Well, no, it isn't. I appreciate that the right-wing talking heads say it is, or that it feels like it is, or that it sure seems to be, but that doesn't make it true.

The challenge for Biden's campaign is to have people understand that, in spite of a some ugly videos of people doing smash-and-grab robberies at the Apple store.

https://www.nbcnews.com/...-says-fbi-rcna144100

Do you think those items are going to outweigh the Republican record on abortion and women’s issues generally? Or outweigh personal views on Donald Trump and the MAGA movement? I think those are hard to overcome.

---

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

Reported crime might be down, because in many places attempting to report it is a COMPLETE waste of time. Because DA's will do nothing.

---

I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

Great nationwide statistic....immaterial for two reasons....Nationwide doesn't matter only local and perception counts more in this case comrade

wild that all the soccer moms have your exact same views.

I think you’re saying the moms in your area suffer from illogical thinking?

Or do you think they are correct? Are they perceptive to a degree that the dads in your area are not?

I thought I addressed the abortion issue. At a certain point it doesn't matter since they have birth control, have /want more kids can go out of state etc.

It's hard to say....abortion doesn't come up at soccer games or the playground but the above do.

I don't think it could cause a vote for Trump per se but perhaps a lack of motivation to "need" to vote. Biden will still win Illinois but if similar thought processes are happening in suburbia in swing states.....

I think your title is correct, and I think if they don't take the chance of loosing seriously they will as was the case with Hilary. They need to get the message out that they have done good things and there are some things like inflation etc that is global and not a US only issue... many of these are not related to Federal government.. and I am sure if they enforced measles vaccination that would really help with the message... though you are correct it is almost completely avoidable with vaccination.

It's all about messaging and whether they can change any minds.

I agree. Lose soccer moms --lose election and that currently the soccer moms have issues. I'm guessing though that you did not follow up with the key question. Could they in good conscience pull the lever for the other guy? I'm further guessing that they admit to that being a very tough call. I will further guess that the moms in the swing states are also savvy enough to know withholding their vote could result in electing the worser guy and even the almighty is not going to solve some of those issues they feel now.

Not at all but I've heard the above multiple times generally over the past few months....measels is the big discussion point now in the above areas. Also people are about split with a bike trail proposal depending where they live and/or how much they like biking, bit that doesn't affect national politics.

The reason he may lose is the perception of several issues. Reality is not very relevant in voting and the Democrats have long had a problem moving people.

Immigration.
This is an issue decades in the making. There is not a sudden invasion. We have a shortage of low wage workers then refuse to create a workable solution for those who want to do those jobs.

Crime....it's up.
It's not. But people feel like it is. If we returned to the crime rates from the early 90's people would freak out. Presidents don't really do crime though. But they get the blame for it. https://counciloncj.org/...d-2023-crime-trends/

Transgender
This is a giant fucking non-issue that is just the latest ginned up wedge issue. And it works. It is a sad commentary that people are so easily manipulated but here we are yet again. BTW - there are family changing rooms in an awful lot of situations where a 6 year old would be changing with an adult. Of course these same people would freak the hell out if a transgender man went to enter the women's locker room. People who focus on this should be smacked with a shovel. We are going to need a lot of shovels.

Inflation
The world shot trillions and trillions of dollars into the air over several years. This is the least shocking bout of inflation in history. And we didn't experience an absolute crash when millions of people stopped working all at once so the cost seems pretty much worth it. But yeah, now we have to pay the piper.

Whether Biden is responsible for the above is immaterial because it wasn't like this before him.
This statement ignores reality and pretends things are suddenly worse when they aren't. Like I said, people think some of these things are issues and reality does not matter, so it isn't like you are unique in your views.

You left off the biggest one. The dude is old. If he suddenly looked as vigorous as RFK Jr. it would be a walk.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

I don’t think the fact that you don’t hear them talk about abortion at soccer games or the playground is indicative of how influential the issue might be. Frequently, talk at the playground is about the less controversial or less deeply felt stuff. That’s just normal human nature.

I agree that the risk is not so much flipping votes to Trump, but rather lack of sufficient excitement about going out to vote for a Biden ticket.

---

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

Wait, you think local perception of soccer mom's in Illinois counts more for a nationwide election? Talk about immaterial. Isn't Biden almost certain to get every electoral vote in Illinois?

Do you ask people who they vote for? That's uncouth. I stridently avoid talking politics money or religion.

Like I said I don't know if they would vote for Trump but they may not put forth great effort to get to the polls. I could be wrong but it also could be a canary in the coal mine.

No. You dismissed it because you know it is a loser. Rich people who can travel for abortion don't talk about whether or not they have abortions in polite company. Them not talking about it to some guy creeping on the playground is not shocking.

This is a giant rotting albatross hanging on the neck of every Republican not in a safe election.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

If measles are a big issue, it would seem like people would blame this on people not getting vaccinated, not blaming immigrants.

Given how many right wing people became anit-vax recently (used to be a left wing point), it would seem like that would actually be the issue. If you have the measles vaccine you cant get it right?

Mingling with the limousine liberal set, are we? Did you ask anyone to pass the brie and Grey Poupon?

That's great. Try to claim that in some way you are right, when you made a statement of fact ("Crime is up") that is actually dead wrong.

Adding "comrade" at the end doesn't make you any less wrong.

I’m not sure these soccer moms share windy’s views. He seems to suggest the women are morons. He expresses disdain throughout the OP.

The OP says these soccer moms are more likely than men to vote Democrat. That means their husbands are more likely to vote Republican.

We have a list of the illogical reasons soccer moms might vote against Biden.

What are the reasons the soccer dads would vote against Biden? Are there any good reasons to vote against Biden in this election? Presumably the soccer dads would have them, given their likelihood to vote R.

I am kind of curious how crime can be down nationally but not down locally anywhere.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

The anti-vaxxers have been so obnoxious that I don’t think anyone is going to forget that they have severely impacted vax rates. I suppose if someone is hellbent on blaming immigrants for stuff, then immigrants will be blamed. It just doesn’t make sense.

The secondary problem is blaming Biden for immigrants. We know the bipartisan border bill was shot down because of Trump & his freedumb caucus. Again, the op’s premise is illogical.

Speaking of shooting, the op forgot gun violence and the NRA and the GOP. I would think soccer moms care about gun violence.

If someone else wrote your post you would call them a fucking moron and explain that the President has limited influence over local crime rates. I am too classy for such insults so I will just ask you, what specific Biden policies have caused this perceived spike in crime with the Minivan set that you roll with?

Sounds like Windy has been hanging out with SDG's "wife".

There has been a sudden invasion locally thanks to Texas doofus....nationwide crime statistics means shit when talking about local perception.... Did you hear about the car breakins over on 12 Street? The Smiths had their house broken into while they were in Vail etc.

Family changing rooms are individual rooms

They don't care why inflation occurs just that it is

His age never came up

People weren't sure how much the abortion issue would effect the midterms and look what happened. Make no mistake womens health rights are a huge issue. It will be closer than 20 but Biden should win.

Based on your posts on this thread it sounds like you hang out with a lot of ill-informed people.

  


We all know that the big reason why Biden may lose is because of messaging. Trump has an incredibly powerful right wing ecosystem that protects him, touts him like he is their savior, and demeans everything Biden does/doesnt do. The same just isnt there on the left. But this is incredibly powerful, if you follow right wing politics - even tangentially you are not going to vote for biden - this is a lot of people. Biden in this ecosystem is a weak old man (he is) and Trump is some strong young guy.

Most who follow anything / has been in close contact with Trump - including Bush, Cheney, McCains family, Pence, Mattis, bill barr, john bolton, McMaster, Esper, Kelly, Milly, coats, mulvaney, etc.

If Biden loses it will be because of the right wing ecosystem, not because of anything biden does or doesnt do. In 2016, it was "anyone but HRC", in 2020 it was "I could vote for Biden, but I dont like Harris", and in 2024 it is "Biden is the only candidate I couldnt vote for." There is a pattern - to look otherwise is dumb. If it was another canidate the right wing media would come up with something - and HAMMER IT. They are very good at it, especially with trump on the horn.

This may be your most valid argument. Too many country club Republicans who FYIGM

Local Chicagoland statistics count? Well yes, if Illinois flips red it is over. I think we need to know what is driving sentiment in PA, WI, MI and the like. I do agree that, unfortunately, perception is more important than reality.

Maybe the problem is you are calling the DA when a crime is committed and not the police?

Are any of these soccer moms from Vegas by chance?

Which one?

I think the OP missed the mark on the “transgender issue.” I don’t think the presence of a transgender person is going to make a soccer mom vote R. If a naked person had something other than a flopping junk (like a hard junk), someone would care. But that’s not going to happen to any of the op’s soccer moms or anyone. It’s a boogie man. It’s a story to give thrills & chills. It’s a silly panic. It’s based upon the groomer-LGBTQ trope that has been identified and debunked. That groomer bit is stale.

Fair competition is the wedge issue that you don’t want people talking about. I understand that conflict stresses you out. That issue will cease to exist over time. I notice we don’t have lawsuits by unhappy athletes or other stories in the news right now. I assume it’s because sports organizations are working to keep their athletes happy. The extremists on either end of the spectrum are going to lose their cases and fairness will prevail.

Fairness in sports is a tiny slice of life, and it’s getting worked out as we speak. I don’t think this wedge issue will dominate in November.

I think your list is pretty good. But I'd change how you are presenting this.

For whatever reason, these issues seem to be sticky points for Biden even though the data doesn't support the conclusions (with one exception).

Crime isn't up, Democrats believe in sensible rules to protect women's sports too, Wages have increased at a rate higher than inflation for the since Feb 2023 (in reality, this is the ONLY measurement that matters when it comes to inflation. It is the collective mathematical answer to "am I better of than 3 years ago")

But as you rightly point out, these issues are based on perception, not reality and thus they actually ARE issues for Biden.

I think Trump wins because he is such a force (in my opinion terrible force , but that is beside the point when it comes to this argument) that he makes messaging impossible for his opponent. Not exactly how it goes down, but Trump lies about crime and the response is he is a liar. Everyone knows that, even the people who vote for him (like Tyler would actually probably admit that). So the response to the "crime is up" message becomes about Trump, and not about refuting the actual facts.

To me the only actual issue Biden has "failed" is that everyone is growing tired of seeing immigrants selling flowers with their 7 year old child on the highway. In New York they are doing this on the subway. It's everywhere and people are tired of it. I totally understand the issue: our immigrations policies haven't changed and there is no reason to blame Biden for this. BUT what has changed is that immigrants believe that it is better to immigrate when there is a Democrat in office and thus they have come here in unprecedented numbers.

The Biden administration has to keep hammering away for an immigration reform Bill. Biden needs to make the point that the only difference between his immigration policies and Trump's is that Trump doesn't respect these people (he doesn't, its disgusting, its him at his very worst.). Biden needs to drive home that Trump blocked immigration reform because he doesn't want reform, he wants derision.

Then instead of being wrong ("Crime is up") why didn't you write that Biden could lose because "There is an inaccurate perception that crime is up,"?

I will admit that perception of crime, driven by ubiquitous video of crimes being committed that result from everyone having a video-equipped cell phone in their pocket, combined with the right-wing blitz that "crime sure seems to be up" has helped to drive that false narrative.

Biden will have to combat that narrative.

I also admit that data can come up short when people know their neighbor had a car stolen or, worse, the lady down the street was violently mugged.

I think that you have some point to make, The problem is that, like so many times before, you bury it in falsehoods and call people names when you get called out for it.

You could have just said, "I agree with everything you wrote and thanks for the correction on crime. I stated it as fact when it is incorrect perception that matters."

ETA - age may not have come up, but it is out there. No denying it. He is old and sometimes looks frail. If he wore RFK Jr.'s skin he could attack Trump on being old. But that would be creepy.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Talk about living in a vacuum in 2016, the dems and HRC were extremely arrogant and chased away a lot of their traditional blue collar support as evidenced by losing Wisconsin and Michigan. I voted independent.
- 2020, Biden received a record number of votes. It was anti Trump anger that got him the record votes. Biden was the familiar face, the adult in the room compared to Trump. Harris was a bad presidential candidate, she didn’t even make it to the primaries. For only the second time in my life in any election, I pulled the lever for a D candidate.
-2024, Biden is a terrible candidate, Trump is worse. One is a confused old man, the other is an angry old man. I’m strongly leaning to sitting this one out.

Biden’s foreign policy has been a disaster. The world is a much more unstable place than 1/21/21. Countries have a good read on him, namely, he’ll be indecisive and play both sides. Good for chaos.
- We are bankrolling Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Russia didn’t invade with Trump in office. He’s playing both sides such as telling Ukraine not attack Russian oil infrastructures.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/.../2024/03/22/7447666/

- The Middle East is at war, after a lot of progress made by Trump to get Israel, the Saudi’s, and UAE talking. Now, we have the Israel - Hamas poopshow, with Biden not wanting to pick a side.

Trump wasn’t exactly a Winston Churchill when it came to foreign policy, but his overall craziness kept everyone from getting a read on him which kept troublemakers like Russia, North Korea, Iran at bay for the most part. You don’t want to start something like invade Ukraine if you don’t quite know what the US will do.

It's not me calling anyone. It's a chain of (non) events. Like in CA the people with carts full of merchandise going out the store. Security won't do anything. Why report it to the police? If they do the police won't "work" on it 'cause they know that the DA can't be bothered. Anyway... The above is more a down ticket thing Anyway with limited ramifications to the top of the ticket (I think)

---

I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

You seem to be completely glossing over/forgetting the instability that covid caused.

There is a lot of ignorance in your post, a couple points stood out.


Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. The months that Trump withheld Congressionally approved aide to Ukraine in an effort to get them to spread lies about Biden were deadliest of the war up until that point.


Israel, the Saudi's, and the UAE were talking long before Trump was in office and continued long after he left. Hamas felt threatened by this, which is why they attacked.

Iran, and their proxies, were launching attacks throughout Trump's Presidency. You might have just heard of the Houthis but they were at war for all of Trump's presidency. Over 150,000 dead, Millions displaced. The ceasefire came when Biden was president, not Trump.

It is clear to any reasonable person that North Korea completely played Trump. Kim used this to improve his missile and nuclear program throughout the Trump presidency.

Outside of a few small wins Trump was an abject failure internationally.

I am going to have so see some evidence for this and not just claims. Because there would be data to back up this theory, since most DAs are super conservative, you could compare data to more progressive DAs.

Because I find it hard to believe that the murder rate went down because a bunch of murders weren’t reported.

Well said, above. Unfortunately, the spin has been effective, not helped by the afghan exit.

---

I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

BBB's post is so factually wrong it is laughable. It is a sand is dry, water is wet argument.

Hamas, the Houthis, etc only have power if there is instability.

You are completely barking up the wrong tree with this crowd. Faced with reasonable arguments they feel backed into a corner and come out frothing at the mouth about how their understanding of the world must be right and anyone that suggests otherwise is a moron. Very predictable.

I said it before, and I will say it again. the immigration busses to NYC and Chicago are the best thing going for Trump and he needs to thank Abbot if he wins. Abbot should come out and say the busses will stop if Trump wins.

Any no, its not "perception" when the illegals are sitting on the freaking corner or in parking lots sleeping and asking for money. That is reality. And rich folks don't like to see it.

And it's not "perception" or "unimportant" when you see a video of a biological male roughing up girls in a girls bball game or men winning womens' sports events.

It's not "perception" when you can't pay for dinner or your grocery and gas bill are much more than they were a few years ago under Trump. Explain it away all you want as stupid people just don't understand why these things happen, but the stupid people just want to be able to pay their bills and if they think Biden is causing problems, why vote for him.

Maslovs hiearchey of needs. People don't give a shit about abortion, made up claims about losing democracy and other left wing talking points when their money doesn't go very far and they have illegal immigrants killing college girls out for a jog and standing around the local Wal-Mart parking lot.

Folks want to be safe and comfortable first and foremost.

Propaganda works.

Biden has received a lot of fair criticism for the few months he managed the Afghanistan withdraw but the folks who think Trump would have done better are delusional.

Trump ordered Afghanistan troop withdrawals after election loss - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

Perception and emotion drive decisions. Logic and reason are mostly used to justify the initial emotional decision.

Windy is accurate IMO in a general sentiment of what's working against Biden.

I do think the age thing is a pretty major factor as well, and will become worse throughout the summer.

Wrong, they want an affordable $5 sandwich first and foremost. MSAA!

Undocumented aliens killed people during Trump's Presidency. You, and the rest of your MAGA crowd said nothing. You did not blame your Dear Leader, you were silent.

As for killing people at WalMart, you also said nothing when one of your fellow travelers shot up Walmart because he was inspired by the same invasion BS spewed by Trump, Fox, etc.

El Paso Shooting Suspect’s Manifesto Echoes Trump’s Language - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Damn straight. Five Guys last weekend for a burger and drink.....no fries or extras=$17.50. outrageous. Biden OUT.

Exhibit A,

I don't think your comback is going to convince the rich moms Windy is talking about. Shout it to the hills, but unless Biden talks about how he is going to get the illegals out of the parking lots and walkways, how he is going to deport illegal aliens with arrest records for violent crime ( instead of apologizing for calling him an illegal), your argument is pretty useless.

I am all for gun control. don't give automatic weapons to suicidal maniacs. I think we already have laws against that.

If I am Trump, that is shown round the clock in places like Chicago, NYC and then Abbot comes on and says....the busses stop when Trump is elected. Would have to be good for some votes.

A federal judge in Illinois appointed by President Barack Obama ruled that the Constitution protects the rights of noncitizens who enter the US illegally after a Mexican immigrant living in Chicago was found in possession of a handgun.
US District Judge Sharon Johnson Coleman ruled earlier this month that a federal ban on undocumented immigrants owning firearms is unconstitutional, and dismissed charges against Heriberto Carbajal-Flores, who was arrested in 2020 after violating a federal law that prohibits noncitizens from possessing guns.

Shouldn't this be on one of JimatBeyond's (or whatever the hell his name is) NRA threads.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

They should show this one too. Oh shit, that is from 2018. https://www.wsj.com/...rn-border-1543277802

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Yup, pictures like that are why Trump, and the GOP, killed the strongest border security bill in a generation. Immigration and Customs Enforcement would have gotten almost $8 billion in emergency funding. Customs and Border Protection would get nearly $7 billion in emergency funding...... instead they got zero, because they want videos like this.

Party over country.

I would be really interested to hear if Jharris is going to vote for Biden. I remember in 2020 he said he had to vote for Trump because of the single issue that Trump was the only one going to keep his town (kenosha?) safe. There just hasnt been the civil unrest under Biden, so you would think he is much safer under Biden.

Also during Trump's flaccid time as President

It's pretty comical that the, "Biden opened the borders" crowd somehow thinks that a video of migrants being stopped by a border barrier is some kind of gotcha moment.

Exhibit B.

Have any idiot cops killed a black man by kneeling on his neck in front of crowd during Biden's time in office that I was not aware of? The summer of love, the Chop, the Chaz and the associated riots most likely had something to do with George Floyd I would guess.

When I googled images with "border stormed under Trump" the vast majority are the Capitol on January 6th.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Why were there no riots dealing with the most recent goon squad? https://www.cnn.com/...unty-hale/index.html

Trump fanned flames. We all know this. Trump escalated civil unrest. he divides.

Are toy actually upset an Obama judge did what the GOP wants?

Maybe because no one knows about it. Your link is the first I have heard of it. Haven't seen it or heard about it on news or elsewhere. Floyd was covered 24/7 for months.

What's comical is your self own. Yes, when there is a huge border wall, you know what, it works. But unfortunately, we don't seem to have a huge border wall along the entire border. ( see videos of river crossings daily)

You are making the point that we should install a huge border wall with locking gate on the entire border. Thanks for understanding and getting onboard with building as a wall. Some folks seem to think they don't' work when we all know they do.....when utilized.

Who was president when Floyd was murdered? There is only one right answer here.

That is exactly my point. The only reason people cared about things on a national level is because of Trump fanned flames.

People protested George floyd - almost exactly the same here. THEN, trump said he would crackdown on the protests. https://www.cnn.com/...-protests/index.html

These are all problems that every single president has had to deal with. But only one president in recent history, has caused the wide spread civil unrest - that made the US less safe.

Uh, my friend, the 24/7 news coverage is what fanned the flames. If it would have been on the news for one day and then never mentioned again, we get nothing like what we got. just like the bozos you posted about. No one knows about it.

you think if George Floyd and all the news coverage happened under Biden's presidency the riots would not have started? What planet do you live on? The video made me want to go slap a white cop and I'm not a rioty, protesting type of person.

Why do you think the news chose to cover one but not the other?

The George Floyd video was visceral and disturbing. It is the kind of story news folks want to cover as it gets ratings. Add the fact it would be a good way to argue Trump was sowing discord ( it worked in this forum) and you have a ratings bonanza.

Why do you think they covered George more than the three you posted about?

Trump fanning flames. Telling cops you have to rough up people. Telling everyone protestors will be put down like dogs.

You don’t think a group of cops torturing people is disturbing?

So answer this question- what party killed the recent BIPARTISAN border legislation, and under whose direction did they kill it?

Local crime is up in my area according to local news.

Every day the headline is "City Under Siege" for DC in the local news. It's a shit show. FBI agents, congress critters, even federal security are getting jacked.

https://www.nbcwashington.com/...onsequences/3499873/

I'll do just about anything to avoid going into DC. Baltimore? Same thing. At least in Baltimore I can carry if I want to.

WTF are you talking about with your last sentence?


Trump didn't fan anymore flames than the news media. If the news would have covered the story you mentioned, it would have been the same. No one rioted after the story you mentioned, no one burned cars, no one set up autonomous zones. If you think Trump was the reason for all the violence, riots, autonomous zones, you are beyond help.

Trump and R killed it. Sure seems like it was a little late into Biden's admin. Plus, if you listen to THOM, walls are the best way to prevent illegal immigration and close the border. We saw that in action yesterday as they attempted to rush in to the country illegally. Stopped in their tracks.

Did the bill have funds to build a huge wall along the entire border with iron gates and all the support needed to man the gate? No, then lets just have an election and see who does what at the border after the election.

You seem to forget its the busses to Chicago, NYC and other places that are driving most of the angst on the border. Folks don't like to see it up close and personal. That was the point of the OP.

Are you trying to be funny now?

It worked beautifully yesterday to stop the mob, as you pointed out. We need it to be higher and have folks manning it. Put that in the next bill.

Did you even watch the video you posted. A dude from Circ du Soleil with a ladder might be able to get over, taking his time. Sure. But its stops mobs and mobs of folks. Using that video as some type of suggestion walls don't work for stopping folks from getting is so disingenuous.

You said people covered George Floyd because it was disturbing. This story is just as disturbing! Makes no sense that in a vacuum one would get clicks and the other one wouldn’t.

Biden dropped the ball on the border. No doubt. But when we have a bipartisan bill to get a start on securing the border, it is in the best interests of the county to get that legislation in place. Biden said he would sign.

Trump only cares about Trump. He is a cancer.

It makes no sense the news wouldn't cover it as much. Why didn't they? I have never heard of it, never seen it on the news. There was a distinct effort it appears to not show it as much as they did George Floyd? I wonder why?

Both are clearly terrible.

I am confident that jharris will dream up another absurd reason to vote for Trump a third time.

your certainty is absurd. most migrants come through a port of entry. Smuggling is done in many many ways and "crossing by foot" is just one of many methods of transport. The desire to enter is what drives behavior. A wall wouldn't change that fundamental fact, it would only change the method of transport.

The problem is, you seem to only understand this issue by its physical aspects. Put yourself in the mind of an immigrant. The start is, "My life will be better if I immigrate to America, even if I do it illegally." "How do I get there," comes second. "I can enter America on foot because the wall is low," is not the thought that puts illegal immigration into motion.

The police torture story is very disturbing, too. However, the news stories right now related to the police torture is about the lengthy prison terms the torturing police are receiving. Apparently the system works to punish these wrong-doers. I’ve paid attention, but I don’t need to do anything about it.

Back when George Floyd was murdered, which was very disturbing, it looked like the system wasn’t working. Instead of talking about how police would be held accountable, Trump immediately focused his attention on the protests. The vast majority of protests were peaceful, and Trump characterized them as violent. Trump’s failure to identify the root problem and his failure to identify a solution to the root problem needed America’s attention.

I've been informed I forgot an obvious one

Because the fucking progressive bleeding heart Palestinian supporters will not vote at all because they're mad at Biden for supporting Israel. One of them in the LR even said so. Even though another Trump administration would be far worse for their cause.

I'll admit this doesn't come up much around here....the only person I talked to about this is very Liberal but also Jewish so probably not representative

I think most Jewish people are very liberal.

I think a majority Hasidic/orthodox (smaller subset) jews are conservatives.

So your Jewish friend is prob really representative

Murders are down in 2023 compared to the pandemic peak in murder rate but I believe they are not down to levels seen before the pandemic. So we have a one or two year decline which was proceeded by a much bigger jump in the several years before. Biden's campaign isn't convincing people.

https://www.statista.com/...62/us-homicide-rate/

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

excellent post. It will be argued with as to why it's "not true" and eventually will devolve into "but but Trump" rather than addressing what Biden and the Dems can/could do with the time remaining.

Blacks hispanics soccer moms. In about 4-7 states.

Anecdotally, My house in a swing state in 2020 went 3-0 Biden (with my daughter not making it to the polls due to "being in school"). We've added a 5th since then and as of today we are solidly 3-2 Trump with the 2 being the most likely to not make it to the polls.

Anecdotally, I had a dozen 18-19 yo's at my house one night last week (spring break from school everybody getting together at home). boys/men and girls/women. All 18-19 (none voted in 2020). They started the conversation, I was listening it was 12-0 Trump all over "Biden is an old dude we need to get him out of there"

you can't win on negative the other guy alone. There was a thread recently about "are you better off". Slowman, out of most all posters did the best job of trying to verbalize why he was (while calling Biden a centrist....). If I recall correctly the things he hung his hat on were:

1) nobody is F@@@@'ing with my entitlements
2) I can get a covid booster with my flu shot
3) nobody is destroying our national parks and monuments
4) i can take advantage of some solar credits for my pool and my gated compound.

That was the best case I saw built and, while I'm sure accurate, isn't exactly a list which strikes a chord with your average Americans current concerns.

Good point on the young folks. I have a number of collage age kids and they are all also voting for Trump as are their friends. I don't know a single friend of theirs that is voting for Biden.

The complaint by most is the guy is braindead and they laugh at the silly memes of Biden stumbling around verbally, looking like a dear in headlights and walking like he has a load in his diaper. While those aren't probably the reasons someone should vote for Trump over Biden, its working with these folks.

Mainly they think the entire system is rigged and the like Vivek and want him to go into the temple and run out the money changers. But that is not going to happen so they will vote for Trump this time around.

the consensus in my living room (not sure if it's right or not) was " average life span of US male is 77. Dude is 81 and looks half dead, we gotta get him out of there". I would note:

1) no mention of Harris in the conversation
2) they may be overlooking Trump's age as well, but the point is they ARE overlooking Trump's age relative to Biden's "age".

I like to listen to young people/young voters. while many don't end up actually voting it does give us LR'rs insight into where they are at. I found this significantly different posiiton vs. my 2 older ones in 2020 and their friends

my oldest is 24. Voted Biden in last election. Is now trying to figure out how to pay rent/car/food etc etc.

He sent me a meme last week. Picture of Biden; sons comment was "political ads have started". Caption of meme was "I'm Joe Biden, and I forgot this message".

I'm sorry I should have said rhetorical question. But still you chose not to bring it up here and I thought the flip side to your question equally as important: why he will win because of those moms. The other guy served to motivate movement to the polls in 2020. My two cents worth of opinion on your Chicago moms is that abortion rights will play big time and the other guys performance up to and on Jan 6 will motivate them to vote in 2024.

 
Biden/Harris got 81 million votes, nore than anyone ever.

Trump has done nothing of consequence since that day except supposedly incite an insurrection in an attempt to overthrow the government

All the things you laid out in your OP are not true because something something propaganda

And yet we are sitting here 7 months out having a serious discussion about the fact the Biden MIGHT lose re-election (with many of his supporters here grasping at reasoning that at least current polling doesn't bear out).


HMMMMMMM

Its really interesting that "kids" now are talking about politics 7-8 months before an election not only with their friends but with their parents.

I really cant remember a time talking about politics while I was in UG with either my parents (who worked for the GOP) or my friends.

I remember my parents always wanting me to watch the SOU with them/the sunday shows - but I generally think politics are a waste a time.

The only thing political I remember was during Katrina Kayne West saying "Bush doesnt care about black people" and Mike Myers face.

probably pretty good that more young adults are getting interested/discussing politics in their day to day lives.

These polls?

agree. In my case it wasn't with me active it was just amongst themselves but I agree with your position.

My wife is/was a dyed in the wool teachers union card carrying Dem and until now did most of the talking in our house and "thought" she had all 3 squared away until recently. The boys may be backsliding but not via any thumb on the scale by me (I know better than that....)

yeah you're right. Nothing to see here. You got nothing to worry about. Biden is up comfortably as one would expect with his 3+ year track record going up against a racist rapist insurrectionist like Trump.

carry on being right.

Thanks...I will! In the meantime, carry on inappropriately fondling your Trumpy Bear.

Eh? We are 7.5 months out. Getting wound up about polls now is pointless.

So many things are going to happen between now and then. Both will say a lot of stupid things. Biden will still be old. Trump will be almost as old. The GOP will still talk about abortion. The stock market may keep going up or it may go down (something you told me would be decisive on 2/13/2024 and is up 5.67% since). People will still think the rent is too damn high. SDG's sammiches will be expensive because he goes places that overcharge. RFK Jr will look worse and do worse before we are done (Gary Johnson polled at almost 10% in July of 2016 before getting 3.3% in November) because people will not decide to sit this one out. Trump might go to jail (which could be good or bad for him depending on how it happens) etc. etc. etc..

Windy's OP is not exactly groundbreaking. The perception of the economy, crime, and immigration will all play a role, everyone knows that. Democrats have had a hard time communicating for as long as I have followed elections. They seem to think if they just keep saying the same things people will finally pick up what they are putting down. Meanwhile Republicans seem to understand that if your message gets more than 5 words long you are losing the audience.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

yep you're right. Nothing to worry about. Plenty of time. After all, Biden has just seen a temporary period below 40%. Plenty of time for people to change their minds about both candidates. We don't know much about either in terms of their public or political life and positions and track records.

you and gee-tee are pointed in the right direction. I like discussing with you more though. Gee-tee got some weird perverted fetish stuff going on.

I sorta get your motivation around our rebuttal with the "but but but Trump" refrain. But, even if we were to limit ourselves to the listed issues, both current new ones and the age old ones, any discussion of the upcoming election is going to get personal about the candidates. We can sort all we want the dumbed down Trump stump talking points in comparison to the faults falling Biden's way both because of current policies and the simple fact he is in charge when shit happens, I maintain it only natural, and not a devolution, to settle in the end with the " but but Trump " argument.

Biden can win again simply because of the no shit negative ugliness that informs on the character that is owned by Trump. Character matters. If it did not matter, the pubs would not be pursuing the character assault on Joe Biden and his impeachment without crime backing. My lens tells me they are simply trying to even the character scale, bad character meets bad character.

Many here ( and the soccer moms of windy's burbs, will gladly concede some issues where maybe another Trump presidency could work to our personal advantage. But then there ain't no getting around that the other side of the scale is loaded with the man's performance post election 2020. It does not pain me to say that the "but but Trump" campaign slogan is a winner.

What I dont understand is that at this point and in 2020 most people had already made up their minds. Anything showing than an incredibly tight race - which will be decided likely in 3 states - is silly.

If the election were held today, I would probably give trump the advantage. But Biden is sitting on a war chest of money, and its just going to be relentless advertisements + trump trials in the fall. Will that be enough to swing things 2-3 points, I dont know, lots can happen.

Most people dont remember how bad trump was as president. Most people follow politics somewhere between where they follow mens and womens nba basketball. A couple of weeks ago a pollster asked some "undecided voters" about how J6 is going to impact their decision in 2024, a bunch of them said they had forgot about it.

Elections are always something to worry about. Polls 8 months'ish out are only marginally useful, especially national. As we saw in 2020, it will come down to a few states.

I mean we could turn it around. Trump is dead even with a guy who can't feed himself soup. He should be worried.

I think the bigger wild card is what happens with the 10 - 15% polling for RFK Jr right now. People don't know much about him, and he is a whackadoodle. So far it looks like he pulls from both about the same.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Despite the lack of nuance your post demonstrates, it’s worth commenting on:

This could really matter in Michigan - which has a. The highest percentage of Muslim Americans b. The slimmest margin of victory for Biden in the last election.

I don’t expect anything to pain you about but but Trump. You have clearly expressed your hatred for him. I expect everything about your posts and judgements flows from that

Nobody’s questioning that Biden can win. The title of this post is why he may lose. My original comments here were that he might lose (or that Trump might win can’t remember) Clearly those who aren’t staked to Biden here still think he is and should be the favorite hence “might and may”

The thing I find so interesting is he is not. Currently. And hasn’t been for several months. And has had an approval rating below 40% for as long as I can think back to. And you all seem fine with that

There are things he could do right now to help himself. I’d start to point a few of them out but in this room it’s an exercise in futility. Because mostly people here want to disagree with the premise there is anything wrong to begin with.

You yourself have staked yourself to a more than 81 million votes claim. Current boots on the ground situation be damned

Maybe you’re right. Maybe all the minorities and soccer moms and Jewish voters (and Muslim voters…..) and young people will just fall in line last minute and do what they always do.

If you’re right we will both wake up the next day and the sun will come up. My life won’t change much over either guy. If it’s Biden I’ll continue to complain about things I see he is doing which are bad for the country. If it’s Trump whether I do that here or not will depend on whether I’m just repeating what everybody else is saying or not.

Sure seems like if you’re wrong it’s gonna bother you a lot. I’d think you’d want to talk through the things that Biden could be doing differently to improve his position prevent that so if he doesn’t you’d have a basis to be upset

But you and others here seem to be confident all will be well and he’s got character and he will be fine

Most of my responses here have been to people who see it different and are meant to strike a conversation about that. The rest, like yours, I’m just going to keep agreeing with you and see what the reaction is come November

You are correct about the polls 8 months out. The margin I would find worrisome if I were in the Biden camp is the fact that to my knowledge in 2016 and 2020 at no time was Trump tied or ahead.

Agree on a few states. See my comment above and where most/all of those key states are polling now

I get turning it around. Go figure seems to think character will be the deciding factor. In this case I would put soup eating ability and character as a wash position

RFK is an issue. As to that I think, more so than people changing their minds, people currently saying RFK and then breaking for one or the other is likely. Everything I see has that break pretty evenly split

You left out a whole bunch of obvious ones.

A military withdrawal that makes our withdrawal from Vietnam look positively joyful.
Weaponizing government departments against political enemies.
War in Ukraine.
War in Israel.
Increased potential for war in Taiwan
Weakening the US military
Multiple penetrations of US territory by hostile spy platforms (Chinese balloons)
Killing American energy production

I think we can all agree that a talking point list really isn't complete if it does not include Chinese spy ballons.

Do me a personal favor. If required, as you may have already covered the subject with him, have a talk with your son about character and its importance alongside the evaluation of what one wants in a sitting president. At 19 I voted for Tricky Dick without a full comprehension of the importance of character and then voted for Ford thinking his pardon of Dick was an admirable thing to do.

The sun will come up regardless. And if President Trump tries to go too far again, I am in full confidence that the Senate will get it right this one last time and find him guilty of an impeachable charge.

Thanks.

I don’t plan to opine to them on the character of either candidate. Neither of which is all that stellar

Update:

Immigration and measels (kinda the same thing) still going strong as a topic of conversation

Crime still a discussion topic

Trump will initiate court battles in multiple states. Biden may lose the election if the election ends up in courts or decided by State legislatures.

Biden will not lose the popular vote . . . and Biden will get more electors than Trump . . . but that might not be enough for Biden to actually win.

A major part of this election is going to come down to immigration vs womens right to chose, it's going to be close but I'm saying Biden wins.

The only thing consistent about Windy's predictions is he is almost always wrong. Remember his assertion there would be a "bitch of a recession" about now?

‘Envy of the World’—U.S. Economy Expected to Keep Powering Higher - WSJ


Or his assertion that the S&P 500 would be at 3900?
S&P 500 notches first record high close in 2 years; chipmakers soar | Reuters

Or his nonsensical claim that abortion is settled and will not be a factor in this years election?
Abortion in Arizona: What to know about the near-total 1864 ban | AP News

One characteristic I like about Biden is that he seems responsive to new information. A good leader/ decision-maker will know they have a solid foundation, but they are not satisfied with that as the information they use to develop strategies and policies. Current information is critical and becomes the foundation for future decisions. As we age, I think it’s really easy to rely on our mastery from years ago. But that obviously becomes outdated information, although it still has value for historical context. From what I see of Biden’s work, he appears able to respond to current information pretty well.

As an aside, I have some medical malpractice cases these days involving elderly people who have diminished capacity. I also have middle-aged witnesses who I assess for their ability to provide useful testimony. For both the elderly patients and their younger nurses, the act of decision-making is very important! The capacity to make judgements— using current information to make decisions, is central. Thinking about Biden, from my very casual observations about his responses to Middle East violence, it looks like he is not entrenched in old ideas or unable to respond.

I think this was written by David Sedaris, but I’m not sure

I think that would be an accurate analogy if the flight attendant failed to mention the chicken is actually raw.

---

Long Chile was a silly place.

Undecided | The New Yorker

it was David Sedaris.........in 2008

I'll take the raw chicken please.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Are you happy about being fed raw chicken?

Would you like an option between salmonella and picking bits of glass out of shit? Would you be upset at the airline for only offering those two choices?

This narrative that one side is god awful and the other is merely slightly imperfect is ridiculous. We, especially, should be able to see this as Canadians. We've had 10 years of raw chicken. In BC we've had 7 years of NDP. How's that working out for us?

At some point you need to say "hey maybe it's this raw chicken that is continually making me sick."

---

Long Chile was a silly place.

TBH your analogy isn’t great. Biden isn’t real chicken. Neither is Trudeau. Are either great? Hells no. Are either country going to crap because of their decisions? Hells no.

I’d say Trump is shit with glass in it, Biden is overcooked steak.

Whilst I don’t really want overcooked steak. I definitely wouldn’t want shit with glass in it.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

I genuinely think Trudeau has been horrible for our country. He's as much a plate of shit as PP. Their economic policies are both awful for most Canadians, and they are both rabidly ideological in their virtue signalling. They're two side of the same shitty coin.

Honestly the NDP hasn't been much better, and it's disturbing how badly they've stripped people of things like property rights and consolidated power away from communities and towards the province.

All I want is a damn plate of cooked chicken.

---

Long Chile was a silly place.

Well the Conservatives in Ontario enjoy downloading more shit onto the municipalities. Who can only pay for it by raising our property taxes.

Be careful what you wish for.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

I thought it seemed like Sedaris. I think it is an apt comparison.

Two Canadians arguing about Canadian politics? Are you guys trying to kill this thread?

Raw chicken isn't a great analogy for Biden. I think we're talking old, leathery chicken the flight attendant found left in the heater after last week's trans-atlantic flight. With a slightly rancid odor.

Apparently the Japanese like raw chicken? I'm not a huge fan of most raw meats, but I'd 100% chow down on this chicken sashimi vs b) plate of shit, c) starving.

My reading of accounts of people who've resorted to eating raw meat due to being stranded in the wilderness is that it's actually very good. Grain of salt because they're hungry AF. Blood that's still warm is particularly amaze-balls.

The chicken analogy just doesnt work. The real analogy would be something like day old bagels. They are fine. Have I had them in the past - yes. Would I order them off the menu at a restaurant - no.

Rich people don't like migrants in their neighborhood

https://www.lohud.com/...-school/73304350007/

To be fair, rich people don’t like anyone but other rich people in their neighborhoods, and even those, they barely tolerate.

---

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

Yes but limousine liberals virtue signal, donate a lot, vote Democrat....Until their inner NIMBY appears and then they freak the fuck out

What are you babbling about? The anti-immigrant town supervisor, Carl Fulgenzi, is a Republican.

This is almost as stupid as when you called Billionaire GOP donor Ken Langone a "Limousine liberal"

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2747878


Parallels are uncanny

Chicago, Dems and anti war all match up. Yet to see how the convention plays, or if we are still dealing with an Israeli war.

It's more along the lines you have fawning defense of the protesters from certain areas where the rest of the country disagrees with either their actions or position.

Gofigure still has the over on 81 million votes.


No word on whether that’s Biden or Michelle in his eyes.

https://www.cnn.com/...t-zakaria/index.html

It looks like the hush money trial might be the only one that makes conclusion prior to the election. Part of the problem is that with enough digging very few people can withstand the scrutiny of being under a microscope. Georgia prosecutor dating lawyer she hires for case. Classified documents Biden and Pence did that too. I am sure somebody will point out that not to the same level and they would be right but that won't be the conclusion of average Trump voter.

Trump gets convicted on the Hush money trial I can see it effectively gets "explained" away as just another politician covering stuff up.

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Regardless of who the special council was there was no way the Georgia case was ever going to happen before the election. None. Same with Judge Cannon. Others having documents has zero to do with her delaying his obstruction case.

This doesn't take away from the situation that very few people can withstand the scrutiny of being under a microscope. The Georgia case and the documents case both loose their punch for this reason among the average voter.

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot