I thought the talk of Gwen getting a spot would stop after her performance yesterday but obviously not. I think Spivey should be in.
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Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [aerobean]
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Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [pk]
[ In reply to ]
another year isn't going to get a 38-year old a swim she never had. women's triathlon has improved exponentially since 2016 and the swim and bike now really matter. the days of spotting the front group a minute and running them down are over when the front women are running 33s (or faster) and swimming and biking faster than everyone else. stick a fork in paris for her.
the really interesting development yesterday was KK's best race since gold coast in 2018. i think she has put herself in a great spot and it will come down to her and katie (depending on how cagliari goes). spivey now is a lock (unless usat is off the reservation).
the really interesting development yesterday was KK's best race since gold coast in 2018. i think she has put herself in a great spot and it will come down to her and katie (depending on how cagliari goes). spivey now is a lock (unless usat is off the reservation).
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [mag900]
[ In reply to ]
she was 1.40 or so down in cagliari last year and 40 sec today
her take out speed in levin was solid . she did get a bit of a draft there but still after 18 month or so swimming i would not be so negative and athlete like her can reinvent herself, back then she did not really have to worry as she was so dominant,
the issue is the bike but this was also better than last year.
anway while she likely cant win world series races anymore she can still be worldclass after some more training ,and she has no future in t100 with her bike.
she is the lionel sanders of itu and it would be good for the sport if she stays a couple of years in the sport .
she is the only itu athelte that really gets clicks on slowtwitch.
her take out speed in levin was solid . she did get a bit of a draft there but still after 18 month or so swimming i would not be so negative and athlete like her can reinvent herself, back then she did not really have to worry as she was so dominant,
the issue is the bike but this was also better than last year.
anway while she likely cant win world series races anymore she can still be worldclass after some more training ,and she has no future in t100 with her bike.
she is the lionel sanders of itu and it would be good for the sport if she stays a couple of years in the sport .
she is the only itu athelte that really gets clicks on slowtwitch.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [kajet]
[ In reply to ]
kajet wrote:
This is a real puzzle for me. Gwen is a professional. She said she was trying to qualify to race the mixed team relay for the U.S. Transitions are critical in the MTR even more than in individual racing. Transitions don’t require talent, yet she continues to struggle with them (not just on World Series level).Forgot about this. The initial narrative behind her comeback was about missing out on the MTR experience. That was somehow lost and turned into how she was travelling all over getting wins and being a dark horse for the individual podium because of her run ability and that the swim and bike just needed to folllow.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [ajthomas]
[ In reply to ]
ajthomas wrote:
She’s bad at transitions because she’s not athletic in that way. She’s lanky and uncoordinated- she’s always looked awkward on the bikes as way of example.Sorry, didn't convince me. You can't be athletic and coordinated enough to swim 1500 m in 19 minutes but lack the athleticism or coordination to buckle your helmet under 5 seconds.
ajthomas wrote:
What’s not okay is to question someone’s commitment based because they aren’t good enough.I used the word "puzzle" on purpose, precisely because I was not questioning her commitment. If it was about a lack of commitment, there wouldn't be a puzzle but a solution.
"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [kajet]
[ In reply to ]
kajet wrote:
This is a real puzzle for me. Gwen is a professional. She said she was trying to qualify to race the mixed team relay for the U.S. Transitions are critical in the MTR even more than in individual racing. Transitions don’t require talent, yet she continues to struggle with them (not just on World Series level). Meanwhile Knibb, who came second and no amount of transition improvement would have put her in the first spot, spent half her interview making fun of her “bad” (better than Gwen’s) transitions and vowing to practice them every day until the Olympics.
it puzzels me that you use the only ahlete in the top 30 , that gwen beat in both transitions, to use to underline your argument how bad gwen is at transitions.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [kajet]
[ In reply to ]
If you weren’t questioning her commitment then I misunderstood. And we will simply disagree that it doesn’t take a specific talent to be good in transition.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics
[ In reply to ]
Talbot had a pretty absurd take in PTN's latest pod saying that the women's race dynamic hasn't changed much. They're a bit out of their depth without Chelsea Burns when talking about short course.
Just take Yokohama 2013-2015 (2016 was non-wetsuit) which Gwen all won. She swam front pack in those races swimming 19:01, 19:18, 19:18. (20:30 in 2016). The front pack swam 18:20 yesterday which is 5% faster than Gwen's median time at her peak. To be fair she still swam 18:56 yesterday.
The bike is where things things have changed a lot. She rode 1:03:30, 1:04:29, 1:03:58, 1:01:51 from 2013-2016. The winners of Yokohama from 2021-2024 have all had bike times between 58-59 minutes. So that's 5 minutes or 7.5% faster.
Now it's no question that Gwen is a beast on the run with splits of 32:44, 33:43, 32:36, 32:15 in pre- super shoes. She ran the second fastest yesterday at 32:56.
I'm sure tri-stats can make a more detailed comparison of time gaps across eras, but to say that race dynamics haven't changed much is misinformed. It's a disservice to the current athletes. To people like Duffy who pushed the competition to another level.
It doesn't help that Talbot, Kyle, and Patrick can't be objective when arguing Gwen's case. But she's no longer a front-pacl swimmer. The other women are riding harder. And she can't run herself into the podium anymore at this level.
Just take Yokohama 2013-2015 (2016 was non-wetsuit) which Gwen all won. She swam front pack in those races swimming 19:01, 19:18, 19:18. (20:30 in 2016). The front pack swam 18:20 yesterday which is 5% faster than Gwen's median time at her peak. To be fair she still swam 18:56 yesterday.
The bike is where things things have changed a lot. She rode 1:03:30, 1:04:29, 1:03:58, 1:01:51 from 2013-2016. The winners of Yokohama from 2021-2024 have all had bike times between 58-59 minutes. So that's 5 minutes or 7.5% faster.
Now it's no question that Gwen is a beast on the run with splits of 32:44, 33:43, 32:36, 32:15 in pre- super shoes. She ran the second fastest yesterday at 32:56.
I'm sure tri-stats can make a more detailed comparison of time gaps across eras, but to say that race dynamics haven't changed much is misinformed. It's a disservice to the current athletes. To people like Duffy who pushed the competition to another level.
It doesn't help that Talbot, Kyle, and Patrick can't be objective when arguing Gwen's case. But she's no longer a front-pacl swimmer. The other women are riding harder. And she can't run herself into the podium anymore at this level.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [runningeconomy]
[ In reply to ]
runningeconomy wrote:
Talbot had a pretty absurd take in PTN's latest pod saying that the women's race dynamic hasn't changed much. They're a bit out of their depth without Chelsea Burns when talking about short course. Just take Yokohama 2013-2015 (2016 was non-wetsuit) which Gwen all won. She swam front pack in those races swimming 19:01, 19:18, 19:18. (20:30 in 2016). The front pack swam 18:20 yesterday which is 5% faster than Gwen's median time at her peak. To be fair she still swam 18:56 yesterday.
The bike is where things things have changed a lot. She rode 1:03:30, 1:04:29, 1:03:58, 1:01:51 from 2013-2016. The winners of Yokohama from 2021-2024 have all had bike times between 58-59 minutes. So that's 5 minutes or 7.5% faster.
Now it's no question that Gwen is a beast on the run with splits of 32:44, 33:43, 32:36, 32:15 in pre- super shoes. She ran the second fastest yesterday at 32:56.
I'm sure tri-stats can make a more detailed comparison of time gaps across eras, but to say that race dynamics haven't changed much is misinformed. It's a disservice to the current athletes. To people like Duffy who pushed the competition to another level.
It doesn't help that Talbot, Kyle, and Patrick can't be objective when arguing Gwen's case. But she's no longer a front-pacl swimmer. The other women are riding harder. And she can't run herself into the podium anymore at this level.
I'm afraid the pod's time spent on Jorgensen (whilst understandable) was unbalanced.
Little mention of Knibb! Virtually no mention of Spivey's great result who has surely fixed that second slot.
Some discussion of Kasper but didn't understand the suggestion she 'politic' Zaferes out of Cagliari. ?
https://www.triathlon.org/...ies_yokohama1/627955
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [runningeconomy]
[ In reply to ]
when it comes to female short course tri i would just ignore pro tri news its just so embarrassing.
they live in the trump reality where elections and gwens olympic chances are stolen .
they live in the trump reality where elections and gwens olympic chances are stolen .
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [pk]
[ In reply to ]
What GJ has been doing this year and a half is remarkable: from 0 to top 15 in a stacked world series BUT I think it is not enough. World cups and WTCS events are two worlds apart. The above analysis is right: the swim is faster-the bike is much faster-the run is faster than 8-10 years ago. She used to be a middle-front pack swimmer and cyclist, and a uber runner. Now she is a middle-back pack swimmer and cyclist, because the level is so much higher, she has also been away for 8 years and she is older. I would love to see her in Paris, but IMHO there are more women in US that can do better: Spivey should be the 2nd pick and the 3rd for Zaferes (she is the most consistent amongst the rest, knows how to race and could be a good alternate for the relay in case that Knibb or Spivey are injured). If Gwen had resumed triathlon just after Tokyo 2021 maybe she could have been in the discussion, but the medals right now are too far ahead. There will not be a big bunch in T2 in Paris because you have Knibb in the same team. That is just enough.
Someone asked"may she race in T100 San Francisco?" I don´t think so. She has always claimed she does not like middle-long distance.
Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P
Someone asked"may she race in T100 San Francisco?" I don´t think so. She has always claimed she does not like middle-long distance.
Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Pat0]
[ In reply to ]
Pat0 wrote:
I thought the talk of Gwen getting a spot would stop after her performance yesterday but obviously not. I think Spivey should be in.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [runningeconomy]
[ In reply to ]
I believe her goal was another Olympics. It will be interesting where she pivots next. A broadcasting gig with a network? NBC no longer has Diamond League. Maybe she will get offer for future Olympic broadcasting. The Networks like former gold medalists. And she is well spoken and down to earth. Frankly I see that as her next possibility.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [aerobean]
[ In reply to ]
aerobean wrote:
Essentially shouldn't the discretionary pick be for someone that has a shot at the podium in Paris? I understand that technically all these people are in position to be picked, but realistically isn't it really just Zaferes, Jorgensen, and Spivey? I feel like each one of them has a legit case. Zafares podiumed at the last Olympics, Spivey has consistently been one of the top American athletes the last few years, and Gwen is a former gold medalist and has proven through a lot of Gold Cups that she still has some juice left in the tank. If Gwen could find that first swim/bike pack, then all bets are off for the run.
Honestly, I hope Gwen makes it despite how brutal it is for Spivey to miss another Olympics. It just feels like on the right day, Gwen could do something special in Paris. Maybe I'm crazy or maybe I'm just thinking what's the best storyline.
I know I’ve already said it on the ITU thread, but I agree, Give Spivey a spot now so she can focus on Paris. See what Katie does in Cagliari, and if it isn’t amazing pick Gwen to give you a puncher’s chance if the packs come together.
USAT’s job is to win medals, and this covers bases. Smarter people than me like Mags900 are doubtful the race will come together, but I don’t see why not cover that possibility.
I feel bad for Kasper, but she seems to have a Kevin McDowell ceiling. Great triathlete, would love to see her in T100 San Fran.
Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Ajax Bay]
[ In reply to ]
Ajax Bay wrote:
runningeconomy wrote:
Talbot had a pretty absurd take in PTN's latest pod saying that the women's race dynamic hasn't changed much. They're a bit out of their depth without Chelsea Burns when talking about short course. Just take Yokohama 2013-2015 (2016 was non-wetsuit) which Gwen all won. She swam front pack in those races swimming 19:01, 19:18, 19:18. (20:30 in 2016). The front pack swam 18:20 yesterday which is 5% faster than Gwen's median time at her peak. To be fair she still swam 18:56 yesterday.
The bike is where things things have changed a lot. She rode 1:03:30, 1:04:29, 1:03:58, 1:01:51 from 2013-2016. The winners of Yokohama from 2021-2024 have all had bike times between 58-59 minutes. So that's 5 minutes or 7.5% faster.
Now it's no question that Gwen is a beast on the run with splits of 32:44, 33:43, 32:36, 32:15 in pre- super shoes. She ran the second fastest yesterday at 32:56.
I'm sure tri-stats can make a more detailed comparison of time gaps across eras, but to say that race dynamics haven't changed much is misinformed. It's a disservice to the current athletes. To people like Duffy who pushed the competition to another level.
It doesn't help that Talbot, Kyle, and Patrick can't be objective when arguing Gwen's case. But she's no longer a front-pacl swimmer. The other women are riding harder. And she can't run herself into the podium anymore at this level.
I'm afraid the pod's time spent on Jorgensen (whilst understandable) was unbalanced.
Little mention of Knibb! Virtually no mention of Spivey's great result who has surely fixed that second slot.
Some discussion of Kasper but didn't understand the suggestion she 'politic' Zaferes out of Cagliari. ?
https://www.triathlon.org/...ies_yokohama1/627955
Ajax and crew, I did not follow the entire analysis but what you all seem to be saying is for Gwen to compete, she has to swim faster than she used, she has to ride substantially faster than she used to meaning she gets to T2 with less gas in the tank, and even with supershoes she is running slower than she used to. Still pretty good, but if the entire peloton uses more TSS to get to T2 so does she and super shoes or not, she's not quite in the game for the top spots mainly because the level of competition in the first two legs has changed? That seems about right.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [devashish_paul]
[ In reply to ]
She’s one of the best runners in the sport. She used to be the best.
I actually don’t agree with the assessments that the women’s sport has progressed dramatically. She got 15th this week and she’s clearly not the same athlete she used to be. I know this is a bit arbitrary but I’d say she’s 5% short of what it takes to win like she used to. 4% of it is she’s older and has been out of the sport too long so she simply isn’t as good as she used to be and 1% of it is the overall competition is better.
I actually don’t agree with the assessments that the women’s sport has progressed dramatically. She got 15th this week and she’s clearly not the same athlete she used to be. I know this is a bit arbitrary but I’d say she’s 5% short of what it takes to win like she used to. 4% of it is she’s older and has been out of the sport too long so she simply isn’t as good as she used to be and 1% of it is the overall competition is better.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [ajthomas]
[ In reply to ]
The age is part that I don’t think people are realizing. I didn’t until them mentioned it before the race. She 38 at this point and there is no way around that being older for short course. Even if she started a year earlier to get back I'm not sure if she could have made up that gap.
She got much closer than I expected, but not being able to swim towards the front missing the first/second group is too much to overcome. Especially when the US does have a few people up front now that have a better chance of pulling something off.
She got much closer than I expected, but not being able to swim towards the front missing the first/second group is too much to overcome. Especially when the US does have a few people up front now that have a better chance of pulling something off.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [runningeconomy]
[ In reply to ]
Excellent analysis, I think the only point I will argue is that her 32:56 on super shoes is not as impressive as all her splits pre-super shoes. Although they are clearly swimming and biking faster than her good ol days.
Agreed on Talbot C et al, numbers is not their strong point and there is a heavy bias towards GJ.
I really hope T. Spivey makes it to the Olympics. And it will be fun if she beats GTB ;-)
Agreed on Talbot C et al, numbers is not their strong point and there is a heavy bias towards GJ.
I really hope T. Spivey makes it to the Olympics. And it will be fun if she beats GTB ;-)
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [ohanapecosh]
[ In reply to ]
ohanapecosh wrote:
I have been lurking on this thread since it started and still haven't really figured out how they will select the Olympic team. But it really makes me appreciate the Olympic Trials model used by track and field (and the marathon) in the United States. Get everyone on the line all at one time and let them compete head to head - first across the line goes to the Olympics. No one would ever have selected Molly Seidel in the marathon, and she won an Olympic medal in one of the most competitive events at the games. This has happened many times before. The Olympics, like the trials, is a high stakes, high pressure event on which competitors have one chance and one chance only to get it done. I think a similar high stakes trials selects people who can perform in that kind of environment.I came to tri from a running background & said this at some point in the lead-up to Tokyo, not really understanding why the team is picked the way it is. I was told a Trials race wouldn't be fair because the pack dynamics would be different from a WTCS race. I could go back and forth on that point & if it matters but why not name a WTCS race a trials race then for the last spot or even both spots? Put the top-5 ranked non qualified athletes on the start list for Cagliari & then the top-1 or 2 US athletes make the team. Idk if Gwen should go to the Olympics or not but she should get to start the next WTCS race since results at that race are going to influence selection.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [ajthomas]
[ In reply to ]
I actually don’t agree with the assessments that the women’s sport has progressed dramatically. She got 15th this week and she’s clearly not the same athlete she used to be.//
I agree, but there are more ladies doing what just a couple did 10 years ago, and since the nature of the sport is a group dynamic, the actual races are faster now because of that. More swimmers at the front, more ladies taking hard pulls in the break, all translates to an overall faster race. And it doesnt have to be in time necessarily either, but in the difficulty in the surges that happen too. And of course there are many now that have upped their running paces, now on par with someone like Gwen, or just a bit behind.
15th was a great place for her, but if you watched the race, it was the absolute best she was ever going to do, and she got very lucky several times to get there. From her 40 second deficit in the swim, she had a chance to make the small chase pack that stayed only a minute off the leaders at T2, but she faded back to group 3. And from there she must have got dropped again and faded to the back group 4. There was no video of this, but the splits told the story, and it looked like she was over 2;30 back at some point in the bike and fading.
But through a quirk of fate, one of the strongest riders in the front pack got a flat, and ended up in the back groups. Somewhere along the line the back group merged with group 3 and it became massive, and super easy now to hide and just sit in. And that group started to make time on the leaders and group 2, no doubt through Kingma's efforts and a few others. So instead of the back group being 3 minutes down, they were just 2 minutes, and all together. I know looking at places it looks like Gwen passed a shit ton of runners, but reality is she just started at the end of that group with her shitty transitions, and then ran through them instead of starting ahead with a good T2.
So to me I figure everyone who comes in a group, they are all on an even setting, if it is 20th to 50th, they are practically all 20th. Starting in 50th(for example) and passing those 30 lesser runners right in front of you, is not some great accomplishment, but a testament to your lack of positioning. She had a very good run, one we would expect from her, and through some luck in the bike, she got to start close enough to get that 15th spot. But at no point in the entire race was she ever in it, she could have been, but from the pontoon on she went backwards until the run, all the way to the back too..
The swim is just too hard for her and she has to go all out and is gassed. Then the bike power needed to get in and stay in a group is too hard, and being gassed from the swim just has her trailing back until she can catch her breath, and then settle in whatever group she ends up in. She is being dictated a race she cannot control, or even mitigate at the front and middle, so it is all survival until the run. And no doubt if she ever were to get good enough to be in that 2nd pack, take her turns, her run would suffer too. No one is immune from that in triathlon, that is why often the fastest runs come from the back..
I do hope they can give her one last shot, dont know all the details of how that happens, but if sacrificing Rappaport and Gina is the solution, they should do it..I think Kristen is now in the drivers seat for #3 on the team, but Katie should she have a good race, be the next up. That was one dam great race from her in a big loaded field, no real weakness and just steady all the way..
I agree, but there are more ladies doing what just a couple did 10 years ago, and since the nature of the sport is a group dynamic, the actual races are faster now because of that. More swimmers at the front, more ladies taking hard pulls in the break, all translates to an overall faster race. And it doesnt have to be in time necessarily either, but in the difficulty in the surges that happen too. And of course there are many now that have upped their running paces, now on par with someone like Gwen, or just a bit behind.
15th was a great place for her, but if you watched the race, it was the absolute best she was ever going to do, and she got very lucky several times to get there. From her 40 second deficit in the swim, she had a chance to make the small chase pack that stayed only a minute off the leaders at T2, but she faded back to group 3. And from there she must have got dropped again and faded to the back group 4. There was no video of this, but the splits told the story, and it looked like she was over 2;30 back at some point in the bike and fading.
But through a quirk of fate, one of the strongest riders in the front pack got a flat, and ended up in the back groups. Somewhere along the line the back group merged with group 3 and it became massive, and super easy now to hide and just sit in. And that group started to make time on the leaders and group 2, no doubt through Kingma's efforts and a few others. So instead of the back group being 3 minutes down, they were just 2 minutes, and all together. I know looking at places it looks like Gwen passed a shit ton of runners, but reality is she just started at the end of that group with her shitty transitions, and then ran through them instead of starting ahead with a good T2.
So to me I figure everyone who comes in a group, they are all on an even setting, if it is 20th to 50th, they are practically all 20th. Starting in 50th(for example) and passing those 30 lesser runners right in front of you, is not some great accomplishment, but a testament to your lack of positioning. She had a very good run, one we would expect from her, and through some luck in the bike, she got to start close enough to get that 15th spot. But at no point in the entire race was she ever in it, she could have been, but from the pontoon on she went backwards until the run, all the way to the back too..
The swim is just too hard for her and she has to go all out and is gassed. Then the bike power needed to get in and stay in a group is too hard, and being gassed from the swim just has her trailing back until she can catch her breath, and then settle in whatever group she ends up in. She is being dictated a race she cannot control, or even mitigate at the front and middle, so it is all survival until the run. And no doubt if she ever were to get good enough to be in that 2nd pack, take her turns, her run would suffer too. No one is immune from that in triathlon, that is why often the fastest runs come from the back..
I do hope they can give her one last shot, dont know all the details of how that happens, but if sacrificing Rappaport and Gina is the solution, they should do it..I think Kristen is now in the drivers seat for #3 on the team, but Katie should she have a good race, be the next up. That was one dam great race from her in a big loaded field, no real weakness and just steady all the way..
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [devashish_paul]
[ In reply to ]
I think the analysis is pretty good, but the bike is flawed as the front group is riding faster, not the individual women, and so if Gwen were to improve her swim and come out with the front group, she would have a chance to hold the wheels (or pretend she is Spanish and sit in and do nada). The swim is where she has fallen back the most, and it will likely be why this race will where her Oly quest ends. There is little hope of a second pack swimmer finding the right uber cyclist allies to bridge to the front pack that includes Knibb and Duffy, etc.
"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [runningeconomy]
[ In reply to ]
runningeconomy wrote:
Talbot had a pretty absurd take in PTN's latest pod saying that the women's race dynamic hasn't changed much. They're a bit out of their depth without Chelsea Burns when talking about short course. Just take Yokohama 2013-2015 (2016 was non-wetsuit) which Gwen all won. She swam front pack in those races swimming 19:01, 19:18, 19:18. (20:30 in 2016). The front pack swam 18:20 yesterday which is 5% faster than Gwen's median time at her peak. To be fair she still swam 18:56 yesterday.
The bike is where things things have changed a lot. She rode 1:03:30, 1:04:29, 1:03:58, 1:01:51 from 2013-2016. The winners of Yokohama from 2021-2024 have all had bike times between 58-59 minutes. So that's 5 minutes or 7.5% faster.
Now it's no question that Gwen is a beast on the run with splits of 32:44, 33:43, 32:36, 32:15 in pre- super shoes. She ran the second fastest yesterday at 32:56.
I'm sure tri-stats can make a more detailed comparison of time gaps across eras, but to say that race dynamics haven't changed much is misinformed. It's a disservice to the current athletes. To people like Duffy who pushed the competition to another level.
It doesn't help that Talbot, Kyle, and Patrick can't be objective when arguing Gwen's case. But she's no longer a front-pacl swimmer. The other women are riding harder. And she can't run herself into the podium anymore at this level.
Talbot didn't know what ITU was in 2016.
He's good for the sport with the quality of content he produces. But overall Tri knowledge needs a bit of work.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [CPT Chaos]
[ In reply to ]
I would argue that the front group is riding faster because of the individual women who make that group. Going back to Yokohama, Duffy went back-to-back in 2017-18 because she rode well. Zaferes went got silver in 2017-18 and gold in 2019 from a strong bike and swim. The entry of GTB and Jessica Learmonth in those years took it a step further with more women to share the pull. Spivey got her first WTCS podium in Yokohama if I'm not mistaken. After 2020, Knibb and Kingma were added into the mix and that front group was just hammering it. But I agree that having a good swim can give someone the opportunity to hold the wheel just like what Summer Rappaport did when she got silver in 2019 and 2021 and even what Periault did in 2022 and last weekend. The case of Ashleigh Gentle is pretty illustrative of how it goes the other way around. She's dominating the T100 series right now, but her swim gaps in the WTCS just became too much to overcome despite a solid bike and an out of this world run.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Adman]
[ In reply to ]
runningeconomy wrote:
Talbot had a pretty absurd take in PTN's latest pod saying that the women's race dynamic hasn't changed much. They're a bit out of their depth without Chelsea Burns when talking about short course. Just take Yokohama 2013-2015 (2016 was non-wetsuit) which Gwen all won. She swam front pack in those races swimming 19:01, 19:18, 19:18. (20:30 in 2016). The front pack swam 18:20 yesterday which is 5% faster than Gwen's median time at her peak. To be fair she still swam 18:56 yesterday.
The bike is where things things have changed a lot. She rode 1:03:30, 1:04:29, 1:03:58, 1:01:51 from 2013-2016. The winners of Yokohama from 2021-2024 have all had bike times between 58-59 minutes. So that's 5 minutes or 7.5% faster.
Now it's no question that Gwen is a beast on the run with splits of 32:44, 33:43, 32:36, 32:15 in pre- super shoes. She ran the second fastest yesterday at 32:56.
I'm sure tri-stats can make a more detailed comparison of time gaps across eras, but to say that race dynamics haven't changed much is misinformed. It's a disservice to the current athletes. To people like Duffy who pushed the competition to another level.
It doesn't help that Talbot, Kyle, and Patrick can't be objective when arguing Gwen's case. But she's no longer a front-pacl swimmer. The other women are riding harder. And she can't run herself into the podium anymore at this level.
The HABs club of PTN tends to put out incredibly ignorant takes and shows their biases and sometimes posteriors way to often. If they want to more than a sideshow they could clean it up a whole lot.
Adman wrote:
Talbot didn't know what ITU was in 2016.
He's good for the sport with the quality of content he produces. But overall Tri knowledge needs a bit of work.
https://triathlon.org/athletes/profile/98846/talbot_cox
Pretty sure the homie had dreams at one point. But also was dating someone on the ITU circuit back then...
Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.
Last edited by:
TheStroBro: May 12, 24 20:10
CPT Chaos wrote:
I think the analysis is pretty good, but the bike is flawed as the front group is riding faster, not the individual women, and so if Gwen were to improve her swim and come out with the front group, she would have a chance to hold the wheels (or pretend she is Spanish and sit in and do nada). The swim is where she has fallen back the most, and it will likely be why this race will where her Oly quest ends. There is little hope of a second pack swimmer finding the right uber cyclist allies to bridge to the front pack that includes Knibb and Duffy, etc.Whatever pack Gwen has been in, at least with the cameras on it, it seems like Gwen always the last rider.
She wouldn't last 1 lap on the back of the front bike pack. She pop right off. We see this happening all the time in the front bike pack. Even look at Taylor Knibb in Yokohama. She was recovering or doing something to keep going from front to back. But there were times where the surging of the front left an uncomfortable gap for most people but her.