Chelsea Soldaro is BACK.//

I believe unfortunately she is not going to be a factor going forward in the T100 series, and perhaps even the Ironman one too. I have said this many times over the decades, and it usually plays out in each case. WHY does she win this race by over 16 minutes?? When I saw she was entered I figured she was validating and perhaps just a hard swim/bike with a reasonable run to try out some new nutrition or pacing strategies. But no, she goes out there and buries herself in the run for nothing, and now has all the disadvantages of a top run race with maybe a tiny record bonus?


I mean if you are someone like her attempting to do both series, it is hard enough without extra races, and certainly extra races where you bury the run in a marathon. You only have so many of those efforts in a career, certainly in a season, why the hell waste one when all she had to do was jog really for the win. It could have just been a long training day, like so many others that further ones season, but no, she had to dip into the well during a season where it most certainly will run dry at some point. Just gonna be sooner rather than later I'm afraid.


I really blame the coaches here though, it is there job to hold their race horses back when needed, and teach them about this stuff...

What’s to say she buried herself in the run? She is the most pure runner in the sport with the highest pedigree in pure running. Her prs speak for that themselves. (32:05 track 10k, 15:08 track 5k, all pre super shoes) From what I understand she ran hard the first half and then shut it down. Yes sub 250 seems fast to most but with her background it’s not as crazy as it seems to not need to go all out.

And to say she hurt her season? She now has nearly 7 months until nice and only has 3 pto races to do in between. It seems to me she may have set her season up perfectly to focus on shorter speed stuff now. Nearly all the other top women still need to validate for nice and a 70.3 for worlds if they want to go.

Further more McCauley outbiked her by almost 12 minutes in Kona and take away her penalty on Saturday and she puts 2 minutes on McCauley in taupo. Seems she may have figured something out on the bike.

What’s to say she buried herself in the run?//

50 years of triathlon history. You tell me, why did she win by so much, what is the reasoning for a racing pro with a more than full season??? Is that a smart move in your opinion?

Show me a runner of her caliber that made a successful transition from running to triathalon in the last 50 years. Maybe her running is diffeeenr.

Do you expect her to walk when she’s leading by so much? With her caliber of running clicking off 4:15 ks is probably not very challenging and that’s still putting time into the other women.

Triathlon is an endurance sport. If you look at an entire season like you look at a race, would you go deep at the very start? In fully with Monty on this. The human body isn't this perfect machine that just gets better and better in a perfect upwards trend.

There is a cost to that fast run. Just because you can, doesn't mean you should. You don't want to peak at the start. She pushed too hard for no gain.

Everyone saying how much Blummenfelt is used to load and conditioning after his pre Kona marathon and we get the truth a year later that when he got off the bike he felt like he had nothing left.

She can only put so much load on her body. Yes, she might feel fully recovered in 3 week. But when it's time to dig deep a couple hours into a race, she might find something missing.

I do agree that it's nice that she now doesn't have to worry about IM for awhile, but the same was true if she ran 10 minutes slower.

You should have the goal to win with as little effort as possible if you are playing the long game. Plus, the faster you run, the more potential you have for injury. It's an unnecessary risk.

All that said, here's why I think she did it and why it's almost OK in my view. She wanted to give her sponsors an epic result after a disappointing (to her) year last year. She wanted to show them they bet on the right woman.

But the rebuttal to that is, she won't show them that if she burns out this year or finds her ability to push just feels deflated. Odds of her either getting injured or saying something like, "I've been training well, but I just felt flat and empty in this race" at some point are pretty high based on the ambitious schedule alone. There's never a need to dig deeper than necessary to win.

The ideal goal in the race is to simply kona qualify. If the win comes fine, but don't race for it.

While I agree that you can only tax your body so much I just don’t think she dug into the well as much as you think for that run.

By your logic should no one do a hard full except for Kona or nice? What about haug last year at Roth? Later race in the year and she pushed hard and then showed well in Kona. Plenty of pros do at least 1 hard full in addition to championships. Just because the field couldn’t hang doesn’t mean she shouldn’t execute the plan she went in with.

And to her schedule. Maybe she wanted to switch it up and have some easier races? Last year didn’t go to plan with every race almost championship level and winning is a skill she may have had to re learn since Skye.

By your logic should no one do a hard full except for Kona or nice?//

You are not getting it. Not about whether you race hard or not, it is do you "have" to race hard. No one here is saying you dont go hard or into the well if need be, just that on the rare occasion you got it in the bag at mile 3 of the run, shut it down and do a long tempo run. You are delusional if you think a woman, any woman for that matter is running 2;49 on a legit Ironman course and not going hard. She is not the fastest runner our sport has ever seen, and she certainly is not immune from the ramifications of such efforts. In fact she may even be more prone to the negative impacts of over racing, certainly she has been thus far in her short pro career. I mean this was really a nothing race in the grand scheme, with a very weak field from what she is going to go up against in her next races. That is why I question the need to have buried it there, it will come back to haunt at some point, either physically or mentally, or both most likely...

What don’t I get? She was doing her only full race of the year and had a race plan and things to work on. Just because the field was weak doesn’t mean you don’t execute what you went there to do? So it was ok to “dig deep” if Anne or mathews was there? Is mathews done for the year if she has to dig deep to win a stacked Texas?

Who in your opinion is the greatest female runner the sport has ever seen?

And luckily we will see if she factors in 5 weeks or so in Singapore where I believe she factored last year for the podium.

I'd even say that she never needed to race hard at all. Just qualify.

If she finds herself in the lead, hold on as slow as she can.

She showed great decision making in her kona win race. She didn't get caught in bike battles. She road with others most of the way, rarely if ever in front. And she walked the aid stations if I recall.

That kind of measured effort over the race is the way I think she approach the season.

That said, she's better and faster than me, and I'll literally never be anywhere close to her shoes, so obviously she is better than me.

Let's just hope she didn't run the marathon on a single gel :)

Matthews dug deep in Texas last year and never really got back to form.

Haug digs deep in every race and comes to Kona consistently being not quite good enough.

I think Haug could win Kona again if she didn't always dig so deep in the run in multiple races during the year.

If I'm looking at it right, the year Haug won Kona she raced a single 70.3 and IM that year outside Kona. She ran 2:57 in Copenhagen that year and 2:51 in Kona. Smart.

You could add LCB as an example. She didn’t race a lot last year, which may have preserved her for the huge effort she put into training for and performing in Kona.

That being said, I think those critical of Sodaro may be under-stating the mental aspect. She clearly had a rough 2023, particularly from the mental health side of things. Her performance is NZ probably goes a long way toward addressing that, rebuilding her confidence and enthusiasm for racing.

And I think she has plenty of time to recover for the rest of 2024, assuming she gives herself enough of a break from pro-level training in the coming weeks.

I’m no expert but I’ll add this Monty. With today’s super shoes you can recover so much faster and the marathon doesn’t take near the physical toll on the body as it used too. Not debating whether it’s smart to win by 15 minutes when you can win by 5, but I think she’ll be fine if she’s smart with recovery.

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Let food be thy medicine...

That being said, I think those critical of Sodaro may be under-stating the mental aspect. She clearly had a rough 2023, particularly from the mental health side of things. Her performance is NZ probably goes a long way toward addressing that, rebuilding her confidence and enthusiasm for racing.//

Ok, but how does all this positive mental health not happen if she wins by 3 or 4 minutes, knowing she had so much more in the tank? What happens to her mental game if she pulls up lame now, or gets in a big tired hole, or any of the other negative aspects of over racing in a season? You think she will be able to look back on this race where she crushed the wind and feel better then??

Sodaro ran an average of 4:02mpk. I agree: 4:15mpk is a good solid pace, but she ran a lot faster, for no benefit and the downside @monty and @Lurker4 argues: hammering out a 2:49:59 was unprofessional. Sodaro remains 4th in IM speed running behind Haug, Philipp and Matthews but, tbf, she has only completed 4 IMs (a debut, two Konas and this). We do not know which of Sodaro, Matthews and Philipp leaving T2 together would win out. I loved Matthews' two word comment pre-Kona when Kelly asked her about what she'd do if Sodaro was with her group on the bike: "Drop Chelsea!" Respect between all those runners.
I guess like those other three, Sodaro just loves hammering it in her favourite discipline. But, with a long long season, last w/e was not the time: just get the win and the validation for completion. With the IMNZ weak SOF and silver tier her score will not be a PTO ranking counter at the end of the year, even with the 5% bonus (which might have been another reason for pushing the full 26 miles). One can reasonably premise the self-validation argument after her lack lustre 2023.

Matthews' schedule suggests a clear plan to try to do both: we'll see in San Francisco how she has recovered from Texas. Recall that after digging seriously deep at IMWC May 22 at St George (for #2, staying ahead of Haug after overbiking) she managed a 2:46 at Sub8, 4 weeks later (average power in both races the same). The T100 race (<210 minutes) is 6 weeks after Texas. Who else is going to be at Texas (not Ryf nor Philipp who I think are both validating in South Africa)? Moench, Langridge, Norden and Haug I assume. Where will LCB validate because she said she'd be doing Singapore (or has that changed with Miami swapped in for Singapore to give her an IM 'window')?
"Matthews dug deep in Texas last year and never really got back to form." Right. A second in the IM 70.3 World Champs at Lahti in August was so 'below form'. You're a hard lurker.
"Haug digs deep in every race and comes to Kona consistently being not quite good enough." Except for 2019 when she was good enough (ack you noted the 2019 races: don't know why she raced so little: assume injury/illness). And being beaten by LCB last October was not a sign of 'not being good enough'; it was an occasion where the winner performed out of her skin and way above form on both bike AND run. Haug biked really well (for her) and ran like the wind.

Well if LCB sticks to the plan of not doing Nice she of course doesn’t need to validate.

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Let food be thy medicine...

So if Chelsea dnfs or has a bad race she was a one hit wonder and is washed up but if she wins by too much she is unprofessional? Make up your freaking mind.

I didn’t say she ran the whole race at 4:15 ks. She went out hard the first half in under 4 minute ks but slowed down the second half like her race plan called for. Her average would still be under 4:15 because of the first half.

I have no idea how you put chelsea behind kat and Phillip. Phillip has only run faster than Chelsea one time over the full distance and that was Chelsea’s first IM when she wasn’t even in super shoes and Phillip was. Chelsea still ran faster last year in Kona even with a hurt knee which affected her bike so bad. Kat has never beaten Chelsea when they have raced let alone in the run portion of it. Someone who is confident they can win in the run would not feel that they must drop someone before the run starts. Also kats sub 8 run has the biggest asterisk of any run done in full IM ever because she spent literally no energy on the bike while drafting and was pulled along in the run.

Think the DNFs comment must be trying to address someone else's concern. You might wish to consider a mid-spectrum approach has merit.
Sodaro's pace (mpkm, these depend on the timing mats being where the splits say):
0-11km: 3:50
11-21km: 4:09
21-31km: 4:07
31-42.2km: 4:01
Average 4:02, hitting half way on exactly a 4:00 pace btw I see a runner going off hot (chasing McCauley) at 3:45mpk pace, easing off after the catch at 4k, but only a bit, consolidating back to T2 and then speeding up for the second lap.
I see no 4:15 pacing nor any easing off at half way. YMMV Her race plan "called for [this]" did it? Why?

"Sodaro remains 4th in IM speed running behind Haug, Philipp and Matthews" I suggested this based on their fastest IM runs> Have I got this wrong (Haug multiple in the 2:40s, Philipp at Hamburg and Matthews at Tulsa and also at Texas)?
"Kat has never beaten Chelsea when they have raced" Matthews was faster than Sodaro in both Collins Cups (different matches) on the run and overall, and slower at Oceanside on Matthews' 'not a comeback' race. If I was Matthews I'd like a start on Philipp and particularly Sodaro, and even more on Haug. They know that if Sodaro gets a good wheel and holds it (Kona 2022) she is a serious threat. As I said: "Respect between all those runners."
Do you know why she got a 5 minute drafting penalty in Taupo? Somewhere near the end of the first lap/beginning of second. Was she just unlucky?
You need to read up more on the Sub7/8 bike effort (for Skipper and Matthews) in terms of effort "literally no energy" on the bike compared with a 'normal IM'. She was "pulled along on the run": yeah right, to a 2:46 in the heat of the day. I recall being 'pulled along' to a sub-2:30 in London bitd.

She set the course record. What provides the greater mental benefit, setting a course record or finishing the race wondering if you could have set it had you not held back? I'd say the former. And, of course, none of us have any idea whether her sponsors provide financial benefit for a course record, which would be one more reason to go for it.


Just out of curiosity, in which year did she suffer the impact of over-racing? The year in which she did the most races--and completed two full distance races-- was 2022, and that one ended with a victory in Kona.

And why are you so sure she went too buried herself on the run? Do you know her bike numbers? What was her NP and how does it compare to her other full distance races? Is it possible that she went a bit easier on the bike knowing there were no runners in the field, leaving her more energy on the run? You seem to be sure a 2:49:59 is alone evidence that she put herself so deep in a hole that she will struggle to recover mentally and physically, but I think it is entirely possible that someone of her running caliber can run that pace and still leave something in the tank.

AB, I've never said you only get one good race a season. I'm saying a big season is going to have a cost and going deep has knock down effects for awhile. Kat did not bounce back after Texas. She raced amazing there and it came with a cost in subsequent races. Lahti was at the far end of the calendar, but in between those two she wasn't to form. I'm not saying she screwed up and was dumb, I'm just saying it takes its toll.

You already corrected your misjudgement of my remarks on Haug which demonstrates she's had better Kona performance when she races less. And I never said she was bad last year or the other years as a runner up. But that it wasn't quite good enough. That's obviously true. She was going for first. She's capable of first. Yes, she just got beat. But I don't think it's a stretch to point out 2023 where she raced a lot and had several great races was just a coincidence that by the end of the year, she was missing just a little bit, and maybe that was the difference.

Chelsea's results this year will speak for themselves. I'm happy to be wrong. I doubt that if she is later feeling flat, gets injured, or burned out, the pro "crush the run unnecessarily " people will attribute it to doing too much when it wasn't needed.

and, most of all, ending her day with a 3.05 marathon, instead of a 2.49 one, would haven't done much difference, in terms of impact on the body