I hate to say this, but if I were the dictator of US triathlon, I would do something drastic in the womens team as it stands at the moment. Of course this will never happen, they dont have the foresight or the money to make it happen, but I believe this is our best shot at a medal, perhaps gold even.

You already have Knibb on the team, and yes, she will be challenged to get on the podium, but a solid lock for top 6 probably. Then you have Spivey and Katie, both proven top 6 finishers too. But in my dictator role, I would designate Knibb and Spivey to domestic for Gwen, doing everything in their bike power to get her to the lead group. This is going to be Gwen's big challenge going forward, starting at best in 2nd bike pack. But if all the best cyclists are also lead pack swimmers, then good chance that group never catches, and runners like Cassandra and Potter fight it out with one other for the medal spots. Dont see Knibb or Spivey getting there on an even run start out of T2, they will need a small break with a good gap for any hope, which is possible, just not probable. But that would be a break from the break, dont see those too often.

But by pulling Gwen up to the leaders, that could be our best bet, she would be the only one who could possibly run with those two. Crapshoot who gets it, but past performance suggests this as the best tactic to get an overall medal.

But this sport doesnt usually work that way, and you would have to pay Knibb and Spivey a lot of money to forgo their chances. Maybe you could talk Spivey into it if the actual discretionary pick is on the line, but Knibb is already there and will want her shot. Maybe if she had a running injury it would be possible, but dont think she sees herself as a domestic.

Anyway my thought experiment for the US to medal, feelings and fairness aside..

So if the olympics were next weekend, then no she cannot hang with the top ladies. But it is still a long ways off, and I have no doubt that in a years time, Gwen may once again be the best runner in the field, at worst top 3.

Has Gwen shown she can outrun the field in any of the WTS races she’s done this year?

Idk about out run but she's had the 1st/2nd/3rd fastest run split in every race she's been in this year & that's trending up. Fastest run in her back to back World Cup wins. Healthy margin of victory in Valencia. 2nd fastest run to Beaugrand in Sunderland. This weekend will be interesting. Her form has been getting better all season.

on the one hand, i agree. the trend is good, and she's got a year to sharpen the knife.

on the other hand, since gwen currently swims and bikes slower than beaugrand, running slower than her isn't any good. the absence of flora and gtb opens things up a lot, but i think beth potter probably likes her chances in a drag race against gwen too . . .

You don't actually take his post serious do you? Like no duh none of the US women want her to qualifty because it means they didn't qualify. So pretty much all of them with the exception of EA and GS are front pack athletes, so no duh they'll going to "ride hard" to not help her catch.

That post came out more as satire than real, lol. Especially from TC who on every PTN podcast when they talk about anything ITU related gives the "i'm bored" comment and/or is relieved of staying on the podcast. Love what he does, but this post is fake news.

I hate to say this, but if I were the dictator of US triathlon, I would do something drastic in the womens team as it stands at the moment. Of course this will never happen, they dont have the foresight or the money to make it happen, but I believe this is our best shot at a medal, perhaps gold even.

You already have Knibb on the team, and yes, she will be challenged to get on the podium, but a solid lock for top 6 probably. Then you have Spivey and Katie, both proven top 6 finishers too. But in my dictator role, I would designate Knibb and Spivey to domestic for Gwen, doing everything in their bike power to get her to the lead group. This is going to be Gwen's big challenge going forward, starting at best in 2nd bike pack. But if all the best cyclists are also lead pack swimmers, then good chance that group never catches, and runners like Cassandra and Potter fight it out with one other for the medal spots. Dont see Knibb or Spivey getting there on an even run start out of T2, they will need a small break with a good gap for any hope, which is possible, just not probable. But that would be a break from the break, dont see those too often.

But by pulling Gwen up to the leaders, that could be our best bet, she would be the only one who could possibly run with those two. Crapshoot who gets it, but past performance suggests this as the best tactic to get an overall medal.

But this sport doesnt usually work that way, and you would have to pay Knibb and Spivey a lot of money to forgo their chances. Maybe you could talk Spivey into it if the actual discretionary pick is on the line, but Knibb is already there and will want her shot. Maybe if she had a running injury it would be possible, but dont think she sees herself as a domestic.

Anyway my thought experiment for the US to medal, feelings and fairness aside..

Everyone needs to chill a bit here, this is not what I would do, or even advocate. It was just a thought experiment as to the best chance at a medal. I would never deprive any of the potential women their shot at the biggest stage and race of their lives. That is not how it works, at least in our country. I would however like to see USAT take a more aggressive role in the team selections, and actually pay for things like racing for points in a no win situation for someone. I would also like to see money paid if and when a domestic role arose. Not necessarily a preplanned one, but one that just popped up late in the game and presented itself.

Like someone gets a running niggle and will knowingly have a bad run no matter what who is already on the team. You then change the mindset and work out a plan to help the other two in any way possible. I still thing Gwen is a super long shot to make the team, guess we will know how long after next weekend. But kudos for her to even get this far in the journey, she actually has a shot, albeit a very long one..

if I were the dictator of US triathlon, I would do something drastic in the women's team as it stands at the moment.

Everyone needs to chill a bit here, this is not what I would do, or even advocate. It was just a thought experiment as to the best chance at a medal. I would never deprive any of the potential women their shot at the biggest stage and race of their lives.
Like someone gets a running niggle and will knowingly have a bad run no matter what who is already on the team. You then change the mindset and work out a plan to help the other two in any way possible.

You need to update your odds. She is in the grand final. She has shown a huge improvement since May. The grand final will not include the top 2 cyclists in the sport so a big bike group coming out if T2 is likely. This weekend she showed she has the chops to ride with a strong bike pack and she did take her pulls on the front.

She is at worst a dark horse to auto qualify at the grand final. It requires a Top 3 finish. She is the most likely American to auto qualify. I’d give her 20%.

This race didn't even have an A level field and was missing Knibb, Rappaport, Ackerlund. Would Sereno be considered higher? She is in the rankings obviously.

LOL, this was literally the most stacked field of the season. Rappaport and Ackerlund did race, did you not watch it?

I do agree it would be good if we did away with the "Gwen is the U.S.' best chance for a medal" nonsense. Her return is admirable. Even Slowtwitch posters noticed that short course triathlon exists after she came back. Nonetheless, the game has changed.

Here's me hoping that the discussion on Gwen making it is over and we can focus on the athletes that have a real shot.

Kasper 15th
Spivery 16th
Zafares 19th

Jorgensen 43rd.

This race didn't even have an A level field and was missing Knibb, Rappaport, Ackerlund. Would Sereno be considered higher? She is in the rankings obviously.

She did completely standard World Triathlon travel.

She isn’t that far off. Yokohama will be a big race next year for all of them. Her swim keeps improving, and she recently beat some of the girls who finished top-10 today. I don’t know how much better she needs to get to hang with the second pack today, but I wish we could have seen it.

Do these points move her any closer to getting starts?

If I’m Gwen, I see no reason not to keep plugging away.