windywave wrote:

Crime....it's up.

Well, no, it isn't. I appreciate that the right-wing talking heads say it is, or that it feels like it is, or that it sure seems to be, but that doesn't make it true.

The challenge for Biden's campaign is to have people understand that, in spite of a some ugly videos of people doing smash-and-grab robberies at the Apple store.

https://www.nbcnews.com/...-says-fbi-rcna144100

Well, no, it isn't. I appreciate that the right-wing talking heads say it is, or that it feels like it is, or that it sure seems to be, but that doesn't make it true.

The challenge for Biden's campaign is to have people understand that, in spite of a some ugly videos of people doing smash-and-grab robberies at the Apple store.

https://www.nbcnews.com/...-says-fbi-rcna144100

Do you think those items are going to outweigh the Republican record on abortion and women’s issues generally? Or outweigh personal views on Donald Trump and the MAGA movement? I think those are hard to overcome.

I chose that phrasing instead of Trump winning for a specific reason.

Immigration

Crime

Transgender

Inflation

I base this off of listening to moms around the area.

Immigration.... Measels outbreaks here in the Immigration center have spread to the general population. Vaccine is somewhere between 90% and 100% effective and they're getting worried their kids will get it. Immigrants begging in out area. They've spread from the city and now stand on corners and in grocery store parking lots with their signs. They don't like that one bit.

Crime....it's up. It scares them. Neither states attorney candidate (Democrat primary is all that matters) is a get tough on crime type. Election is after summer which could be F-ing brutal. Toss in the potential for riots at the convention.

Transgender... they don't mind it in theory until their six year old daughter sees some junk flopping around in the ladies locker room.

Inflation....Shit be more expensive. People I know that are usually extremely price insensitive are now asking comments on how expensive things are.


Analysis: Women more often then men vote Democrat. Abortion isn't that big of an issue to them for a variety of reasons and the above is more tangible offseting that rebuttal (also Illinois has abortion carte blanche and if it was a strict referendum on it they would vote for abortions) .

Whether Biden is responsible for the above is immaterial because it wasn't like this before him.

Lose the soccer moms lose the election IMO.

Immigration is a bigger issue here because Texas has been dumping them here. Chicago is Chicago crime wise but it's worse now. Yes I live in a liberal bubble relative to the rest of America which is why this could be bad for Biden.

The thorazine crowd in here will lose their shit but we all also know they have problems processing simple concepts.

wild that all the soccer moms have your exact same views.

I thought I addressed the abortion issue. At a certain point it doesn't matter since they have birth control, have /want more kids can go out of state etc.

It's hard to say....abortion doesn't come up at soccer games or the playground but the above do.

I don't think it could cause a vote for Trump per se but perhaps a lack of motivation to "need" to vote. Biden will still win Illinois but if similar thought processes are happening in suburbia in swing states.....

Great nationwide statistic....immaterial for two reasons....Nationwide doesn't matter only local and perception counts more in this case comrade

I agree. Lose soccer moms --lose election and that currently the soccer moms have issues. I'm guessing though that you did not follow up with the key question. Could they in good conscience pull the lever for the other guy? I'm further guessing that they admit to that being a very tough call. I will further guess that the moms in the swing states are also savvy enough to know withholding their vote could result in electing the worser guy and even the almighty is not going to solve some of those issues they feel now.

I thought I addressed the abortion issue. At a certain point it doesn't matter since they have birth control, have /want more kids can go out of state etc.

It's hard to say....abortion doesn't come up at soccer games or the playground but the above do.

I don't think it could cause a vote for Trump per se but perhaps a lack of motivation to "need" to vote. Biden will still win Illinois but if similar thought processes are happening in suburbia in swing states.....

I chose that phrasing instead of Trump winning for a specific reason.

Immigration

Crime

Transgender

Inflation

I base this off of listening to moms around the area.

Immigration.... Measels outbreaks here in the Immigration center have spread to the general population. Vaccine is somewhere between 90% and 100% effective and they're getting worried their kids will get it. Immigrants begging in out area. They've spread from the city and now stand on corners and in grocery store parking lots with their signs. They don't like that one bit.

Crime....it's up. It scares them. Neither states attorney candidate (Democrat primary is all that matters) is a get tough on crime type. Election is after summer which could be F-ing brutal. Toss in the potential for riots at the convention.

Transgender... they don't mind it in theory until their six year old daughter sees some junk flopping around in the ladies locker room.

Inflation....Shit be more expensive. People I know that are usually extremely price insensitive are now asking comments on how expensive things are.


Analysis: Women more often then men vote Democrat. Abortion isn't that big of an issue to them for a variety of reasons and the above is more tangible offseting that rebuttal (also Illinois has abortion carte blanche and if it was a strict referendum on it they would vote for abortions) .

Whether Biden is responsible for the above is immaterial because it wasn't like this before him.

Lose the soccer moms lose the election IMO.

Immigration is a bigger issue here because Texas has been dumping them here. Chicago is Chicago crime wise but it's worse now. Yes I live in a liberal bubble relative to the rest of America which is why this could be bad for Biden.

The thorazine crowd in here will lose their shit but we all also know they have problems processing simple concepts.

Great nationwide statistic....immaterial for two reasons....Nationwide doesn't matter only local and perception counts more in this case comrade

wild that all the soccer moms have your exact same views.

That's great. Try to claim that in some way you are right, when you made a statement of fact ("Crime is up") that is actually dead wrong.

Adding "comrade" at the end doesn't make you any less wrong.

If measles are a big issue, it would seem like people would blame this on people not getting vaccinated, not blaming immigrants.

Given how many right wing people became anit-vax recently (used to be a left wing point), it would seem like that would actually be the issue. If you have the measles vaccine you cant get it right?

Great nationwide statistic....immaterial for two reasons....Nationwide doesn't matter only local and perception counts more in this case comrade

wild that all the soccer moms have your exact same views.

The reason he may lose is the perception of several issues. Reality is not very relevant in voting and the Democrats have long had a problem moving people.

Immigration.
This is an issue decades in the making. There is not a sudden invasion. We have a shortage of low wage workers then refuse to create a workable solution for those who want to do those jobs.

Crime....it's up.
It's not. But people feel like it is. If we returned to the crime rates from the early 90's people would freak out. Presidents don't really do crime though. But they get the blame for it. https://counciloncj.org/...d-2023-crime-trends/

Transgender
This is a giant fucking non-issue that is just the latest ginned up wedge issue. And it works. It is a sad commentary that people are so easily manipulated but here we are yet again. BTW - there are family changing rooms in an awful lot of situations where a 6 year old would be changing with an adult. Of course these same people would freak the hell out if a transgender man went to enter the women's locker room. People who focus on this should be smacked with a shovel. We are going to need a lot of shovels.

Inflation
The world shot trillions and trillions of dollars into the air over several years. This is the least shocking bout of inflation in history. And we didn't experience an absolute crash when millions of people stopped working all at once so the cost seems pretty much worth it. But yeah, now we have to pay the piper.

Whether Biden is responsible for the above is immaterial because it wasn't like this before him.
This statement ignores reality and pretends things are suddenly worse when they aren't. Like I said, people think some of these things are issues and reality does not matter, so it isn't like you are unique in your views.

You left off the biggest one. The dude is old. If he suddenly looked as vigorous as RFK Jr. it would be a walk.