-I've never run a single mile that fast and never will;
-Even when I was running relatively fast marathons, I don't think that slightly slowing the pace would've gotten me that many more miles. It just beat me up too much.

Thought it would be intresting to see what Vdot calculator gave as eqivelent splits for short distances.

It predicted a marathon time of 2:27:33 So not close to world class.
But it only thinks the pace would drop 5s/km form 26.2 miles to 50 miles.
Seems the calculator is not built for Marathon+ 🤣



FYI reckon I could do a Marathon at this pace. Though need to test it at some point 👍

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Full-time Engineer / Part-time Pro Triathlete
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Yeah the big question is if there is a non-linear drop off in running times beyond ~2h, or if the marathon is such a large prize that the otherwise quasi-linear drop off has an outlier point at that distance.

If it's anything like power curves in cycling, one should actually expect a smaller percentage drop off with doubling of distance as the distances go up. This makes sense intuitively, the human limit for 2,000 miles wouldn't be that different than the human limit for 1,000 miles, but 1 minute pace is going to be noticeably different than 2 minute pace. The difference in race speeds under the marathon are around 5% for doubling of distance.

Found this from a reddit post 5 years ago.






Definlty looks pretty linear between 800m & Marathon
But then non-linear to 100k


Wonder what is to blame:
Just less focus at the distance, so shallower field of competitors.
Past 2hr fueling becomes a limiter
Something related to muscle fatigue & breakdown

---

Full-time Engineer / Part-time Pro Triathlete
Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/benwgoodfellow/
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Website - https://benwgoodfellow.wixsite.com/bengoodfellow