windywave wrote:
I chose that phrasing instead of Trump winning for a specific reason.
Immigration
Crime
Transgender
Inflation
I base this off of listening to moms around the area.
Immigration.... Measels outbreaks here in the Immigration center have spread to the general population. Vaccine is somewhere between 90% and 100% effective and they're getting worried their kids will get it. Immigrants begging in out area. They've spread from the city and now stand on corners and in grocery store parking lots with their signs. They don't like that one bit.
Crime....it's up. It scares them. Neither states attorney candidate (Democrat primary is all that matters) is a get tough on crime type. Election is after summer which could be F-ing brutal. Toss in the potential for riots at the convention.
Transgender... they don't mind it in theory until their six year old daughter sees some junk flopping around in the ladies locker room.
Inflation....Shit be more expensive. People I know that are usually extremely price insensitive are now asking comments on how expensive things are.
Analysis: Women more often then men vote Democrat. Abortion isn't that big of an issue to them for a variety of reasons and the above is more tangible offseting that rebuttal (also Illinois has abortion carte blanche and if it was a strict referendum on it they would vote for abortions) .
Whether Biden is responsible for the above is immaterial because it wasn't like this before him.
Lose the soccer moms lose the election IMO.
Immigration is a bigger issue here because Texas has been dumping them here. Chicago is Chicago crime wise but it's worse now. Yes I live in a liberal bubble relative to the rest of America which is why this could be bad for Biden.
The thorazine crowd in here will lose their shit but we all also know they have problems processing simple concepts.
excellent post. It will be argued with as to why it's "not true" and eventually will devolve into "but but Trump" rather than addressing what Biden and the Dems can/could do with the time remaining.
Blacks hispanics soccer moms. In about 4-7 states.
Anecdotally, My house in a swing state in 2020 went 3-0 Biden (with my daughter not making it to the polls due to "being in school"). We've added a 5th since then and as of today we are solidly 3-2 Trump with the 2 being the most likely to not make it to the polls.
Anecdotally, I had a dozen 18-19 yo's at my house one night last week (spring break from school everybody getting together at home). boys/men and girls/women. All 18-19 (none voted in 2020). They started the conversation, I was listening it was 12-0 Trump all over "Biden is an old dude we need to get him out of there"
you can't win on negative the other guy alone. There was a thread recently about "are you better off". Slowman, out of most all posters did the best job of trying to verbalize why he was (while calling Biden a centrist....). If I recall correctly the things he hung his hat on were:
1) nobody is F@@@@'ing with my entitlements
2) I can get a covid booster with my flu shot
3) nobody is destroying our national parks and monuments
4) i can take advantage of some solar credits for my pool and my gated compound.
That was the best case I saw built and, while I'm sure accurate, isn't exactly a list which strikes a chord with your average Americans current concerns.