nothing to worry about. by the time the election starts Joe may be able to legally not leave office as a last official act of office.

Fake news CNN pole caters to the left & LBGT crowd so this hombre don't buy it.

Like the Dali trying to leave Baltimore, it is too late to change course.

I listened to some political analyst talking about this particular problem for Biden. Both he and Trump are effectively incumbents, but Trump also benefits from nostalgia. All Presidents see increased approval for their terms as time goes in, even Nixon. The most famous are probably Reagan and Kennedy.

So the Biden campaign’s job is to try to remind the swing voters about what they didn’t like during the Trump presidency and have sort of forgotten about. Like when I tell my wife I had fun on that trip we did years ago and she reminds me of the mosquitos and food poisoning. The Trump campaign of course will continue to paint current events in the most negative light possible. That is a much easier pitch as I sure feel my current headache much more than I remember food poisoning from 4 years ago.

Dems really need to start advertising everything they have accomplished and how it makes American lives better. Stop talking about Trump, stop saying how bad life will be if he becomes president.

As the election nears, Biden seems to be slipping more and more and Trump seems to be gaining more and more.

Lots of independent votes that really just want to be able to afford life better. Recent bias would say Biden is not helping in terms of food, housing and at the pump. That is where Americans are feeling it most.

I'm not sure your perception matches reality.

I think it's ridiculous that the Dems can't run someone other than Biden. Anyone half way decent should wipe the floor with Trump, as is, seems like most pundits I've heard are saying it could go either way.

Heard a journalist quote a recent poll that 70% of Americans don't want either Trump or Biden to be president. And when you consider Trump has his loyal MAGA base that pretty much means very few want Biden.

You're looking at the wrong data. Electoral college matters more. Popularity and the popular vote don't always win. Trump has reversed course in every single swing state over the past 9 months or kept his lead. Also 538 in 2016 had Trump losing, but within the margin of error, people forget that point.

Wisconsin
Arizona
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Georgia
North Carolina
Nevada

So now is it that polls are not accurate anymore?
From 2020 election, he needs to reverse I believe 30 electoral votes? There is A LOT of combinations where that can happen above from the states he lost in 2020.

FWIW I will be voting Biden, but every day that goes on and wars rage, inflation holds, interest rates stay up, and inflation challenges people living daily, I think Biden's chances continue to decrease. That is where A LOT of independent votes will come from.

First, there are only a tiny number of people who I wish would have a major health issue, and Joe Biden certainly isn't one of them (Putin is, for example).

With that said, I do think that the Dems would benefit from a health-related issue that would knock either Biden or Trump off the ballot.

Without Trump on the ballot, Biden wins. Without Biden, the Dems win.

Calm down. We have months to go. Things haven't even started ramping up yet. If we've learned anything about polling over the last few elections, it's that it can't be trusted, especially this far out.

It does boggle the mind how near recent history gets rewritten.

---

*****
"In case of flood climb to safety"

I think their pole is more like this.

---

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

On March 1980 Jimmy Carter was up 14 points on Reagan in the polls, in fact Carter led for most of the race. Ross Perot led both Bush and Clinton in June 1992. Early polls are mostly a waste of time.

Wake me up in September.

Something I don’t get about the reporting on the polls in general is that we only get posts about trump winning.

In October of last year trump was doing really well in the polls. Lots of posts about how Biden should drop out.

Then the stock market took off. Biden overtook trump in most polls - very little conversation about it.

Now Biden swinging back to losing, and more stories.

I really don’t believe any polls that 1) show trump winning nationally, 2) show either candidate crushing the other in states that were close in 2016/2020. Like in these years, Wisconsin/georgia/arizona/penn are all going to be really close.

---

"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Anyone who votes for GOP is fucked in the head. It’s true.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

No one forgets the 2016 polls. Not one person.

But I'm not sure of your point? Is your point that margins of error can only work in Trump's favor? So if he's ahead it's, if anything, an underestimate of how far ahead he is?

That's not how margins of error work. Particularly - speaking of 538 specifically - since they put their thumb on the scale more in Trump's favor these days to compensate for some of the polling biases they think caused the issues in 2016.

It's too soon to call shots. The race is tight now. It'll be tight in November. Trends you see now could reverse 3 times between now and then. The DNC / Biden campaign is sitting on a *ton* of cash, and have been holding it in reserve. Maybe campaign spending doesn't matter with Trump, since his cult of personality commands free coverage whenever he wants. With the charges and trials feeding into his grievance-victim narrative. Certainly possible. But neither would I rule out that it might matter.

It's hard not to get emotionally caught up in projecting what you'd like to see vs. what's actually there.

Thank you. This is it.