely part of the plan. Trying those paces in the long runs. Tomorrow's run is 2 wu, 5x1 mile at 10K, 2 cd.

I also have a 2 wu, 8 at MP (but faster each 2 miles), 2 cd.

BQ time for my age group is 3:20 so unless I overcook it, I should get there.

Thanks!

It's why I asked the question.

I recently bought a super shoe (well almost super shoe, on sale) and it made a better than 2 min difference in a 10k. And I'm on the downhill side of life.
I'm not a fast runner and neither is the OP, although 3 hours is way better than anything I can do, there are 70 year old's that go sub 3 (and some don't cheat).
But that 2 mins plus would be an easy 8 minutes in a marathon and the bonus is supposed to be that they give a lot more back to the runners legs at the end, so "the wall" may be just over the finish line now.

Keeping my fingers crossed. Trying to break 3 hours in your marathon debut is ballsy and probably a little silly. It's also exactly what I'm thinking of doing, although I have a long way to go before it makes sense to even try (89' in a super flat half under near-ideal conditions so far).

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

I just mean that sometimes people are so fixated on time goals that they ignore whatever weather the day brings. It's like in triathlon when we run a half marathon in 70+ degrees off the bike. You can't attack that run like it's 50 degrees and you're fresh. If it's 65 degrees with a 62 degree dew point, for example, 6:50 pace would get an adjustment to 7:00 pace. If you go out on a day like that at 6:50 pace there's a good chance you average well over 7:00 pace. Pure running is tough because you're defined by a number at the end of the race so most runners go out and chase the time they trained for regardless of the conditions. If you get a good weather day, go for sub-3. If you don't, then take confidence that you're in sub-3 shape if you execute an equivalent performance.

I'd say be conservative. Walking any part of the marathon will cost more than starting a little slower. In fact, starting too fast in a marathon is very common because of the excitement around you and feeling good.

If you've never run a marathon the thing you are most likely to underestimate is nutrition. In fact, most runners underestimate this part.
60-90 g of carbs per hour is what will help you minimise the risk of slowing down after 30k. You should at least practice it a little in training and have a plan of how you're going to carry it.
Aid stations of most marathons almost never have gels, only water and gatorade at most - which isn't enough.

Then, if you're still feeling good at 35k you can go as fast as you want.

If you want to go for a riskier strategy, if there's a 3h pacer at the race or someone you trust, you could go with them as long as the pace is even and they don't start too fast. Running with others can help you sustain a faster pace as long as you don't compromise nutrition/hydration.

OP please don't do this. 60-90g/h for a 3h marathon is overkill and any gains from keeping glycogen topped up will be offset by the sloshing around and the extra weight of the food, should you choose to carry it. Yes, you'll minimize the risk of slowing down at the end of the race, but it will be at the cost of performance at the beginning of the race.

Running is about 100kcal/mile, so a marathon is ~2600kcal. You probably know you can reasonably store ~2000kcal in muscle/liver that can be utilized in a race, and at MP can get maybe 20% from fat. Carb load and have a decent breakfast and you're already ahead of target. Slip 4 or 5 gels in your shorts (safety pinning them to the inside of the side of your shorts is a tried and true method) and eat one every ~5 miles. Doing all of this your total expected glycogen loss is ~1600kcal (-2600burned + 500 from fat oxidation + 500 from gels). That's getting into the losing performance range, but the game here is to balance losses from glycogen loss with performance loss from digestion issues. You don't need to worry about bonking after you finish.

I do not think that is a bad rule but I think MP work in a long run is way more important when trying to run sub 3 than "time on your feet". I am going for low 2:40 at Chicago this year and I cap my LR at 2:38-2:40 (23 miles). My LR are warm up, steady mid z2, then MP (40-60 minutes), then CD. I have ran 13 marathons so a bit different in our current paths but I have learned that there is a big difference in doing a marathon and trying to run a fast marathon (and yes 3 hours is fast even if ST does not make it seem fast! Ha). But for pacing the marathon I would say go out at just over 3 hour pace then adjust when you get to mile 20. There can be a lot of time gained if you feel good at that point but way more time lost if you go out too fast (I did that in my first marathon shooting for sub 3).

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Good point that it's important to be able to tolerate it and it's also individual and some people can be fine below 60g.
I definitely agree that it's better to err on the side of caution rather than getting too much.

It's definitely true that towards the end you're getting the carbs to trick your brain and not because you actually need them. Personally, I'd take as much as my body can tolerate at the beginning and reduce towards the end rather than start too low and hope for the best. If you take too little there's no catching up. Towards the end I find very little with high frequency is more important than quantity.

40g per hour shouldn't be difficult to tolerate and is already better than the vast majority of amateur runners who maybe get a gel at 35k when it's already too late.

Reportedly, Kipchoge takes 100g per hour for a 2h marathon.

Thats what I'm leaning towards at this point. Going 6:55-7:00 for much of the race and hitting the throttle at the end if its there.

I'm not hell bent on finishing sub 3, but I feel like I'm close and it deserves consideration (not sure how many more marathons I'll run in my life).

My upcoming LR at MP will best inform me as to what is/isnt realistic possible.

Realizing weather may affect your LR. If the weather's not good, then don't get discouraged that the LR didn't go as planned (hoped).

Good luck.

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Not a coach. Not a FOP Tri/swimmer/biker/runner. Barely a MOP AGer.
But I'm learning and making progress.

If you run 6:55 (average) for 20 miles you'd be on 2:18:24 (ish). Those last 6.2 miles would need to be run at 6:42 pace. Good luck with throttle control.
@Mathematics has offered great guidance on a few gels (with plenty water).
Comes back to whether you want to give yourself a chance of going sub-3 or not. This may be your one and only marathon.

Did the workout you mentioned today.

10 easy @ 7:56 pace
4 @ MP (6:37, 6:46, 6:45, 6:44 in training shoes)
2 easy @ 7:51 pace

4 @ MP (6:41, 6:38, 6:41, 6:36 in race shoes)

I think that 6:50-6:55 is attainable for the marathon.

Am I wrong?

paces almost the same as race shoe as training shoe??? ideally a training shoe would be non carbon plated heavier shoe

Well done. I really think 6:50 is doable. Let us know how it goes!

It’s hard to say whether you’re right or wrong. That sounds like a very solid marathon workout, but whether it’s a good marathon pace indicator workout or not, depends on a lot of factors.

If those 7:50s are the fast end of easy, I think you’ll have a tough time (also, how long did your shoe switch take?) What was your heart rate / exertion level like on the two 4-mile blocks — particularly the second one? Did you practice fueling / hydration as you would in a race? How many miles a week have you run, on average, over the last two months (actually do the math on your numbers, don’t guesstimate). And how many miles this year? What pace are you running 3-6 mile tempo runs at? How well-rested were you for the workout today?

In my experience, workouts like this can be “faked” as a marathon indicator. If you go all in on those ‘MP’ miles and bury yourself, sure, you can hit the workout as written (I’ve done this for sure!). But you’d be fooling yourself into thinking it’s truly MP (All the more so with paces so far off MP for the rest of the run).

I reckon you ran 20 miles @ 7:25 ish avg pace. How does it sit with you to think about running those 20 miles at an average pace 30-35”/mile faster, then tacking on a final 10k also at sub-7 pace?

It was. I'll assume (possibly incorrectly) that the time similarity was due to being fresher at mile 11 versus mile 16?

Also, I wasn't going as hard as I could for miles 11-14. I was just trying to hit 6:45 pace. I probably could have gone faster.

I was working hard from 17-20 but not all out.

Lots of questions that I have all the answers to, but wont spend time answering them all.

I will say:

7:50 is not the fast end of easy
Not tapered/rested at all for today
Was not all in on getting those times for the workout

I posted this question a few weeks ago after having a better than expected half marathon time and wondered if I could find 4 minutes and get a sub 3 marathon.

I wasnt sure if I should push for it or not, most people on here thought no and I largely agree, but a few said yes and gave some thoughts on what could be done in training to evaluate in order to make an informed decision on race day. This was one workout. (plan called for 9 easy, 9@MP, 2 easy but I tried this instead).

Your first marathon? Let me quote Mike Tyson "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face"

You're gonna get punched in the face

Other than that - goals are nice, but expect to slip off your pace; when that happens, don't panic, don't crush yourself trying to catch up ... slip backwards and make new friends

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Rand - like you, I'm from Philly (although its been 20 years since i've lived there)

What happens when you tell a Philadelphian there's no way they can climb a greased pole? They are at the top within a minute.

Rocky executed his plan after getting punched in the face....

RedOctober. Go Birds. Its a Philly Thing.

the key is your speed at aerobic threshold (vt1),
many people try to improve it indirectly by increasing the second threshold (vt2). And it works, but if you are not able to run below vt1 at given speed, you will not complete the Marathon at such pace.

i would expose my example, as the counterfact.. My last marathon, i worked for a vt2 lower than "my personal best" (+1min at 10km, +1min30 at 21k during the preparation), aiming to complete marathon in 3h10-3h15.. but even then, I was able to improve my under threshold speed... and I was able to finish the marathon in my personal best below 3h.

with that I mean.. that your constraint could be at vt2 or speed @vt1... if you are able to work on it, you could improve your time.. but such improvement could be only possible improving your vt1

You have a point there (although Rocky won on his second attempt)


I was never fast, so I can't offer any specific training advice other than
Good luck & have fun

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Those answers are all good signs. If your weekly mileage has been over 50/week average for the last 2 months and your tempo run pace is ~6:10/mile or faster for 4-5 miles, then I’d say go for it - start with the 3 hour group from the gun (go no faster for the first 20 miles, much more to lose than to gain!).

Otherwise I’d have some reservations about telling you to shoot for sub-3 and I’d want you to clarify goals a bit more before pace planning.

I think I might agree with you about the importance of threshold paces, but can you define what you mean by vt1 and vt2?

Yes, but we don't know RPE or HR in the second 4 miles at MP. It 'should' feel a bit easier and HR might be a tad lower, but those are also mile 18-22 of the run, so there definitely would be quite a bit of fatigue.

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Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
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12 seconds in...

"you have said you guys thrive when you get punched in the face"

https://www.nbcsportsphiladelphia.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/castellanos-on-harpers-stare-down-game-3-home-run-fest/540369/


LOVE IT

How did the race go today? did you shoot for 3 hours from the start? Race report would be a nice way to close the thread :)

Thanks for asking and checking in. Race was yesterday and I planned to give a write up about how it went.

2:59:41. (BQ time for my AG is 3:20)

I went for it from the beginning. Weather was nearly perfect. Low 50's, cloudy and rained the night before and a 10 mph tailwind for the 2nd half of the run.
Plan was to go out a little slower than pace which wound up being necessary anyway cause of the crowded streets the first two miles.
Got into 6:50 pace after mile 4.

Plan was to stay at 6:50 and reevaluate at mile 15 to see if I thought I could go faster, stay at 6:50 or go slower. I was comfortable for most of those early miles and had some polite conversations with some runners by me. Even saw a guy who I ran and chatted with at my half marathon six weeks ago.

I knew at mile 13 if I wanted to finish strong and have a chance that I had to stay at 6:50. Trying to pick up to a 6:45 pace was out of the question. Miles 5-17 were all between 6:47-6:51.
I was hurting by mile 18 but still felt like I could hold pace. I saw lots of people stopping/walking starting at mile 19 and the frequency went up after mile 22.

Miles 18-24 went 6:55, 6:46, 6:50, 6:51, 6:53, 6:52, 6:50.

At mile 23, I was at 2:39 so I knew it was going to be close especially because I was suffering at that point. Mile 25 wound up being a 6:56 and I still had that pesky last 0.2.

Started to push with everything that I had for the last 1.2. Went 6:32 and 1:46 (5:57 for 0.3 per Garmin) to finish.

I was nervous when I turned the corner and saw the clock which read 3:00:47 and even though I knew it was the gun clock, I wasn't certain if my watch genuinely reflected the race start time for me. But as it turns out my watch was exactly what race clock had for me but i was nervous until i found my wife and she confirmed my time on the tracker.

I did NOT collapse at the finish as a few around me did, but I was sore as hell for the rest of the day and the start of the morning, but it was totally worth it.

I'm trying to figure out the math because there is something wrong with the time they gave me for my 13.1 split. I think they listed my time as the gun time because there is no way I ran a huge negative split that the difference in time indicates. (EDIT: Turns out I did ran a negative split but not as big as tracker times indicate. Per my watch 1st 13 was 1:29:14, 2nd 13 was 1:28:42 and I know the .1 at 13 was slower than the .1 at 26)

Lessons learned:
Easy runs, followed by at pace runs are great and all, but defintely dont prepare you as well for a full run at pace.
On training runs, stopping for water and a gel, to go the bathroom, change shoes and really anything providing a short break also give a bit of a false sense of confidence.
I can do even better with more run training
They have people to help catch those who collapse at the finish line

I had no real right to think I could actually do this given:
-first marathon
-only ran two 20 mile training sessions (this block/total in my life)
-only had two weeks of 50+ miles (but 8 in the mid/high 40's)

But...I just felt so comfortable running at 6:46 pace during the half and had so much to give at the end, I thought I could. I was right, but just barely and it was hard as hell.

Thanks to everyone on this thread for their help.

That is awesome. Love that you made it under 3 hours by :19 seconds!

Congratulations! I enjoyed following this discussion, and what a way to put it to bed 😉

The 19 second margin is awesome. Nothing feels as satisfying as having to dig dig dig to just barely reach an ambitious goal. Perfect!

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Congrats on running a really well executed debut marathon.

Many runners are thrown by a slow start and are tempted to regain "lost" time too quickly. Sounds like you ran a mature, patient and controlled race and avoided that trap.

Even if you were to lose 2 minutes in the first 2 km of a particularly crowded marathon, you only have to claw back 3 seconds/km over the rest of race to finish on schedule.

Marathon times sound so much quicker when they start with a 2.

Follow your plan and trust it. If feel good on the day make the most of it.

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Andrew Garwood
http://www.2xu.com
http://www.newtonrunning.com
http://www.ascendsport.com.au

Congratulations, good job and many thanks for proving me wrong!!!

Have fun in Boston (if that's possible LOL)

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Nothing like setting a goal and accomplishing it, congrats.

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Let food be thy medicine...

No matter what happened I was hitting one of my goals in this race, so I was gonna be happy no matter what, but....

If I had been at 3:00:04, being that close and just missing would have stung a bit.

100% on digging and getting to it.

The fact that I could dig at mile 26 and that I got that time is sooooooooo satisfying.

Awesome, well done! Congrats and some time off are both in order! (seriously, don't be too exuberant especially about running workouts, post-marathon speedwork has consistently been a prime source of injury for me)

Sounds like you have some aptitude for the distance and you crushed it in terms of splits and pacing. Things work out for some people this way and others never can nail the marathon distance and always wind up with a tough last X miles that give them a big positive split. Good luck if you go for Boston in 2025 -- 20 minute buffer on the qualifying time should be plenty :)

That's thread-worthy in itself. Those times when we've just hit or missed a race goal by the barest of margins.

Well done!

Case in point CJ Albertson Two Cities Marathon today. From his Strava.....


Hamstring felt good. Everything felt good. Idk what I was doing at the end. | Run | Strava