While I'd like to agree with you for any "normal" pro, Ryf has demonstrated she is still capable of showing up against a championship field and humbling them all after being similarly discounted.

She might yet still have one long course and a couple t100 surprises in store.

For sure. Ryf can rise to the occasion. But just surprising to see her so far back in a full Ironman. When was the last time she did that in a full and not a 70.3? To be honest too the competition was no where close to anything that she should struggle with even on an easy day. Even just a training day pace race should have seen her go better.

I also think we would be severely underestimating the competitiveness of pros like Laura and Daniella. Taking it easy is one thing but being that far back I doubt was the plan.

OK, thanks, it's tough to keep up with so many races. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

All the more impressive considering he was pulling for the winner Tom Pidcock at Amstel Gold Race a week ago!
https://www.instagram.com/...gsh=dmVlcGszbmcwcWN6

Ryf has been documenting her training on YouTube this season and has been clear that she’s not in prime shape and has been managing a hamstring injury. I think this was a check the box kind of race.

I thought his 49:07 swim as quite good, only 2:06 behind Amberger's 47:01. AFAIK, he is an AOS so 49:07 is really excellent, even if it was in a wettie. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

I stand corrected. I didn’t know that from how she did in Miami. It would definitely affect her run and maybe she just didn’t want to push it in South Africa.

And then he pulled on Wednesday at La Fleche Wallonne which had really rough weather. He must've flown from Belgium to SA shortly after, which is no easy trip.

Totally insane 7 days.

Yeah only realised that after my post when I saw his last Twitter post as I only watched the highlights of FW. The weather there was shite! Would have been interesting to have seen his result not having done 2 x 200+km road races in the week before!

Yes, a lot more sharing going on. Here's Ryf's review of a hard race:
https://www.instagram.com/p/C6DttMitaPo/
Extract:
"I got the validation for the World Championship in Nice. But first, my body and fitness need to improve before I can think about racing there.
"I got to enjoy the amazing South African crowd one more time. Thanks for all the cheering along the way. I definitely felt the love 💕
"Congrats to @martasan95 for the win and everyone who finished today in those conditions".

And here's Wurf's (he seems dead chuffed and references some prep races he's been dabbling in, this last week):
https://www.instagram.com/p/C6DJ2-fioCS/

Yeah too bad for Harry. Really just needs to put together something like a 3:00ish marathon & he'd be in the money/get solid PTO points. His 3 Ironmans are 2 DNFs & a 17th at IM Florida last year. Maybe he's just overcooking it a bit. Usually stomach problems are tied to pacing. You push too hard, you get stomach problems. He could give a minute back on the swim & 5min back on the bike to the run to what he's capable of. He ran a sub-70 open half recently. Definitely has 2:40s potential. Rooting for him to figure it out. A 2:50 gets him 6th & a 3:00 gets him 8th in this race.

agreed, even if only for confidence, a workmanlike top-10 would be better than leading for a while and then flaming out.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Well since you ask, I think Kona 19 was her properly 'so far back' race (+34 minutes), but she was not well (and only the previous month had seen off a super strong field in Nice (70.3WC)). In Kona 22 she was 29 minutes adrift.
"severely underestimating the competitiveness of pros like Laura"?
Zimmerman (who came #3)?
Jansen (who DNF'd)?
Madsen (who won Valencia)?
Philipp (ranked #6, who under-performed coming 4th to Madsen (ranked #66, but going to mid-40s))

I was referring to Laura Phillip and the people saying she just showed up to validate. I find it hard to believe she would just be fine with that result if she was not injured earlier in the year and coming back. An easy day for her should still see a victory over that field.

I agree: Philipp would have travelled to Spain to compete and win. I haven't seen people suggesting she was just doing it for one of two 70.3s to validate (though that will have been the primary reason to race it). Philipp doesn't seem to be near the sort of form in early season we've seen before. And she has another 70.3, Nice and six T100s in her calendar: a challenge (oh and Roth): on average a race every 4 weeks till end November - good luck with that.
Early season form (March):
In 2022 she won Dubai in 3:53 (ahead of Ryf who'd dragged her round the bike).
And in 2023 she won IMSA in a time (adjusted for a full swim as opposed to an 11 minute one) which would have seen her over 20 minutes ahead of this year's winner Sanchez.
NB One ell; two pees.