I think some of the questions about her desire at the time were also fueled by her own past comments about how much she disliked triathlon. She clearly has put those doubts to rest since then.

Left this for a few days.
The points I tried to make were that, like Milner, Jorgensen's USP is her demon run; and like Milner, her weakness is a non-front pack swim and below average bike strength so that both rely on others dragging the chase pack up to or close to the leaders, which then allows them to be part of the conversation.

On the 'mentions' element, ex-Olympic champion Jorgensen obviously has a much higher profile and is bound to continue to get 'mentions' however far back she is, because of the USA team dynamic / selection trilemma (Spivey/Jorgensen/Zaferes) means this topic will run and run. Quite likely Milner will "not be mentioned" after the gun goes off, unless the bike looks as if it's going to end up as a massive pack with him in it, when I bet there will be mention.

Where your imagination of "Gwen hating" comes from or why you think I "dislike you" are mysteries to me. Maybe confusing me with someone else? I think "stupid" is an overused adjective. I don't think comparing Milner's strengths and weaknesses with Jorgensen's is unreasonable.
Have a good ride and hope you enjoy Yokohama, live.
Here's GTN's effort at explaining all the various nation's OQ/selection(jump to @20:04):

Okay.

I hope it’s an interesting race too. I don’t think either will be relevant but you never know.

since 2023
https://www.triathlon.org/.../68698/katie_zaferes races started in 15 different locations
started her campaign ranked 143 rd

https://triathlon.org/...40887/gwen_jorgensen races started in 16 different locations
started her campaign with no ranking.


in their first head to head april 2023 gwen lost by 50 seconds in a sprint race despite swimming and riding in a pack against a solo zaferes.
katie was just better at that time doing a solo breakaway on swim and bike ,she had the swim and bike level required at world series level. gwen did not i think even pat agrees with that .
gwens swim and run was good for world cup level and she did extremely well at the 2nd tier level. but what would it have done to sub her into world series with and iffy swim and weak bike, she would have done less world cups and have less points with a 98 percent certainty.



gwen can still direct qualify katie cant .
overall i would still say she has the same chance to qualify as katie , if she does a solid race into t2

Ok my takeaways from the ladies race last nite:

We can put to rest Knibb's swim, barring some catastrophic bad start, she will be in the lead group and not pulling up any back markers. However she really did not show any great bike prowess, just doing a little to keep the pack moving and really burning a lot of matches where they did no good. Her run was a continuation of what we saw in Paris, and she showed she is now a medal contender if she can get her dam transition down.

Spivey is on the team, and the French now actually have a shot at a podium sweep, that's how good they are. Not likely, but just to be able to see a scenario where that could happen, well just a tell on how good all their ladies really are.

Gwen most likely out of the conversation now, unless they can get her a start in Calagri, which then opens a crack for her. I really hope they can make that happen, Rappaport is done and dusted, so sub her out, take Gina off the list, and hope for last second cancellations and or openings.

This course was similar to what they will race, so it is a preview that there will most likely be a break. It would have been more pronounced had a couple more that were missing were there, and Kingma wouldn't have flatted, only to use her power to pull up Gwens group.

Just really nice to see Duffy back too, she has her biggest weapons to be there at T2 in place, and not a horrible run being that she probably did more work up front than anyone. Just that the field has closed the gap on her, so she will have to be smarter in her efforts, wont just be running away from everyone after hammering the bike like last time..

SO glad we now have a data point, this season has been crazy and athletes racing all over the place, but not in big conquenocial races..Good stuff

In my opinion there are only 2 scenarios for Paris for the women.

1. Lead group stays away - take Knibb and Spivey.
2. Chase group rides back into contention - take a strong runner.

Knibb and Spivey would be auto MTR choices - which I think you have an outside chance of a medal. Duffy qualified. Cagliari is going to be interesting for GBTri. GTB/Coldwell/Waugh

Aus women are going to be a bit of a dilemma, have any auto qualified? None of them are medal contenders so those selections should be purely on MTR ability.

France have 3 strong women and going off this weekend I would take Bergere. France Tri are saying Connix is ok nothing serious after his crash.

On the mens side I think there is a lot more up in the air. Richard Murray can only qualify now through the MTR in Mexico. Aus men had a good show and Willian qualified. Brownlee - what the heck is going on there? Van Riel qualified I think. Blummenfelt - it ain’t over!

After watching the women, we might can see in Paris a furious swim followed by a damn hard bike leaded by Knibb and Duffy: I think these two women will try to drop Beaugraund,Potter and Tersch(nobody is talking about her but she is one of the favourites) before T2. Other women that could hold within the group might be Spivey, GTB, Lombardi, Lindemann and maybe other brit. This is a very likely scenario...
As for the men: the frenchmen will push the swim to leave Yee and Wilde behind. If they follow a good wheel (Wilde will pull too) of a so so swimmer they may be into contention (Blummenfelt). I don´t think that the race that we saw in Tokyo will happen again.
I have the feeling that there will be breaks early in both races and they will not come together in T2 (a small group in the women´s race, like in Tokyo, a bigger one in the men´s...up to 15 with the 3 frenchmen, Vilaça, Hauser and Van Riel,maybe Pearsonamongst others). Yee, Wilde, Blummenfelt, Geens...behind.

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Brooks has said that McElroy needed to auto Q to get the second spot for the us…. I think that’s unfair. He’s clearly better than smith and rider.

I’ve got to presume they are going Spivey, Pearson, Knibb on the last three legs of the relay. The other candidates have basically never beaten McElroy head to head in any distance. Why do they think Rider can beat McElroy in a leadoff position? Riders ability to solo a strong bike leg and then punch above weight class
In a short run don’t matter in the lead off. He’s going to get off the bike with the lead com and then get beat by 18 seconds on the run.

Chelsea Burns released a podcast today (Chasing the Burn) where she chats with Paula Findlay and Eric Lagerstrom about the two races yesterday. Talks quite a bit about the US men’s situation and the need to pick the second slot with full focus on MTR. The takeaway was that Matt McElroy has not performed when given MTR opportunities.

https://podcasts.apple.com/...he-burn/id1734243615

I’ve got to presume they are going Spivey, Pearson, Knibb on the last three legs of the relay.//

I havent followed those left on the mens team to make an informed judgement, but for sure whoever they think is better in the MTR, that is your guy. Doesn't matter who beat who in these other races, the only real data point from a race to use is maybe super league, or some other super sprint race. That short super fast Tri really is a specialty, and we have 3 great legs now with Pearson back on form, and a legit shot at a medal there. We just need the first guy to not get beat by too much, an amount that someone like Spivey could possibly pull back. Think she pulled back something like 18 seconds once in one of these last year, so she has that potential to get us back to even by leg 3.


So I'm going to say rankings, races, head to head, are just data points. No one should be given that spot just because of those, especially if someone else is considered a better super sprinter. I know it is hard because there just isnt much information there, but they know who they think can do best for whatever reason, its not about being fair somehow with these discretional picks. We all saw that last time around with Spivey, nothing was more unfair than that pick..

Not to keep rehashing, but Spivey being left off was fair. She didn’t AQ, they went with who they thought has most medal potential, they chose well.

I would love it if they announced Spivey now for Paris. I think it is smart to take a look at Katie in Cagliari, then either pick her or Gwen for the discretionary spot. Unless Kasper shows something wild in Cagliari, bring her as the alternate.

Gwen had the second best run of the day and has a shot if they all come off together. If not, Team Taylor should be up front.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

You guys need to give it up with Gwen. She still can't swim, bike or transition with the big girls and that never is going to change. The women are not coming together in Paris, just like they did not come together in Tokyo, the Test Event or Yoko. The fastest run (which she didn't have -- that would be Tertsch) doesn't matter if you start over 2 minutes down and the front women are running the same (or close to the same times -- Periault would have run faster had she not enjoyed her time on the blue carpet). Also, don't forget that she did a lot less work on the bike than the front women.

Flora now is going to be in the mix in Paris. She's going to come off the bike in the lead group and just ran a 34. That's a remarkable recovery.

I will stop talking about her when I want to, thanks. And I don’t think anyone here thinks she’s got a great shot to make the team. She finished 15th which means she’s not where she hoped to be. But the US women have 3 slots, not 2, and she should soldier on until that 3rd spot is determined. Objectively it’s not likely going to her.

And for what it’s worth, if you don’t want to talk about her you do know there is something you can do? Right?

Not saying you’re wrong, but if I was making the decisions I still might take a flyer on Gwen. I want to see what Katie has, but if I’m USAT I might take a small chance at a medal over a solid chance at a top 10-15.

But Team Taylor for sure.

Also, how awesome was it to see Morgan F Pearson do that? Should he do Cagliari or just spend the next few months staring at his garage wall?

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

There’s 3 pieces of data I’d look at:

1) Matt absolutely sucked leading off a relay in 2022 and wasn’t much better going 3rd last year.

2) Matt finished 26th at the Montreal Super Sprint last year. Seth finished 16th. In 2022 Matt was 20th and Seth 40th.

3) Matt and Seth have raced head to head 40,50,60? times. I think Matt has won every single time over any distance except 2-3 times.

Matt is a better triathlete than Seth. He had two bad relay splits last year. So I guess I get it. But my experience has been when you tell the better athlete, look, we need you do to this, talent wins out.

When that little skirmish happened in the last lap yesterday Matt needed to seize the opportunity. So I cannot say he wasn’t given a fair shake. I could be wrong but I think he’s worked so hard on his bike swim the last 4 months he’s lost just a tad of run speed.

Do we know what happened to Milner yesterday? Looks like he swam better than expected and had a really good run. Was he caught up in that crash?

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Not certain but I think I recall, from the timing, he had already dropped back before the crash happened.

https://triathlon.org/timing/627954

click on his name and you can see the time gaps lap per lap

He biked like an age grouper?

His time differential to the best men was more than the time differential between him and Gwen (bike leg). So he’s closer to being a washed up female pro than a male pro on the bike.

Now to his credit.: most of the time these Uber runners come to the sport they cannot compete in the swim (he can) and the sport is too hard for their run adapted bodies so they end up not even being effective runners (see Webb for example) and he’s done alright with that too. He should stay with it. I actually do think he can be really good.

Huge talent
and he seems to have a lot of Gwen in him ,said if he can't qualify for the Tri in Paris he is going for the -I think -10 k race in Paris
....
So you should like him

I do like him and don’t think his story is written. I’ll follow him. I love this sport and especially guys like him. And I’ll effusively come on here and apologize if he when his bike right; you can hold me to it (though I’m sure Ajax will be all over that!).

Hahaha 🤣
That's funny , you made me laugh.

Do think he should probably stay with Tri though. He does have potential. His swim was better than expected. But it does take a few years to get that bike strength required. Then his run is a weapon.
He should talk to Beth potters coach. Beth actually didn't run that much at one point realising that she had to improve her swim and bike to be competitive.

Me too. Top quality comment @pk

He isn’t being considered for Paris, I think he trains in the US doesn’t he? I think he could be a medal potential in LA but he needs the right environment and I am not sure he has that at the moment.

nottingham uk he appears to train in
can i ask, what do think goes wrong in the environment of an athelte when a guy goes from being a runner till 2020 i think , and then goes from first itu race , to first world cup race win in 15en or so month when it took potter over 3 years. it does not look to me he his behind potters trajectory