My only comment would be that if you can't hold 280 for at least close to an hour then it's not really your FTP, and therefore it's not a very reliable number to base any pacing off of. If you can get closer to that hour mark after a couple of months of training, then you could use that as the benchmark. In terms of percentages, I seem to remember there was some guidance around 92-93%, but I can't vouch for that.

Maybe a 2x20 at your goal watts with 2-3 min in between and a short 2mi run off the bike.

Well said.

Isn’t FTP really defined as the power you can hold in a lactate steady state and athletes usually can hold between 30-70 minutes?

All in all the ftp from any of the tests helps establish zones for proper training and if it’s 10W off that’s not end of the world. I believe in a general progression in training so I may do 2x15’ @ 90% then 2x20’ @ 90% then the same two workouts but at 95-100%.

All this to bring back to original question of what workouts could help determine if I’m ready to actually hold a certain wattage for an Olympic distance race.

Where did you get 30-70 minutes?
I've heard it as 50-70 minutes.

Just a data point for you, over last 2 years my FTP has fluctuated between 300-315 and I have held 270-280 for olympic distance while being able to run sub 33 off of that. So 85%-93% of FTP. That said, depending on your physiology a ramp test could skew high (if you are better at VO2 and less trained aerobically). My ramp tests usually skew 5-8w higher than a standard 20 min test.

https://www.trainingpeaks.com/...w-testing-protocols/

I’m sure you can find links for it being as something different as well. I really didn’t want this to be a debate about how long you should be able to hold ftp for or what ftp is.

Do you have an example of a type of workout you had done before one of your Olympic tris that helped you determine the pace you wanted to sustain for the race?

Or was it more of a Im going to ride at an RPE of 8/10 or whatever and let the power be what it ends up being?

Do 3x20 mins best effort, in aero position on a similar race course, 5 mins easy between each rep. Avg power for the reps is a good indicator. Yes I'd say 85-95% is a good range to test in training to see how sustainable it feels. BTW using a ramp test ftp is probably the least reliable.
A good rule of thumb is that you can run your tri race pace at the pace you could run an open race in that is one distance longer. For example: 10k olympic run pace is equal to an open half marathon.

Another way to do it is a race simulation workout in training. I like to do: Swim including 5x300 at race effort. Bike 3x15 mins at race effort. Run 5k at race effort. You should be able to finish that 5k in training without feeling like you are fading or would struggle to do another 5k on race day at that pace.

Well, that's right from TP themselves.

From what Andy Coggan used to write, I remember him saying 50 to 70 minutes.

Using that to base a 40K TT from made sense because most trained cyclists could ride in that range. Trying to extrapolate a 30 min effort to a 40K TT doesn't make sense, there is a huge difference between 30 min power and 60 min power. If you can't hold 95% FTP for you 40K, that isn't your FTP.

The 90% thing is for triathletes having to run a 10K afterwards.

I think you should go out and do a 2X20' with 5min easy at 250 watts (average of the whole 45 min) and see if you can actually complete it.
If you can then maybe it would be a starting point. If you are completely gassed then your FTP is not 280 and you'll need to do progressions 1, 2 and 3.

Olympic bike power typically fall between 85-95% FTP, depending on fitness level. I think 90% makes sense as a target, given what you described. As far as workout go, I wouldn't place a ton of stock in a one off predictor type workout. Take confidence from 10:00-20:00 reps @ SS. You can also mix in some shorter reps @ SS, specifically designed to hold good aero position. Sometimes pushing power is easier on a trainer out of aero position. Just simple workouts like 4-5 x 6:00 @ SS in (good) TT position can help too.

I think run pace in an Olympic is roughly aligned with open half marathon pace. Would consider dialing it back a little from the 10 miler & then continuing to adjust based on race day weather.

Well put your money where your mouth is.. go for 40'@280 !

From the dude who invented the term FTP, Andrew Coggan, it's the power you can hold for around 1 hour or 40K...

Archived notes from Dr. Andrew Coggan on the Seven Deadly Sins (functional threshold testing methods) (osbmultisport.com)

I can't give you a single workout. I know for myself what I can hold in an Olympic distance based on the entire scope of workouts I've done in the months leading to the race. So, if I was planning on holding 250 (based on my reliably tested FTP), I would expect that I've done several/many workouts of various length intervals where I held 250 plus/minus watts.

Andrew Coggan has also gone on to say that he viewed ftp as a functional surrogate for for something to like maximal lactate steady state and in an endurance trained individual it’s an intensity that can maintained for 40-70 minutes. This was in response to being asked what he means by “about an hour”.

He also said that untrained individuals maybe even less than that (30 minutes or so). More you train the more you might be near the high end of that.

https://open.spotify.com/...zRxBbDR42pdaCV7owOhg

I’ll reiterate what I’ve said before. FTP is a great tool for determining optimal training zones. If it’s a few percent off that’s not the end of the world. I also was only conservatively estimating my ability to do my 280 for 40 minutes, maybe I can hold for longer.

The percent of ftp as a rule for pacing is also somewhat skewed cause someone who is faster and able to complete 40k in an hour should be able to ride at a higher percentage of ftp than someone doing it in 1:20.

Still curious as you trying 40'@280 then pushing beyond. I still think ftp of 30-70' is something a bit less that can be done daily than what you can do for hour threshold where you hit 2rpm at 1:00:01...

I think you might be losing the forest through the trees a little with all the FTP talk. You need to be able to do a 40K as fast as you can do it while still having enough gas left in the tank to run well. All I was saying is that I, personally, wouldn't use that specific number as any hard and fast guidance on how to pace based on the fact that you said you could barely hold it for 40 minutes. I think one of the problems with power meters is that some people get hung up on FTP numbers and percentages for pacing, only to find out on race day that that pacing strategy doesn't actually work for them. There are some people who will show up on race morning saying "I'm going to ride at 90% of FTP for this distance" without actually ever having gone at 90% of FTP for that distance. 280 watts is a starting point, but I would be doing workouts that will verify what I think can hold for that 40K. In other words, if you're thinking you want to hold 250-ish, do long intervals where you're holding 250-ish. You know, the ol' periodization general-to-specific thing. That way you know on race day that if you hold 250-ish you'll be good for the run. Then again, I'm not a coach and you'd probably kick my butt in an Olympic based on what you've told us, so what do I know!!

I don't use power meters (or any measurements) while racing. I do wear a sports watch to record it all, but I don't consult it at all while racing (except maybe the mile splits while running).

Sprint = Red line all the way - FULL SEND

Olympic = Slightly dialed back from Sprint intensity on the bike. Run with whatever is left in the legs.

I'm not sure if that's the best way, but that's how I roll. Leave it all out on the course - just try and not have poopy pants.