I did not hear rockets, the report I heard was Drones, and they have not gotten there yet, so I guess its not officially an attack till they hit? I mean they could just be flying around.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

Watching the news, it appears that the US is planning to try to intercept the drones.

I'm not saying they have launched rockets or missiles yet. I'm asking if they do, do people think the U.S. would aid in shooting them down.

But what I am reading certainly implies the drones are the "blow things up" kind and not the "fly around and look at stuff" kind. Reports are saying they are Shahed -136 kamikaze drones and are part of an "attack."

Texting with my buddy who is at the Tel Aviv airport. His flight leaves in an hour. He says the place is chaos and that they might be the last plane out.

Wow, scary stuff. Hope your buddy makes it out OK, thinking about him.

Oh I am sure its an attack, but Fighters have missiles but you cant just go shotting them out of the sky. So when the drones are over Jordan does someone have the right to shoot them down, what altitude is international airspace?

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

Seems like a very inefficient/low success rate to launch a bunch of drones at your target and they know they're coming, but will take "hours" to get there and thus have loads of time to prepare and enact countermeasures on drones that relatively speaking, are pretty slow moving targets themselves.



.

He just texted me again. Said they are doing the fastest boarding he has ever seen. Plane was scheduled for 1 am but the IDF ordered the airport closed at 12:30 so El Al is getting them on the plane now and they are getting out of there. Supposedly the drones should start hitting around 2 am.

Jordan and Iraq have closed their airspace. Supposedly U.S. Air Force patrolling the Iraq border area and will take out some of the drones.

Nutella has a good buddy at the Tel Aviv airport. As long as his good buddy gets out of this OK I'm sure the impact(s) of this on the rest of the world aren't that important.

After all, Iran has never directly attacked Israel before. Nutella is an expert on the region and will be happy to tell you exactly where this goes from here. In fact, if you question anything he says he will immediately call you a liar and ignorant. So..... relax, sit back, and let Nutella "talk" you through this situation.

And for God's sake whatever you do, don't mis type the word "Cow-Tow" and take whatever opportunity you can to distract from how weak the US has been under Biden in this region if the last 3 years by bringing up Trump as much as you can. Bonus points if you can loop "putin" and "russia" into the conversation (you know, another country and region of the world that's now on fire that never was under Trump).

Jordan has indicated they will shoot down drones that enter their airspace.

Shouldn't Iron Dome be able to take them out even more readily than they do incoming rockets? Ukraine shoots Shaheds down with heavy machine guns.

I wouldn't want to be in the Iranian military. Going to be some incoming strikes before too long.

You can just shooter fighter aircraft out of the sky, you just have to be willing to do so and to accept the consequences. Same with drones. You don’t have to wait for international airspace. We or Israel could ask any countries the attacking forces fly over for permission to engage in their airspace, or we could just take action without asking permission, and deal with whatever diplomatic concerns were raised afterward.

Reporting indicates this retaliation will include as many as a thousand drones, plus cruise and ballistic missiles. We’ll see.

It isn’t a surprise, since it’s retaliation for Israel striking the Iranian consulate in Damascus and killing a dozen including a senior official.

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Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

I've heard it argued that the real value of these cheap drones is that they are meant to exhaust the much more expensive resources that may be used to shoot them down. And of course you send enough some are going to get through, and the whole psychological and political angle of using of them.

Holy crap.

I might be a bit slow but I'm putting 2 and 2 together and starting to think that Tyler might be planning to vote for a rapist.

There are videos on Reddit of the Shaheds but also cruise missiles as well. Also looks like Israel is already hitting Hezbollah targets.

Slow low flying drones are some of the toughest targets. It is just so difficult to detect them. Or at least reliably detect them without also detecting a bunch of false targets.

You have a better chance if you have an airborne radar, but then you need one flying and looking the right spot, which makes this case today one of the easier examples since Israel has time to scramble their awecs. Of course if don’t know if Israel has the ability to target interceptors from data from an airborne radar, since that is generally not needed or present for ballistic missile intercepts.

Fighters with the newest pythons could also likely shoot them down, but that is a very expensive option versus the cost of the drone.

Exactly, Iran needs to “restore deterrence”.


I am sure that the people that said another countries must use force to “restore deterrence” after being attacked will also support Iran doing the same.

What the fuck is wrong with you?

And I was impressed, how everyone just ignored him, lets keep that going.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

So if we get the okay from Jordan, could this be a turkey shoot for and some gunfire practice for our fighters?

I mean bullets are cheap, could you just start shooting at them from a jet? (I guess you risk them exploding so need to keep some distance).

This seems to be an area, we need improved defenses. I mean some kind of drag behind netting to just scoop them up would be cool, if it could be done.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

I've maintained for a while here that all you have to do is ignore these trolls and they will go away or change their behavior, but some people must get something out of engaging with them.

Still not a turkey shoot. You need to know where the drones are. And then have guns in the right place to shoot them.

NDS

I assume since we knew they were in the air, they are detectable on radar, I assume our jets have radar, and I thought our jets have guns and can fly anywhere in Jordan if given approval. Seems knowing where they are and flying the guns there should not be that hard.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

Iranians seized a Portuguese flagged ship earlier today. That's an act of war. Portugal is in NATO. Keep an eye on Barksdale

You understand how difficult it is to pickup low flying drones like this? It is not trivial with radar, especially ground based radar.

This is a best case scenario though, there were hours of warning, so you can get airborne assets that are much better at detecting them. But Jordan and Iraq don’t really have those assets. I am going to assume Israel’s newer awecs would be pretty capable at this (that is just an assumption there could have not be capable of this, but I think a safe one).

It is not like missile launches where the US space based systems and the predictable flight of ballistic missiles would be helpful.

Iran is also saying this attack means the matter is deemed concluded:

https://x.com/...XKV1ghhjJ-gpfjpVyTqg

Which makes sense. This is a pretty calibrated response from Iran for an attack on their embassy. They get to blame the US for not condemning. As long as Israel doesn’t keep poking the bear, this shouldn’t escalate.

I do wonder how much do this attack was less about actually striking Israel, than costing Israel a ton of money and reducing their supply of precision weapons at a time where their support from countries like the US, which they need to fully restock, is very weak.

In other words the message may be “the next attack, you won’t have the interceptors for, so maybe slow your roll.”

This has been in the cards since 1979, we could have changed history back then and we have been half assing for too long of time.

Could the US fire some missiles at them that go rouge and blow up the bridge between Crimea and Russia.. oops sorry.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

It is a bit early but I don't see how this is not a major miscalculation by Iran. 

Global public opinion has shifted against Israel in the last month. This attack will remind the world that Israel is always a target and needs to defend itself.  "Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake"

U.S. and British will take down Iranian drones as they fly over Iraq. Jordan will take them down as they fly over Jordan. Israel will take care of the rest. Iran will look weak and incompetent. 

We can fly anywhere in Jordan without approval

Iran had to do something. Israel attacked their consulate in Damascus. No country can let that go without a response. That attack was surely executed with the expectation and acceptance of an Iranian retaliation as the cost of doing business.

Best case is that the attack does little damage but Iran feels like it’s met its need to stand up for themselves and the temperature goes back down to a low boil instead of bubbling over.

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Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

Totally agree.

Correct, but not accurate. what was attacked was a building in the consulate compound, but the people killed were soldiers, not diplomats. The head guy that was hit was in charge of running Hizballah, not really there on a humanitarian peace keeping task.

Looks like (for now) Teheran does not want escalation beyond this, so trying something that Israel could shoot down and accept without response. The big question is what will Israel do, there's a whole spectrum between nothing all the way down to tactical nukes. We'll see.

Well they used CAPS so the USA should take that very seriously!

I try not to respond to you but seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you?

He makes Comer look smart.

I don't usually wade into these threads, but this might be among the top 5 shittiest responses I've ever seen...

Top 5?? That's a bit harsh. I would have said Top 3 for sure!! Seemed a really shitty reply to make.

In terms of these events, Iran had to do something given what Israel had done. It was well anticipated in that it was all over the news media that something was likely to happen in the preceding 72 hours.
Be interesting to see now what the response from Israel will be, I would imagine the USA will be pushing hard to prevent Israel from escalating things further to avoid a more widespread conflict.

Agreed. And there is an easy pattern to see here: when a LR poster is completely at a loss, or has become an endless consumer of tribal propaganda, they spend much of their time on here doing whatever possible to avoid addressing content and instead focus on just attacking the messenger. It never gets anywhere, but it's always an easy and cowardly way out.

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Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
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US UK and Jordan have all shot down drones.

Only one injury so far

The video over Amman and Tel Aviv is stunning. What's weird to me (comparing to start of air war in Desert Storm) is no AA, just missles.

The terrorist government of America is warned that any support and participation in harming Iran's interests will result in a decisive and regretful response

Sounds like Iran wants to FAFO.

The response from the US would be similar to bombing Libya except sustained and absolutely debilitating to Iran.

https://www.twz.com/...y-strikes-have-begun

Good updates

Post immediately preceding yours

Thanks. I missed that.

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*****
"In case of flood climb to safety"

yes dumb move by Iran

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

I am thinking Israel does not do much. I think tactically Israel is interested in rooting Hamas out of Gaza above all. Any response against Iran complicates things immensely

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

And yet, they attacked first. So ...

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

I can't see what positive outcome they envisioned from this.

Saving face at home will lose it's effect when sanctions or bombs hit.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Who attacked first? Surely you're not so dense as to be saying Israel attacked first

Yes, I am. My understanding, is Israel attacked a Consulate of Iran's. Which was the first direct attack by or on Iran with Israel. No proxy's a straight up hit on Iran. Iran had to retaliate at some level. This was a minor attack, cost Israel a lot in Iron Dome defenses but no real damage. What I think most of the world will view as a measured response, that needs no retaliation from Israel, and this can be left as is. But do the Israel's agree, and they have enough on their platter, that they probably don't want to enter a direct war with Iran.

That said, I avoid the politics of this whole region, cause you can literally go back 1000's of years if you want on who attacked whom first. And which party is in the right etc... Now its possible, I have this wrong, but from literally every article and story I have read, this is the origin of this attack and "justified" retaliation. But I am sure the Pro-Israel crowd has a different take.

And no I don't want to get involved, in a discussion on the politics / History / wars / sides / proxies / enemies of the varies countries / tribes / factions / etc.. in the middle east.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

You're wrong.

Also Israel did not attack the consulate. But claiming they did justifies Iran's attack for the antisemites.

Okay well then most media have it wrong, not sure what sources you thing are legit, but here is one of probably 1000's of articles I could find on it.

From; https://www.theguardian.com/...-was-a-gamechanger#:


Decided to 2nd link in qoute..

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

It's non-productive to try to get into a tit-for-tat on "but he started it..."

Within the context of this specific attack, this is a trade-off of actions. Israel chose to attack the consulate compound in Damascus. They knew that the attack would generate a retaliatory response. This is Iran's response.

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Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

see slowguy thinks it's useless to go tit for tat about who started it.

He then follows immediately defining the context of this attack as "Israel started it" while completely ignoring Iran's involvement in the events of the last 7 months (let alone the last 4 decades).

This is how you have a serious conversation here in the LR. Trail will be thrilled.

This unfolded perfectly.... iran sent the drones knowing they would all be shot down. Matter is concluded and israel has nothing to complain about. Both sides got what they wanted... Israel took out the Iranians they wanted to, and iran gets to scare Israel a bit in return. Case should be closed at this point. If Iran wanted to do anything serious they wouldn't have done this.

I keep hoping you’ll stop posting but then I read and cant believe how easy you make it for everyone to realize how far out of your weight class you’re punching.

I also can’t help but get a little excited for you to be schooled by forum members on foreign policy and military. Unless of course you feel that what you bring to the table exceeds the collective experts here in the LR with distinguished careers.

So…have fun.

They chose to attack the building adjacent to the consulate out of the blue?

The families of Ardeshir Hosseinpour, Masoud Ali-Mohammadi, Majid Shahriari, Fereydoon Abbasi, Darioush Rezaeinejad, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh are disappointed that you already forgot about them.

Of course not, but within the context of any war or conflict, you can break things down into engagements or skirmishes or however makes sense. My point on going ti-for-tat on who started it is that the discussion just degenerates into decades or centuries of finger pointing.

In this case, Israel chose to break with typical norms and strike a consulate compound. Despite a campaign of strikes within Syria, Iranian leadership thought this compound would be safe, because countries typically don't attack diplomatic compounds. The attack was swiftly condemned by the UE and UN, who are generally speaking on Israel's side against Iran, and plenty of experts have commented on how unusual the decision to strike a diplomatic compound was.

Of course, as I said, you can go back and forth trying to count who threw the first stone ad infinitum in the history of this conflict. I don't think anyone here is trying to play off Iran as the innocent victim. However, as you break down this larger conflict, these two events constitute a pretty distinguishable set. Strike and response. Israel made an informed decision to strike, knowing full well the retaliation that had to follow. They surely felt that the value of the targets was worth the breaking of international norms (they aren't shy about that generally), and felt that they could handle a response to whatever retaliation came. Iran fulfills its role by conducting that retaliation. Put brackets around it and set it aside and continue with the rest of the war in Gaza.

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Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

Well said Slowguy. This merits repeating.

" In this case, Israel chose to break with typical norms and strike a consulate compound. Despite a campaign of strikes within Syria, Iranian leadership thought this compound would be safe, because countries typically don't attack diplomatic compounds. The attack was swiftly condemned by the UE and UN, who are generally speaking on Israel's side against Iran, and plenty of experts have commented on how unusual the decision to strike a diplomatic compound was.

Of course, as I said, you can go back and forth trying to count who threw the first stone ad infinitum in the history of this conflict. I don't think anyone here is trying to play off Iran as the innocent victim. However, as you break down this larger conflict, these two events constitute a pretty distinguishable set. Strike and response. Israel made an informed decision to strike, knowing full well the retaliation that had to follow. They surely felt that the value of the targets was worth the breaking of international norms (they aren't shy about that generally), and felt that they could handle a response to whatever retaliation came. Iran fulfills its role by conducting that retaliation. Put brackets around it and set it aside and continue with the rest of the war in Gaza. "

so now its a change from they didn't do anything, to well they did in response.. Yeah here we go.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

Ignore them, if you can't just block them and you wont see their posts anymore, unless someone qoutes them. If no one replies they go away.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

It would be helpful of you pretended to be able to understand the written word

There’s a certain degree of flirtation with the fine line between classical conditioning and calling people out in public.

I don’t block people. Plus, In my experience, I don’t think they go away when we ignore them. At least not on the internet.

TylerTri is the only poster I've blocked on ST. And because the block function is so anemic, it's essentially pointless. I agree with you to a point. But TT's posts degrade from the conversation and TT has made it abundantly clear they are a bad person (at least virtually, and who knows why - I don't really care).

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*****
"In case of flood climb to safety"

The two countries were allies until the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran, which brought in a regime that has used opposing Israel as a key part of its ideology.
Iran does not recognise Israel's right to exist and seeks its eradication.
The country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has previously called Israel a "cancerous tumour" that "will undoubtedly be uprooted and destroyed"
They fund and arm Hamas and Hezbolah, Hezbollah in Lebanon is the most powerful of the armed groups Iran backs. It has been trading cross-border fire with Israel on an almost daily basis since war erupted between Israel and Hamas.
Iran backs several Shia militia in Iraq which have attacked US bases in Iraq, Syria and Jordan with rocket fire.
In Yemen, Iran provides support to the Houthi movement, which controls the most populated areas of the country. To show support for Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis have fired missiles and drones at Israel and have also been attacking commercial shipping near its shores, sinking at least one vessel.
Iran also provides weapons and training to Palestinian armed groups including Hamas, which attacked Israel on 7 October last year, sparking the current war in Gaza and the confrontations drawing in Iran, its proxies and Israel's allies in the wider Middle East.
(BBC News)
It's a bit more complicated that tit for tat

Speaking of anemic...... Iran's stunt was weak and mostly for domestic consumption. The state media made a big deal about it, spinning it as a massive victory. The reality is it was little more than a fireworks show and a waste of money. Israel, the U.S., Jordan, and the UK had a good training exercise.

Unfortunately I doubt the Iranian people will ever raise up against the criminals who run the country so this will only motive them to double down on their effort to become a nuclear power.

Who are those the collective experts here in the LR with distinguished careers?

I blocked someone else a while back, and actually can't find the block now, for tyler, I just ignore he/she.

On this forum, ignoring these type of poster usually get them to leave.

She only posts on political threads, and then in some attacking style to a poster, not really contributing anything.. Kind of like a certain former president.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

It was a measured response.

it cost Israel a lot of $$ in missiles and made their point. I think it was an appropriate response.

Also give's israel a bit more to think about, as it's pretty expected at this point, Iran knew they would all be shot done, but made a good visual. Israel has to rethink what a real attack might look like. Hopefully they leave Iran behind and focus on their other war.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

Are you under the impression we don’t have career military and law enforcement etc on the forum?

I’m not sure how to take your question but I do find it somewhat funny given the fact that Tyler was commenting on Slowguy’s post. I’d wager that Slowguy has infinitely more knowledge on military operations and history than Tyler.

Are you under the impression we don’t have career military and law enforcement etc on the forum?

I’m not sure how to take your question but I do find it somewhat funny given the fact that Tyler was commenting on Slowguy’s post. I’d wager that Slowguy has infinitely more knowledge on military operations and history than Tyler

Who are those the collective experts here in the LR with distinguished careers?
Could have answered Slow Guy.

Now sure Slow Guy is measured and sensible and his stuff is generally pretty good. I am not suggesting Tyler is knowledgable about MIlitary matters, but he is allowed to have a view and don't recall him often disputing Slow Guy, though it probably has occured.

The Israelis have bombed Syria and Lebanon targets multiple times. I think their goal is to degrade Iranian efforts to train Hezbollah and other bad actors trained by Iran in Syria and Lebanon. The Iranian generals were likely involved in that sort of thing. I think the Israelis see it as worthwhile to degrade the ability of those groups to attack Israel. Attacking Iran itself doesn't seem to have the same payoff.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

When asked "show me on the doll where he hurt you", Tyler instead pointed to a jar of creamy hazelnut spread and the Village People's 'In the Navy' video.

Fair, maybe apply same standard to Nutella

Maybe you weren't paying attention, indeed it's not easy to keep up with that poster's misdirections and personal attacks. But - according to that poster, slowguy is a flaming liberal, and in reference to his military service, a chair polisher. That poster contributes nothing positive to this forum.

... don't recall him often disputing Slow Guy, though it probably has occured.

I agree with little Tyler says, but he does say somehing else, abhorrent, crazy, or otherwise. Change from the Ministry of Truth Broadcasts.

If you have the same oatmeal for breakfast everyday, you might eventually want to inject some variety in your menu. That doesn't mean that slopping a big piece of steaming shit in your bowl is a good idea.

Variety is only useful if the options offered aren't useless.

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Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

I see you have generated some animus with your criticism of both Nutella's and Slowguy's analysis of the situation here. But then you have not offered a dissenting view.

you refer to "last seven months and decades" of Iran wearing the black hat ( my interpretation) and now this significant counter attack. Windy also offered up the seizure of a Portuguese flagged vessel as an act of war. You and windy both leave open for interpretation support for further direct confrontation by western powers and regional neighbors against Iran with the end pursuit being regime change. A case could be made that the time is ripe just now for widening the war with both Bibi and Joe both getting to wag the tail with war.

Or, the other case is that Iran has been shown to not have a full Monty armed force be it in the air or on the ground. Hamas Hezbollah Houthi support may be all that that they can muster up. The region's players could be quite content with that realization and have no appetite for further escalation.

A debate can be had with easily supported positions by both the hawks and the doves. Feel free to contribute.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68823348

Truly is hard to go to war without the support of the citizens. I like the "we are Iran not the Islamic Republic" quote.

The tit for tat, save face, lets throw up a bunch of unmanned vehicles equally capable of being a target as finding a target looks to be as good as it gets for Iran's leadership. It is entirely plausible that Iran can do no further damage by air and has no means of getting an Army anywhere near Israel. As none came to stand by Hamas' leadership, so too none have come to stand by Iran's leadership.