Eh? We are 7.5 months out. Getting wound up about polls now is pointless.

So many things are going to happen between now and then. Both will say a lot of stupid things. Biden will still be old. Trump will be almost as old. The GOP will still talk about abortion. The stock market may keep going up or it may go down (something you told me would be decisive on 2/13/2024 and is up 5.67% since). People will still think the rent is too damn high. SDG's sammiches will be expensive because he goes places that overcharge. RFK Jr will look worse and do worse before we are done (Gary Johnson polled at almost 10% in July of 2016 before getting 3.3% in November) because people will not decide to sit this one out. Trump might go to jail (which could be good or bad for him depending on how it happens) etc. etc. etc..

Windy's OP is not exactly groundbreaking. The perception of the economy, crime, and immigration will all play a role, everyone knows that. Democrats have had a hard time communicating for as long as I have followed elections. They seem to think if they just keep saying the same things people will finally pick up what they are putting down. Meanwhile Republicans seem to understand that if your message gets more than 5 words long you are losing the audience.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

yep you're right. Nothing to worry about. Plenty of time. After all, Biden has just seen a temporary period below 40%. Plenty of time for people to change their minds about both candidates. We don't know much about either in terms of their public or political life and positions and track records.

you and gee-tee are pointed in the right direction. I like discussing with you more though. Gee-tee got some weird perverted fetish stuff going on.

I sorta get your motivation around our rebuttal with the "but but but Trump" refrain. But, even if we were to limit ourselves to the listed issues, both current new ones and the age old ones, any discussion of the upcoming election is going to get personal about the candidates. We can sort all we want the dumbed down Trump stump talking points in comparison to the faults falling Biden's way both because of current policies and the simple fact he is in charge when shit happens, I maintain it only natural, and not a devolution, to settle in the end with the " but but Trump " argument.

Biden can win again simply because of the no shit negative ugliness that informs on the character that is owned by Trump. Character matters. If it did not matter, the pubs would not be pursuing the character assault on Joe Biden and his impeachment without crime backing. My lens tells me they are simply trying to even the character scale, bad character meets bad character.

Many here ( and the soccer moms of windy's burbs, will gladly concede some issues where maybe another Trump presidency could work to our personal advantage. But then there ain't no getting around that the other side of the scale is loaded with the man's performance post election 2020. It does not pain me to say that the "but but Trump" campaign slogan is a winner.

What I dont understand is that at this point and in 2020 most people had already made up their minds. Anything showing than an incredibly tight race - which will be decided likely in 3 states - is silly.

If the election were held today, I would probably give trump the advantage. But Biden is sitting on a war chest of money, and its just going to be relentless advertisements + trump trials in the fall. Will that be enough to swing things 2-3 points, I dont know, lots can happen.

Most people dont remember how bad trump was as president. Most people follow politics somewhere between where they follow mens and womens nba basketball. A couple of weeks ago a pollster asked some "undecided voters" about how J6 is going to impact their decision in 2024, a bunch of them said they had forgot about it.

Elections are always something to worry about. Polls 8 months'ish out are only marginally useful, especially national. As we saw in 2020, it will come down to a few states.

I mean we could turn it around. Trump is dead even with a guy who can't feed himself soup. He should be worried.

I think the bigger wild card is what happens with the 10 - 15% polling for RFK Jr right now. People don't know much about him, and he is a whackadoodle. So far it looks like he pulls from both about the same.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Despite the lack of nuance your post demonstrates, it’s worth commenting on:

This could really matter in Michigan - which has a. The highest percentage of Muslim Americans b. The slimmest margin of victory for Biden in the last election.

I don’t expect anything to pain you about but but Trump. You have clearly expressed your hatred for him. I expect everything about your posts and judgements flows from that

Nobody’s questioning that Biden can win. The title of this post is why he may lose. My original comments here were that he might lose (or that Trump might win can’t remember) Clearly those who aren’t staked to Biden here still think he is and should be the favorite hence “might and may”

The thing I find so interesting is he is not. Currently. And hasn’t been for several months. And has had an approval rating below 40% for as long as I can think back to. And you all seem fine with that

There are things he could do right now to help himself. I’d start to point a few of them out but in this room it’s an exercise in futility. Because mostly people here want to disagree with the premise there is anything wrong to begin with.

You yourself have staked yourself to a more than 81 million votes claim. Current boots on the ground situation be damned

Maybe you’re right. Maybe all the minorities and soccer moms and Jewish voters (and Muslim voters…..) and young people will just fall in line last minute and do what they always do.

If you’re right we will both wake up the next day and the sun will come up. My life won’t change much over either guy. If it’s Biden I’ll continue to complain about things I see he is doing which are bad for the country. If it’s Trump whether I do that here or not will depend on whether I’m just repeating what everybody else is saying or not.

Sure seems like if you’re wrong it’s gonna bother you a lot. I’d think you’d want to talk through the things that Biden could be doing differently to improve his position prevent that so if he doesn’t you’d have a basis to be upset

But you and others here seem to be confident all will be well and he’s got character and he will be fine

Most of my responses here have been to people who see it different and are meant to strike a conversation about that. The rest, like yours, I’m just going to keep agreeing with you and see what the reaction is come November

You are correct about the polls 8 months out. The margin I would find worrisome if I were in the Biden camp is the fact that to my knowledge in 2016 and 2020 at no time was Trump tied or ahead.

Agree on a few states. See my comment above and where most/all of those key states are polling now

I get turning it around. Go figure seems to think character will be the deciding factor. In this case I would put soup eating ability and character as a wash position

RFK is an issue. As to that I think, more so than people changing their minds, people currently saying RFK and then breaking for one or the other is likely. Everything I see has that break pretty evenly split

You left out a whole bunch of obvious ones.

A military withdrawal that makes our withdrawal from Vietnam look positively joyful.
Weaponizing government departments against political enemies.
War in Ukraine.
War in Israel.
Increased potential for war in Taiwan
Weakening the US military
Multiple penetrations of US territory by hostile spy platforms (Chinese balloons)
Killing American energy production

I think we can all agree that a talking point list really isn't complete if it does not include Chinese spy ballons.

Do me a personal favor. If required, as you may have already covered the subject with him, have a talk with your son about character and its importance alongside the evaluation of what one wants in a sitting president. At 19 I voted for Tricky Dick without a full comprehension of the importance of character and then voted for Ford thinking his pardon of Dick was an admirable thing to do.

The sun will come up regardless. And if President Trump tries to go too far again, I am in full confidence that the Senate will get it right this one last time and find him guilty of an impeachable charge.

Thanks.

I don’t plan to opine to them on the character of either candidate. Neither of which is all that stellar

Update:

Immigration and measels (kinda the same thing) still going strong as a topic of conversation

Crime still a discussion topic

Trump will initiate court battles in multiple states. Biden may lose the election if the election ends up in courts or decided by State legislatures.

Biden will not lose the popular vote . . . and Biden will get more electors than Trump . . . but that might not be enough for Biden to actually win.

A major part of this election is going to come down to immigration vs womens right to chose, it's going to be close but I'm saying Biden wins.

The only thing consistent about Windy's predictions is he is almost always wrong. Remember his assertion there would be a "bitch of a recession" about now?

‘Envy of the World’—U.S. Economy Expected to Keep Powering Higher - WSJ


Or his assertion that the S&P 500 would be at 3900?
S&P 500 notches first record high close in 2 years; chipmakers soar | Reuters

Or his nonsensical claim that abortion is settled and will not be a factor in this years election?
Abortion in Arizona: What to know about the near-total 1864 ban | AP News

One characteristic I like about Biden is that he seems responsive to new information. A good leader/ decision-maker will know they have a solid foundation, but they are not satisfied with that as the information they use to develop strategies and policies. Current information is critical and becomes the foundation for future decisions. As we age, I think it’s really easy to rely on our mastery from years ago. But that obviously becomes outdated information, although it still has value for historical context. From what I see of Biden’s work, he appears able to respond to current information pretty well.

As an aside, I have some medical malpractice cases these days involving elderly people who have diminished capacity. I also have middle-aged witnesses who I assess for their ability to provide useful testimony. For both the elderly patients and their younger nurses, the act of decision-making is very important! The capacity to make judgements— using current information to make decisions, is central. Thinking about Biden, from my very casual observations about his responses to Middle East violence, it looks like he is not entrenched in old ideas or unable to respond.

I think this was written by David Sedaris, but I’m not sure

I think that would be an accurate analogy if the flight attendant failed to mention the chicken is actually raw.

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Long Chile was a silly place.

Undecided | The New Yorker

it was David Sedaris.........in 2008

I'll take the raw chicken please.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Are you happy about being fed raw chicken?

Would you like an option between salmonella and picking bits of glass out of shit? Would you be upset at the airline for only offering those two choices?

This narrative that one side is god awful and the other is merely slightly imperfect is ridiculous. We, especially, should be able to see this as Canadians. We've had 10 years of raw chicken. In BC we've had 7 years of NDP. How's that working out for us?

At some point you need to say "hey maybe it's this raw chicken that is continually making me sick."

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Long Chile was a silly place.

TBH your analogy isn’t great. Biden isn’t real chicken. Neither is Trudeau. Are either great? Hells no. Are either country going to crap because of their decisions? Hells no.

I’d say Trump is shit with glass in it, Biden is overcooked steak.

Whilst I don’t really want overcooked steak. I definitely wouldn’t want shit with glass in it.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

I genuinely think Trudeau has been horrible for our country. He's as much a plate of shit as PP. Their economic policies are both awful for most Canadians, and they are both rabidly ideological in their virtue signalling. They're two side of the same shitty coin.

Honestly the NDP hasn't been much better, and it's disturbing how badly they've stripped people of things like property rights and consolidated power away from communities and towards the province.

All I want is a damn plate of cooked chicken.

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Long Chile was a silly place.