Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Diabolo] [ In reply to ]

Mar 11, 24 21:22

Post #626 of 849 (4347 views)

For the relay, would we say first man is the most “protected”? I’m curious to see how Matt Mac looks. If he is back to health this year he seems like a possibility to stay with the group into T2 and run with the leaders.

I probably need to go back and watch some of the first legs last year to see how much things are getting split up.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Diabolo] [ In reply to ]

Mar 12, 24 4:00

Post #627 of 849 (4250 views)

Diabolo wrote:

Have been away from Slowtwitch for a few days, so not necessarily replying to you specifically Brooks. Great discussion by the way.

To me it seems like USAT's choice is kind of the same between the individual and the relay (but not exactly the same).

If they decide they want to select the best team to guarantee a chance at secondary medals (silver or bronze) then you choose between Spivey and KZ (and possibly Kasper) for the second individual AND relay spots. Knibb is your best bet for a medal in the individual then, and the combination of Knibb/Spivey gives you a higher floor for the relay. In that scenario I think it's a no-brainer then and you select Spivey (2024 form permitting). She deserves it more than KZ in this Olympic cycle.

If you're shooting for the stars (gold), then you select GJ for both the individual (no-brainer really) and the relay (hear me out). In that case (relay), you put Knibb in 2nd and GJ is your anchor. She is probably the only one if it comes down to that last run that can bring gold (well, Rappaport too, but she has even more variability than GJ and slightly lower ceiling too). The only spanner in the works is the relative weakness with the second US man in the relay (which may doom them no matter what anyway). A Spivey/Knibb combo may be needed to make up for any deficit as a result of that 2nd man.

But I think something like Seth Rider (likely deficit after the run), Knibb (to bring the US back in contention at the front), Pearson (give the relay to GJ with the lead of even potentially with a couple seconds in front) and Jorgensen is I think my pick for the US relay in that Gold as objective scenario.

For the individual, I think I would have already picked the team by now as Knibb, Spivey, Gwen.

i would suggest that if you already have made your pick that you dont understand the difference of world cup level and world series level as if you understood it you would say you wait until you have proof gen can perform at world series level including transitions which have not been great so far.

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [pk] [ In reply to ]

Mar 15, 24 14:43

Post #628 of 849 (3939 views)

GJ was interviewed about Abu Dhabi on the latest PTN pod. Apparently Max Stapley went off on WT on the Tri Mockery pod this week.

Basically wasn't given any chance to reschedule, the individual race would have likely gone off with only rain at the end as worse. Essentially said the govt would "arrest" anyone who did outdoor activiiteis and we dont need a "blood money" 2.0 (see Starky).

Next event with be Indoor WC in France end of March.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Mar 15, 24 14:43

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Mar 19, 24 12:17

Post #629 of 849 (3537 views)

Have enjoyed the thread. Jumping in late. I believe Yokohama is the last auto qualifier for the USA women to make the Olympic team and it will take a podium to check that box. That is a tall task for any of the USA women, since Abu Dhabi was cancelled and now most all other countries are using Yokohama and Cagliari to select their team. This means a stacked field, that is probably going to be even more deep than the Paris Olympics (5 USA women at Yokohama versus 3 at Paris for example). If GJ gets to start in Yokohama (i think she does?, but its close in points between her, KZ and Gina Soreno), and can finish top 3, then she deserves the spot on the team. But Im going to need to see her race at a top WTS race and be one of the top 3 USA women, because none of the current metrics support this.

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Shawnbonsell] [ In reply to ]

Mar 19, 24 12:40

Post #630 of 849 (3506 views)

I think most big federations are using Caglari as the more important event and it's only 2 weeks after Yoko. I kinda see Yokohoma turning into Sunderland '23 where it was very obvious it was a weaker field. It likely will be missing 50% of the normal front pack, but apparently may have both Duffy (can she run?) and Knibb which will certainly be no good for GJ (if she struggles front pack swim ability).

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Mar 19, 24 17:02

Post #631 of 849 (3427 views)

Which countries have Cagliari over Yoko? With Abudhabi cancelled you only have to look at the start lists for the world cups to see that Yoko will still have a great field. Hautulco may be the exception.

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [chrisb12] [ In reply to ]

Mar 19, 24 17:07

Post #632 of 849 (3424 views)

Isn't GB and FRA going off Caglari "showcase"? I don't think any have anymore AQ status, but at this point it's about showing fitness. All I've heard for ages is that most of the Euro countries was using Caglari as a "showcase" event and I think only USA is using Yoko of any of the big countries as an AQ event.

GB's pathway with an emphasis on spring olympic distance race (which I've heard all along was going to be Caglari)

We now spring forward to 2024, and any remaining quota slots that could be left to be filled.
We are now onto ‘Phase 3’, and decisions here will be made in June 2024, shortly after then end of World Triathlon’s Olympic Qualifying cycle, which finishes on 27 May 2024.
Here, an athlete can be nominated if they are considered to be a realistic individual medal contender. How is that assessed:

Prioritising performances from a (TBC) Olympic distance WTCS race in 2024, and
Consideration of the same list of factors referenced above, plus any 2024 World Triathlon races.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Mar 19, 24 17:15

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Mar 19, 24 17:25

Post #633 of 849 (3407 views)

Aus also have yoko as their final auto, not sure about other countries though.

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Mar 19, 24 22:42

Post #634 of 849 (3306 views)

In theory Lombardi could have qualified at Abu Dhabi but you are right. No more AQ’s

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [SheridanTris] [ In reply to ]

Mar 20, 24 1:00

Post #635 of 849 (3239 views)

SheridanTris wrote:

In theory Lombardi could have qualified at Abu Dhabi but you are right. No more AQ’s

well with french females its very simple they let only 3 start at wolrd series level so thats the 3 to go. and i gueass lea connix is the standby athelte.
with germany the last male spot it goes to the person highest in the oly ranking. schonburg is very much in the driving seat there. ther german oly qualification is one of the most straightf forward where peoole really know where they are and was to make sure they have 6 people at the startline and nobody can hide ie get a slot outside the top 30. 5 out of 6 atheltes can prepare for the games totally focused.
personally i think this is the way to go .

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Mar 20, 24 1:17

Post #636 of 849 (3230 views)

have to imagine jonny brownlee would be happy with that. he's always gone well at cagliari.

____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [iron_mike] [ In reply to ]

Mar 20, 24 4:15

Post #637 of 849 (3173 views)

I think JB is pretty much set for the MTR pathway over individual glory. Hell I wouldn’t even start him in the individual race, or I would make him race for Yee and dnf the run. Him finishing 9th/13th/17th/24th does nothing for GB. His value will be in he’s basically their best mtr guy along with yee. But he’s going for his 4th Olympics, it’s not too shocking that his best days are behind him. Father Time is usually undefeated unless your Brady or lebron james apparently.

He’s had basically a top 2-3 itu career all time irrelevant to how he races individually in Paris. His career is already cemented as one of the best ever to do this. At this point he’s in it for the pure enjoyment of sport so to speak, for “1 last shot”. To me he and KZ have a lot in common. It’s pretty easy to recognize their 10k speed is not what it once was to be medal contenders but the MTR basically offers them an “2nd chance” so to speak. With their abilities and the run *only* being 1500m, I think allows athletes a better chance to hold on much easier than it does over 30 mins of running.

Again it’s absolutely bonkers to me that WT went with ioc and race rosters have to be same athletes for both races. Like I get it, if they didn’t it would not be an mtr in the Olympics. But the 2 race dynamics really aren’t close to being the same. Both races lose value when roster spots are “wasted” by having to race both.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Mar 20, 24 4:34

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Mar 20, 24 6:47

Post #638 of 849 (3101 views)

Yeah, I agree the OD Tri and the Mixed Team Relay distances are really 2 completely different events but I think the IOC doesnt want to increase the number of athletes going to the Olympics, but wants to promote mixed gender events and the mixed team relay, utilizing athletes who already were there came about.

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [ In reply to ]

Mar 26, 24 17:33

Post #639 of 849 (2704 views)

Noticed Gwen is racing 2024 World Triathlon Indoor Cup Lievin - how will she do and how does this position her on points for AQ races?

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Mike J] [ In reply to ]

Mar 27, 24 9:30

Post #640 of 849 (2395 views)

T1 and T2 skills will be critical and that 1st 1-2 laps of the bike is going to be on fire with power output. As long as GJ beats GS she will finish 5th American prior to Yoko start list. If she has a bad day and GS goes top 3 (I don't know how reality either one can even finish top 5), GS will pass her (and KZ, technically GS is 7th ranked American now) for 5th American in the rankings....I think the pool super short swim will def benefit both, likely more so GS vs ows, but any T mistakes will be severely costly in this format.

Should be nuts watching this race, just pure speed, and I do believe if you are lapped you are out on the bike (I would think that's obvious).....but I can't see that confirmed within the athletic guide.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Mar 27, 24 9:48

Post #641 of 849 (2391 views)

Thought I saw somewhere on FB that maybe KZ is doing this race now too?? Or was that an old post?? Now that would really be a great thing for the selectors, because about as close as you can get to an MTR like format..

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [monty] [ In reply to ]

Mar 27, 24 12:33

Post #642 of 849 (2292 views)

She needs to do it if she wants to gurantee her chance to make Yoko, but I as of now she's not on the start list, but it's also likely only updated 1 time a day. I think Thur is the last time you can enter due to the seeding of the heats. So we'll have to wait and see. Wouldn't blame her if she didn't, lots of travel she's already done.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [monty] [ In reply to ]

Mar 27, 24 15:26

Post #643 of 849 (2182 views)

kz is on the start list for the E World Triathlon Championships on 4/13. That might be what you saw on fb?

Last edited by: Uncle Phil: Mar 27, 24 15:26

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Uncle Phil] [ In reply to ]

Mar 27, 24 18:01

Post #644 of 849 (2116 views)

I think you might be right there Phil, but sure would like to see here at that indoor race with all the players she is fighting with for a spot...Think Spivey is doing that race too..

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [monty] [ In reply to ]

Mar 28, 24 5:34

Post #645 of 849 (1934 views)

Spivey has now withdrawn. Only GJ and GS remain for US.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Mar 30, 24 14:02

Post #646 of 849 (1705 views)

That was a hell of a run in the final. Fatigued from earlier rounds, yes, but that’s about the closest to MTR distance you can get to showcase your ability without actually doing a MTR.

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [MP1664] [ In reply to ]

Mar 30, 24 14:05

Post #647 of 849 (1692 views)

She has clinched her Yoko spot.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Mar 30, 24 14:11

Post #648 of 849 (1674 views)

She certainly stated her case why she should be on the team!

BTW - I thought that was the most exciting race I have seen in a while. I liked this format better than SuperTri indoor.

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Mike J] [ In reply to ]

Mar 30, 24 14:20

Post #649 of 849 (1646 views)

Agreed Super Tri Arena Games is great but an actual real run would make it much more interesting and exciting. Well done to the organisers in France today👏👏👏

Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Mike J] [ In reply to ]

Mar 30, 24 14:46

Post #650 of 849 (1601 views)

Is her run strong enough to outweigh her still S and B issue. That’s the question if you are talking about mtr. They sat up 3 wide for 2 laps and she finally caught on the final few laps, so she’s still missing that initial surge. And there will be no “regrouping” with effort in mtr. If you don’t get on wheels no way in an outdoor event was she catching.

To me she’s going to make the team coming from likely 30-45s down in Yoko. But she’s mtr backup even with an effort like that.

Especially if she goes 2nd. Rider likely gives her a 4-5s deficit at the hand off unless Pearson goes 1st. Which would keep the US in it longer imo. You want 2nd leg to be in front. I think onlj pearson can acccomplish that. Unless you want to use knibb early.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

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