Sounds like Blummenfelt may be jumping over to cycling next year.

30 is a way better number for PTO races but I don’t think they’ll be able to contract that many athletes. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle that and how they’ll sort out the rankings at the end of the year.

I think Yee and Wilde have got another Olympics in them, they're both only 26, sure Wilde will dabble in a few 70.3s though.

Where do you see that Blum may be jumping to cycling?

Olav said he was probably going to switch sports next year when he was on a podcast. I thing it was the Greg Bennet Show. Then on another pod I can’t remember at the moment someone alluded to it being cycling.

Possibly Learmonth, Holland, Zafares, Gwen, Duffy, Coldwell, Potter, Jonny Brownlee, Murray, Mola to add to the 1st post?

Hauser also.

Murray said he'll never go longer, he'll continue SC until he retires.

Can't see Mola going long either, I would have thought if had interest we would have seen him doing some already.

Schoeman, Birtwhistle have already dabbled, Mcelroy maybe.

When Renouf was interviewed (ProTriNews) on 28 Jan, wrt numbers in the field he recognised that 2024 would be a chance to see whether 20 or more than 20 was the 'right' number. I reckon it's evens whether they go to 25 or stick to 20. As we've seen there's plenty of opportunity for wildcard chances.
If these athletes do want to go long(er) (to earn $$) surely it's sensible for them to serve their apprenticeship. But (WPros only) we've seen Duffy and Learmonth and Stimpson struggle. As I said elsewhere, we've seen very few top (30) WTCS female athletes make it into the top PTO ranked 30 in the last 6 years, apart from Gentle and Knibb.

When I'm looking at this I pull up the World Tri Rankings and sort by YoB. Sure some younger ones will dabble. But if they aspire to LA28, that'll be it: just a dabble and maybe a wildcard.
https://triathlon.org/...onship_series/female
I limit my comments to WPros.
Athletes who can make the grade must be first quartile cyclists, and so many of the SC athletes aren't, they're happy wheel suckers.
It's not obvious (from available data), other than by reported reputation or repeated observed performance, whether an athlete is a quality cyclist ie one who does more than their fair share of pulling.
And how many of them are going to bang out a sub-1:20 half (ie be better runners than Knibb) - very few.
So here's a few:
Spivey, Klamer, van Coevorden, Betto, Kasper, (is Zaferes going to?), Bragmayer, (I'd have thought Taylor-Brown will stay SC, given fragility, but since Luis is sure to step up, maybe she will too). I think Knibb will try to keep her hand in at SC, with an eye on LA28.

It’ll be interesting to see what Knibb does. I’m sure she’d love to participate in a home Olympics, but she can clean up in long distance.

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Let food be thy medicine...

Agreed, especially Yee. I think Wilde’s skillset translates more easily, although both are great triathletes. I see Wilde winning 70.3 worlds at home, maybe doing PTO next year, but I feel like if he is still competitive he will do LA.

Some of it depends on how his swim is going. We’ve seen from guys like Matt Mac that a mid level WTS swimmer is very competitive into T1 at longer stuff.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

No idea what she wants to do, but Julie Derron seems to have a skillset that would translate really well.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I am not sure where you have seen evidence of Van Coevorden put out power on the bike. And really not convinced by Klamer, Kasper or Bragmayer on your list.

Meisner looks to have already half gone to middle distance, Schar would go well, but will probably stay at SC. Deron will be good to watch, and Nina Eim if she wants to - strong bike runner - but no idea about her appetite to do so.

I think you will see a number go across from the top next year as there will be good contracts on offer. Will be nice to see who has the ability on the bike.

Interested to know who the real wheel suckers you refer to are?

Nat V has already competed in a few 70.3 races, not sure if won any though, something would need to search.

Competed, yes. But here we are trying to work out who will do well. I have very high confidence she will not factor in any serious middle distance racing in the coming years - even if she does compete.

Although, it looks like she has been on a heavy S&C regime over the off season, so maybe a little more mass/power will help a bit. But won’t be enough to put her with the real thorough breads

The name of the thread is "Post Olympic step up athletes", I stated she was likely to be stepping up.

I was replying to Ajax who was discussing athletes who would ‘make the grade’, so we are discussing who would be good in that context

I referred to the absence of data on short course biking excellence hierarchy which make that filter difficult. So no evidence: feel free to list the dozen over 28yo women you think are strong bikers.
Van Coevorden has podiumed several times in 70.3s and matched (SB) and then outran Lawrence in this race: https://stats.protriathletes.org/...bahrain/2022/results
Kuttor-Bragmayer has shown strong biking: she just is an average runner (see Ibiza 2023 world duathlon v EPB).
Meißner is young and is only doing draft legal having missed out on Paris. She will surely revert to SC. Again Schär is super young. Dabble maybe.
I thought about Derron. She has already raced successfully draft legal and I assume will abandon SC and step up after Paris.
https://stats.protriathletes.org/athlete/julie-derron
She has Nina as a mentor.
Wheel sucker question: Half the field in any SC race, including WTCS, perfectly reasonably minimise their time with nose in the wind and do not take a turn. I'm not criticising but when/if they try to go long at 12m or 20m suddenly that's 250w for hours and most can't (or don't want to).
McElroy so far (dabbling): https://stats.protriathletes.org/athlete/matthew-mcelroy

Wilde said that he was targeting Nice 2025. I remember him mentioning in one podcast about his desire to do Kona in 2026. I'll bet this is gonna be the last we'll see of him in the WTCS circuit. He will probably be in the supertri series, some of the post-Paris PTO races, and then go all on for his home 70.3 WC. Maybe he he'll consider doing LA if Kristian proves that it's possible to go long and then come back to win the Olympics.

Alex will most likely go for another cycle especially since his partner will be contending for LA 2028. Would be fun to see him try a T100 race though. Heck the way Tomas Hernandez ran in Texas makes me really curious on how fast Yee could run in long course.

Most of the USA guys trying for Paris,other than Mcqueen I think, are getting up there in age 30+ will any try to hang on until LA or all go long do ppl think?

Wilde certainly has the tools to become a superstar at longer distance (I hope he sticks around at ITU cos Yee will have no competition at all, especially if the French move up also) Wilde used to have a habit of going off in races and fading towards the end and he also has a lot of bad luck in races, mechanicals, going the wrong way, dropping swim caps etc etc.

Maybe as he matures he'll iron all these things out cos they'll amplify over longer distances you'd have thought.

Luis and Le Corre (34) have tested the water and are older so I assume both will jump. Bergere (28) has raced and won one 70.3 a year (Lanza/O'side/Valencia): will he and Coninx stay 'in the programme' as they have at least one more Olympic cycle where they can be part of a dominant French force? You'd think the money on offer in long course would change behaviours. FFT money is good and they're up the WTCS sharp end so earning good money there and in Super League. We'll see.
https://triathlon.org/...athlon_rankings/male

If Nat VC and Bragmayer go to middle distance and are successful, I’ll be surprised. But good luck to them.

Agree it is hard to tell who is actually strong on the bike, although i wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the people who just sit in the pack are actually quite strong, they just never have to show it in SC.

Of the people who finished top 20 in the WTS last year I think the following have a chance of being good at middle distance (whether the PTO money is enough of a lure from them, I don’t know): Potter (this will be interesting to watch if it happens), Cass (but she almost certainly won’t go), Spivey (interested to see if she is as much of a power house on the bike as people claim), Coldwell (really depends if she gets selected for Paris as to whether she goes up), Waugh (think she will chase money), Eim (deceptively strong bike run), GTB (not sure how motivated she will be), Linderman, Knibb, Zaferes, Deron.

Of those above, I think probably half will go across properly, I would expect 2-3 of them to be in the top 10 in the world pretty quickly. But it is hard to judge the top in the world right now with so many women missing the T100 events at the start of the season.