People weren't sure how much the abortion issue would effect the midterms and look what happened. Make no mistake womens health rights are a huge issue. It will be closer than 20 but Biden should win.

Based on your posts on this thread it sounds like you hang out with a lot of ill-informed people.

  


We all know that the big reason why Biden may lose is because of messaging. Trump has an incredibly powerful right wing ecosystem that protects him, touts him like he is their savior, and demeans everything Biden does/doesnt do. The same just isnt there on the left. But this is incredibly powerful, if you follow right wing politics - even tangentially you are not going to vote for biden - this is a lot of people. Biden in this ecosystem is a weak old man (he is) and Trump is some strong young guy.

Most who follow anything / has been in close contact with Trump - including Bush, Cheney, McCains family, Pence, Mattis, bill barr, john bolton, McMaster, Esper, Kelly, Milly, coats, mulvaney, etc.

If Biden loses it will be because of the right wing ecosystem, not because of anything biden does or doesnt do. In 2016, it was "anyone but HRC", in 2020 it was "I could vote for Biden, but I dont like Harris", and in 2024 it is "Biden is the only candidate I couldnt vote for." There is a pattern - to look otherwise is dumb. If it was another canidate the right wing media would come up with something - and HAMMER IT. They are very good at it, especially with trump on the horn.

This may be your most valid argument. Too many country club Republicans who FYIGM

Local Chicagoland statistics count? Well yes, if Illinois flips red it is over. I think we need to know what is driving sentiment in PA, WI, MI and the like. I do agree that, unfortunately, perception is more important than reality.

Maybe the problem is you are calling the DA when a crime is committed and not the police?

Are any of these soccer moms from Vegas by chance?

Which one?

I think the OP missed the mark on the “transgender issue.” I don’t think the presence of a transgender person is going to make a soccer mom vote R. If a naked person had something other than a flopping junk (like a hard junk), someone would care. But that’s not going to happen to any of the op’s soccer moms or anyone. It’s a boogie man. It’s a story to give thrills & chills. It’s a silly panic. It’s based upon the groomer-LGBTQ trope that has been identified and debunked. That groomer bit is stale.

Fair competition is the wedge issue that you don’t want people talking about. I understand that conflict stresses you out. That issue will cease to exist over time. I notice we don’t have lawsuits by unhappy athletes or other stories in the news right now. I assume it’s because sports organizations are working to keep their athletes happy. The extremists on either end of the spectrum are going to lose their cases and fairness will prevail.

Fairness in sports is a tiny slice of life, and it’s getting worked out as we speak. I don’t think this wedge issue will dominate in November.

I think your list is pretty good. But I'd change how you are presenting this.

For whatever reason, these issues seem to be sticky points for Biden even though the data doesn't support the conclusions (with one exception).

Crime isn't up, Democrats believe in sensible rules to protect women's sports too, Wages have increased at a rate higher than inflation for the since Feb 2023 (in reality, this is the ONLY measurement that matters when it comes to inflation. It is the collective mathematical answer to "am I better of than 3 years ago")

But as you rightly point out, these issues are based on perception, not reality and thus they actually ARE issues for Biden.

I think Trump wins because he is such a force (in my opinion terrible force , but that is beside the point when it comes to this argument) that he makes messaging impossible for his opponent. Not exactly how it goes down, but Trump lies about crime and the response is he is a liar. Everyone knows that, even the people who vote for him (like Tyler would actually probably admit that). So the response to the "crime is up" message becomes about Trump, and not about refuting the actual facts.

To me the only actual issue Biden has "failed" is that everyone is growing tired of seeing immigrants selling flowers with their 7 year old child on the highway. In New York they are doing this on the subway. It's everywhere and people are tired of it. I totally understand the issue: our immigrations policies haven't changed and there is no reason to blame Biden for this. BUT what has changed is that immigrants believe that it is better to immigrate when there is a Democrat in office and thus they have come here in unprecedented numbers.

The Biden administration has to keep hammering away for an immigration reform Bill. Biden needs to make the point that the only difference between his immigration policies and Trump's is that Trump doesn't respect these people (he doesn't, its disgusting, its him at his very worst.). Biden needs to drive home that Trump blocked immigration reform because he doesn't want reform, he wants derision.

Then instead of being wrong ("Crime is up") why didn't you write that Biden could lose because "There is an inaccurate perception that crime is up,"?

I will admit that perception of crime, driven by ubiquitous video of crimes being committed that result from everyone having a video-equipped cell phone in their pocket, combined with the right-wing blitz that "crime sure seems to be up" has helped to drive that false narrative.

Biden will have to combat that narrative.

I also admit that data can come up short when people know their neighbor had a car stolen or, worse, the lady down the street was violently mugged.

I think that you have some point to make, The problem is that, like so many times before, you bury it in falsehoods and call people names when you get called out for it.

You could have just said, "I agree with everything you wrote and thanks for the correction on crime. I stated it as fact when it is incorrect perception that matters."

ETA - age may not have come up, but it is out there. No denying it. He is old and sometimes looks frail. If he wore RFK Jr.'s skin he could attack Trump on being old. But that would be creepy.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Talk about living in a vacuum in 2016, the dems and HRC were extremely arrogant and chased away a lot of their traditional blue collar support as evidenced by losing Wisconsin and Michigan. I voted independent.
- 2020, Biden received a record number of votes. It was anti Trump anger that got him the record votes. Biden was the familiar face, the adult in the room compared to Trump. Harris was a bad presidential candidate, she didn’t even make it to the primaries. For only the second time in my life in any election, I pulled the lever for a D candidate.
-2024, Biden is a terrible candidate, Trump is worse. One is a confused old man, the other is an angry old man. I’m strongly leaning to sitting this one out.

Biden’s foreign policy has been a disaster. The world is a much more unstable place than 1/21/21. Countries have a good read on him, namely, he’ll be indecisive and play both sides. Good for chaos.
- We are bankrolling Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Russia didn’t invade with Trump in office. He’s playing both sides such as telling Ukraine not attack Russian oil infrastructures.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/.../2024/03/22/7447666/

- The Middle East is at war, after a lot of progress made by Trump to get Israel, the Saudi’s, and UAE talking. Now, we have the Israel - Hamas poopshow, with Biden not wanting to pick a side.

Trump wasn’t exactly a Winston Churchill when it came to foreign policy, but his overall craziness kept everyone from getting a read on him which kept troublemakers like Russia, North Korea, Iran at bay for the most part. You don’t want to start something like invade Ukraine if you don’t quite know what the US will do.

It's not me calling anyone. It's a chain of (non) events. Like in CA the people with carts full of merchandise going out the store. Security won't do anything. Why report it to the police? If they do the police won't "work" on it 'cause they know that the DA can't be bothered. Anyway... The above is more a down ticket thing Anyway with limited ramifications to the top of the ticket (I think)

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I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

You seem to be completely glossing over/forgetting the instability that covid caused.

There is a lot of ignorance in your post, a couple points stood out.


Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. The months that Trump withheld Congressionally approved aide to Ukraine in an effort to get them to spread lies about Biden were deadliest of the war up until that point.


Israel, the Saudi's, and the UAE were talking long before Trump was in office and continued long after he left. Hamas felt threatened by this, which is why they attacked.

Iran, and their proxies, were launching attacks throughout Trump's Presidency. You might have just heard of the Houthis but they were at war for all of Trump's presidency. Over 150,000 dead, Millions displaced. The ceasefire came when Biden was president, not Trump.

It is clear to any reasonable person that North Korea completely played Trump. Kim used this to improve his missile and nuclear program throughout the Trump presidency.

Outside of a few small wins Trump was an abject failure internationally.

I am going to have so see some evidence for this and not just claims. Because there would be data to back up this theory, since most DAs are super conservative, you could compare data to more progressive DAs.

Because I find it hard to believe that the murder rate went down because a bunch of murders weren’t reported.

Well said, above. Unfortunately, the spin has been effective, not helped by the afghan exit.

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I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

BBB's post is so factually wrong it is laughable. It is a sand is dry, water is wet argument.

Hamas, the Houthis, etc only have power if there is instability.

You are completely barking up the wrong tree with this crowd. Faced with reasonable arguments they feel backed into a corner and come out frothing at the mouth about how their understanding of the world must be right and anyone that suggests otherwise is a moron. Very predictable.

I said it before, and I will say it again. the immigration busses to NYC and Chicago are the best thing going for Trump and he needs to thank Abbot if he wins. Abbot should come out and say the busses will stop if Trump wins.

Any no, its not "perception" when the illegals are sitting on the freaking corner or in parking lots sleeping and asking for money. That is reality. And rich folks don't like to see it.

And it's not "perception" or "unimportant" when you see a video of a biological male roughing up girls in a girls bball game or men winning womens' sports events.

It's not "perception" when you can't pay for dinner or your grocery and gas bill are much more than they were a few years ago under Trump. Explain it away all you want as stupid people just don't understand why these things happen, but the stupid people just want to be able to pay their bills and if they think Biden is causing problems, why vote for him.

Maslovs hiearchey of needs. People don't give a shit about abortion, made up claims about losing democracy and other left wing talking points when their money doesn't go very far and they have illegal immigrants killing college girls out for a jog and standing around the local Wal-Mart parking lot.

Folks want to be safe and comfortable first and foremost.

Propaganda works.

Biden has received a lot of fair criticism for the few months he managed the Afghanistan withdraw but the folks who think Trump would have done better are delusional.

Trump ordered Afghanistan troop withdrawals after election loss - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

Perception and emotion drive decisions. Logic and reason are mostly used to justify the initial emotional decision.

Windy is accurate IMO in a general sentiment of what's working against Biden.

I do think the age thing is a pretty major factor as well, and will become worse throughout the summer.

Wrong, they want an affordable $5 sandwich first and foremost. MSAA!

Undocumented aliens killed people during Trump's Presidency. You, and the rest of your MAGA crowd said nothing. You did not blame your Dear Leader, you were silent.

As for killing people at WalMart, you also said nothing when one of your fellow travelers shot up Walmart because he was inspired by the same invasion BS spewed by Trump, Fox, etc.

El Paso Shooting Suspect’s Manifesto Echoes Trump’s Language - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Damn straight. Five Guys last weekend for a burger and drink.....no fries or extras=$17.50. outrageous. Biden OUT.