It’s still speculation, not investing.

Tread carefully.

With that said, I have friends from all in to dabbling. Many have lost a lot and turned away. It’s the Wild West. I’m simply watching at this point.

One percent likely isn't enough to save you if the dollar tanks and you need the money. It is a novelty diversion for you I guess.

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Exactly this, because there's so much randomness injected into the system occasionally. A Redditor thinks that dogecoin is poised to breakout so it quadruples. It's crazy.

If you're going to invest and forget about it, be careful how you store it. A hardware wallet like a Trezor, for example, isn't too expensive and it's peace of mind.

Im up more money than I ever thought I'd have in my life..... but I bought at the absolute bottom on sheer dumb luck

Edit to say that these are unrealized gains and I will probably never take profit, as I never sell anything in life........so essentially I have nothing.

I bought some just for fun. I have $450 of bitcoin. $650 of etherium and $750 of cardano. I bought it all this year so I've made a few bucks maybe some lunch money. In the future I am looking to invest it as a hedge against the dollar so I am considering a larger purchase which would probably be around $20K. Pretty soon we will all be wiping our butts with dollar bills haha.

I think you should invest a % of your cash and not your stock portfolio. Stocks should rise with inflation? I think most will. I don't know I'm open to others opinions on this.

Most have misspoke. I did invest cash ($4k), but I invested about what is the value of 1% of my portfolio in cash at the time of investment.

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/coinbase-ipo-direct-listing/


Louis :-)

I prefer currency backed up by nuclear powered aircraft carriers.

I put a couple hundred in a few years back for fun... pulled that same amount out as soon as it doubled and proceeded to forget about it until a month or two back. I pulled some more out and am now letting the rest ride just for fun. My thinking is that I got the original investment back so anything else is just profit. With that said, I am normally not a fan of investing in things I don't understand and crypto is way up on the list of things that leave me clueless so it will never be a large portion of my portfolio. It's just play money, and like others have said, speculation.

The comparison to currency is false. Currency is merely a medium of exchange. Its value cannot fluctuate and it cannot be perceived to have a positive value. Why would you spend your dollars if you thought they would be worth twice as much tomorrow? For this reason the appeal of bitcoin ensures its failure as a currency.

That said, bitcoin is a good way to pull assets out of the banking system. This absolutely has value. It is a better version of art or jewelry in this regard. Nevertheless unless you have enough bet worth that 2% is meaningful it is purely a speculative asset for you.

The biggest issue I have with blockchain is that it yet to live up to any of its promises other than being a great way to launder money and manipulate a market. Neither of which have desirable outcomes for the general public.

I think you are confusing blockchain and cryptocurrencies. They are not the same thing. Your statement about blockchain is demonstrably false.

I would argue the same applies to your sentiment regarding crypto. "Laundering money" can have great societal value. In many instances the alternative is government confiscation of privately owned assets. Ask Cubans, Venezuelans, Argentinian, most citizens of African countries, hell most of the global population about this.

Fluctuate how? Currencies all fluctuate in value relative to other currencies because they're traded on exchange markets and are subject to the market forces of supply and demand.

I have a fair amount invested (or speculated if you want) into the space for about 4 years now.


In equity news relating to this:

Coinbase, one of the largest crypto exchanges and definitely the largest US exchange and has by far the largest share of the US fiat onboarding to crypto will have their IPO tomorrow, April 14th.

Expect it to be exciting. I believe it is a 100% public offering...no banks/VCs getting any allocations pre-IPO, its all open to public.

If you're looking to get exposed to the industry, but not directly into crypto, might be something for you. I'm already exposed enough directly, so not bothering with it, but I know a lot of people that will be chain-mashing the Buy button tomorrow on release tomorrow.

Sorry for the Fox news link: https://www.foxbusiness.com/...s-first-what-to-know

Expect other Crypto exchanges to follow their lead. Kraken, the second largest US based exchange already announced it's intent to pursue an IPO.

.

That is correct, but within reason. The volatility on currencies is not that great and the more stable the currency the lower the vol. Indeed the most critical element of a currency is its stability. That is another way of saying that it has low price volatility. And this makes sense because as I mentioned before you cannot enter into a transaction if you cannot have complete confidence in the value of the currency for the duration of the transaction. This is why USD is the global reserve currency and not thai bahts or mex peso or hungarian forints. It has stability, which is another way of saying that you know, within reason, what the value will be from one moment to the next. Which is another way of saying it has limited price volatility. True currencies have very little price volatility. In fact there is an entire apparatus dedicated to ensuring this known as central banking a/k/a the federal reserve in the US.

Bitcoin will never be a currency because its value fluctuates tremendously from one moment to the next. Say you can buy a car Jan 1 2021 with either 1 bitcoin or $47k USD. You have a perfect crystal ball that will tell you what each is worth as of April 13 2021. Which "currency" would you use? USD of course. Why? Because as of today that 1 bitcoin is worth $63k whereas $47k USD is actually worth the same (actually slightly less because of inflation). Bitcoin will never be a "currency" for as long as it is perceived as a speculative risk asset. It cannot be both.

This is true, but not for the reason you give.

Think of Bitcoin as digital gold...it's use case is a store of value. Not a micro transactional unit of account. Bitcoin protocol cannot scale for it to be a transactional currency and never ever will. That is the true reason. You have and will see people move from gold into bitcoin or something similar.

Yes bitcoin price is currently still volatile, but as the ownership of the asset becomes more and more dispersed and distributed out of the hands of large holders and into the hands of the many, the price will stabilize over time. It is still early on this new asset class.

.


.

It's not primarily a store of value. It's primarily a speculative instrument.

Brand new to crypto here. My cousin owed me about $200 for a hotel room so I thought what the hell, let's throw it in ETH and play it out. He got me set up on Argent but if I wanted to, how would I get ETH converted over to USD and then transfer to my bank account, if that's what I wanted to do. It's not exactly clear but it sounds like I may have to go through another app to do this?

It is exactly like gold in that it as much a religion as it is an asset. It is a currency! It is a deflationary asset! It is an inflationary asset! LOL

I'm not familiar with Argent, if you are in the US, you'll have to move the ETH to an App like Circle or Coinbase (you'll have to link and set up your bank account), I think PayPal also is now set up to use Crypto..so can just spend it via paypal app. I have not used any of these apps though so only suggesting you look at them, I only have experience using big on-line exchanges (below):

Or just set up directly on an online exchange like Coinbase (again you'll have to link a bank account). Works same way as an Equity exchange like Ameritrade or Fidelity, etc... you'll have to transfer your Eth to the exchange then sell it for USD, then withdraw it to your bank.

I should say the generic/easy apps typically charge more fees or have a larger spread penalty. you'll always get better pricing and less fees with an actual on-line exchange. But for only $200, you may not care and just looking for the quickest and easiest.

its too inefficient to be a currency. The fees are too high to move in and out of it on a regular basis. The only reason people pay the fees right now is they expect it to appreciate a lot more than the fees. I used it to put some money in an offshore gambling account to bet on the super bowl. I spent $300 and it was only worth about $282 after the purchase. I held onto it two days before moving it into the account and it was up to about 295. I should have just left it in bitcoin as I lost most of my wagers lol

The paypal was cheaper fees than coinbase only about 2% but you can't move it to a wallet. You have to leave it in your paypal account. I use Exodus app as my wallet. I had read somewhere that you should have a separate wallet and move it off the exchanges after purchase. I don't know why though.

In regards to volatility and fluctuation, I read an article recently about Tesla accepting Bitcoin as payment for cars and what that means regarding lemon laws and refunds.
The fluctuation of Bitcoin value makes a straight up refund virtually impossible on Tesla's end.
If you paid $60k in Bitcoin for your Tesla and it turns out it's a lemon or you need a refund for any reason, Tesla has written in it's contracts that they will refund you in cash or Bitcoin, whichever they see fit.
In other words, if you buy your car for 1 Bitcoin and 30 days later it's a lemon, but the value of Bitcoin has risen $10k, Tesla won't refund you 1 bitcoin, they'll just cut you a check for the dollar amount paid. On the flip side, if Bitcoin drops $10k in that 30 days, they will almost certainly refund you your 1 Bitcoin leaving you less $10k and no car.

It'll be interesting to see how companies work through this if Bitcoin, or any other alt currency, wants to be a valid form of payment.

Thx I'll check out Paypal and Coinbase.

The effect is that Tesla doesn't really accept bitcoin. They just pretend to. When you choose Bitcoin, they convert the dollar price of the car to Bitcoin, and give you a 30-minute window to send the Bitcoin before the transaction is cancelled. They're that afraid of Bitcoin volatility. It is more complex than paying with cash, and there is no discount. No benefit that I can see, other than marketing/branding.

I don't think Musk is afraid of the volatility. I think its just not smart business to let the customer a get a freeroll on the purchase price when the bitcoin can go down 10% overnight. I don't think its any more complicated then that. He already has at least a 1/2 billion dollar gain on the Company's bitcoin holdings. If I recall correctly they bought it when it was less than 40000 per coin.

What's the difference between those two?

They're adding a lot of complexity to protect Tesla from bitcoin volatility.

If you can’t see the difference I can’t help you

No need to get all snippy! Maybe "concern" about volatility rather than "fear?"

Some good insights. But why do you say better than art or jewelry? Certainly more liquid right now, but art and jewelry have stood the test of time as a store of value. Much lower possible downside than zero for cryptocurrencies. Looking back over the past 50 years, it seems harder to find a better asset than high-grade art works. And a some level the NFTs (which in my mind have a lot in common conceptually with cryptos) seem less speculative because they are leveraging the concept of artistic or unique works which has been such a proven store of value.

To the original question, I keep my dollar hedge in physical precious metals and am sitting out cryptos. The time to speculate was five years, when the downside was small. Now the stakes are dangerously high.

It seems pretty easy to get ripped off in the art market unless you're an expert. Not to mention all the money laundering.

And as far as jewelry goes, diamonds are one of the biggest marketing scams ever perpetrated. Especially in the modern era where synthetics are indistinguishable from natural diamonds to the naked eye.

I say art or jewelry because the real purpose of these is that they are non financial assets. The real value of a van goh or a da vinci is not that it is "great art." No, it is because it is a store of significant value that is outside the financial system. The fed cannot wake up tomorrow and inflate your asset away. The government cannot confiscate it by nationalizing the banks. The IRS cannot tax it out of existence. Further, it is timeless and can be sneaked around discretely unlike other non financial assets, notably land and real estate. This is the value proposition of high value art. It is a store of value that is not a financial asset.

The same is true for jewelry, gems, physical gold. Watches are my favorite: rolexes are the original bitcoin. Their value is extremely consistent and can be moved around and transacted with ease. Tell me the serial number and condition and I can tell you within 10% what a rolex is worth. You can hide a significant amount of capital in a small space with a box full of rolexes.

I say "better" because it is very liquid and can be hedged with futures. It prices instantly and transaction costs are relatively low. Provided you hold crypto in cold storage it is easier and cheaper to store. You do not run the risk of being defrauded on bitcoin.

PS: precious metals are a terrible currency hedge. Run a regression of gold vs. inflation. The correlation is 0. I suspect platinum is highly positively correlated because its greatest use is catalytic converters, the consumption of which is highly cyclical. Silver is an industrial metal. See my comment that gold is a religion not an asset. Its properties are taken on faith, not data.

Also, don't forget that the IRS will treat the exchange of crypto as a reportable sale.

This is worthy of it's own thread discussion. There are some really good documentaries out there on this on DeBeers (i think) and the diamond syndicates and the marketing/advertising campaigns at the turn of the century to create the diamond demand as we know it. It is a complete manufactured an created demand.

The big litmus test is go buy a diamond at a store, then go try to re-sell it a month later. No one will buy it from you, even the jeweler that you purchased it from, except at a massive devalued discount.

.

 
.... no discussion here on Coinbase listing today? Anyone buy in?

Fraud is that bitcoin do not exist or you are sold phony bitcoin. You can have a high degree of confidence this is not the case if you are dealing with reputable cointerparties. More so than with art or jewelry.

Just the fucking dumbest thing going on

I dunno. My favorite example is if you took minimum wage in 1965 ($1.25), paid in 1965 (90% silver) quarters it would be around $20 today if you were still paid in 90% silver coins. Help me understand how that is a terrible currency hedge?

20 years ago the price of gold was $300/ounce. It's 6X now. Again, what maths are you using to conclude gold is a terrible hedge?

If gold were a good inflation hedge it would have done very little in the last 20 years since there has been very little inflation during that period. And yet gold price has moved with stocks. That would it imply that it is a financial asset, not an inflation hedge.


Run a regression of CPI vs. gold prices. There is not much of a relationship. The last 20 years is a bad time series because it was during this period that the ETF came out. Prior to this the only way you could own gold was to own physical gold. Now you own it like a stock and it trades on an exchange. This is actually very bad for gold since it is now a financial asset. The whole point of gold as a real asset is that it is not a financial asset. Well, now it is a financial asset.

If you are interested google "financial assets vs real assets."

This is wrong, and I don't know how you can hold that up. Currency is more than a medium of exchange. Fiats fluctuate daily, and the value is derived from the social construct. Bitcoin and crypto as a whole will not be failure. I mean, how could you claim that it is a failure when people are out there today getting paid their salary in Bitcoin.

---

Gnothi Seauton.

I think we are entering a watershed period, and anyone that ignores its significance will be in peril to catch up in the future. This period is like the early stages of the internet, in my opinion. How one does not recognize that this is a big change movement and disruption ... well, that doesn't make sense to me how it's not extremely obvious to someone. This is not going away. Choose to be a FUD at your own risk. I mean, there are already whole ecosystems that are developed and growing ... finance, interest growth, and credit.

Yet, to dive in just out of hype and excitement is equally ignorant to denying the significance. There is a bubble that's building. There will be significant consolidation in the future. But, there are technologies and constructs that are certainly better than others, and I think it is wise to really understand the technology. It is the technology and its application at the end of the day that will matter. Knowing where to put your resources will always matter.

---

Gnothi Seauton.

Yes - multiple times. Building to be one of my largest holdings.

---

Gnothi Seauton.

Meaning you bought multiple lots since opening this week?
Or you're among customers that have had an account with them and transacted often?

Looks like COIN is at $322 this morning.

Personally, I don't think this is just like any regular ipo/listing and the usual hype, but I'm not sure if it an industry game changer like AMZN was (i.e. became) when they launched.

Be interesting to watch at least.

Let's be real, when Amazon was selling books online nobody thought it would be what it is today. A lot of people thought that buying things online was crazy at the time.

That being said, it's pretty rare these days where a profitable company with enormous growth becomes public. Amazon didn't make a profit for a very, very long time.

True. But perhaps it was only Bezos and a few others at that time always had the long term view beyond books. Most just saw books.

My point on Coinbase was that some analysts have viewed the valuations as unrealistic, their business model as unsustainable, the crypto field as questionable, etc. Others have argued that CB represents a landmark milestone point in the evolution of crypto, much like Amazon did for commerce/retail (though few realized that at the time).

Future will tell.

I've made several stock purchases since listing, and have CB account for transactions.

---

Gnothi Seauton.

Agree, it will be similar and it is very early in that cycle, but it's accelerating. Think back: scoffing at the uselessness of the crazy idea in the 1980s of "internet" when your kid was explaining to you about how she uses a dial-up modem to access bulletin boards to chat and fileshare. This is where we are now, kind of, with crypto and blockchain tech.

Blockchain technology (of which cryptocurrency/bitcoin is only part of the echosystem and usecases) will revolutionize many industries and be complete disruptors in certain areas, like traditional banking and FinTech. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) will turn these industries and process over and make them obsolete in the way they function today. They will be extinction level disruptors of current FinTech technology and processes. I don't know if that will be in 5, 10 or 20 years but it will happen. It is already happening, rapidly.

Imagine:

• when all equity stocks transition to being on a blockchain and tradeable, dividends, stock splits are all handled instantly by smart contract directly to you.
• not having to go through an Ameritrade/Fidelity to buy and sell stocks
• buying and selling stocks peer to peer, instantly, decentralized
• trading and transactional fees costing basically nothing
• moving your own money around between financial institutions, globally and not having to pay a $30 wire fee and/or waiting 5-7 business days for it to go through
• earning 5-10% interest on your liquid funds sitting in a "bank" instead of the 0.1% you currently get handed to you
• lending your money out and earning that interest yourself, instead of the bank lending your funds out and not paying you a dime.
• being able to send money to family and friends across the seas instantly and for just "pennies" cost

I'm just scratching the surface and not even being creative here. All just basic elementary stuff above. The idea of DeFi and Crypto scratches my libertarian itch in a good way also.

.

Directly or indirectly most of those things will require proactive deregulation by the government. It's not clear to me that any government anywhere will be incentivized to facilitate the brave new world you're looking forward to and it's not clear to me that I want them to. That, to me, is the big distinction between blockchain and say Amazon. Amazon did something humdrum in a revolutionary way. The basic business model didn't require government buy-in. There are probably lots of applications of blockchain technology where the same is true. But we're not going to wake up tomorrow able to trade in stocks without oversight from SEC and all of the licensing and regulations that that entails just because blockchain might mean we theoretically could.

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

.... no discussion here on Coinbase listing today? Anyone buy in?//

I bought a small position yesterday and it is up 10% already today. I so just want to take that money and wait for another entry point, but this area is so crazy, that I think I will just forget about it for some years. I never got bitcoin, but watched it since its inception, and have kicked myself for not getting just a little bit when it was almost free. So along that trajectory I will be patient, also knowing that the space is also maturing and those gains are most likely never going to happen again...


I have read up and am trying to understand this whole crypto thing, but with my understanding at the moment, it is a pure gamble on my part. I understand the tote board on this thing, just not the thing..

"Currency is more than a medium of exchange."

How well do you understand currency? If there is a single fundamental law of currency it is that it is a medium of exchange. In fact "currency" is really just a synonym for "medium of exchange."

It is like saying "there is more to evolution than natural selection." Maybe, but it is the only thing that matters. If you do not understand this you do not actually understand evolution.

Ditto with the importance of medium of exchange as its importance to currency.

What have you purchased using bitcoin as a currency?

It wasn't that long ago, the way people would buy things (outside of big purchases like homes) was with actual physical currency. Using anything other that cash was almost unheard of. Millenials don't use cash much anymore. All this happened within the span of a generation. I wonder how many people in the 1950's could have imagined a world in which people walked around with a mobile handheld computer to pay for everything.

FishyJoe wrote:

It wasn't that long ago, the way people would buy things (outside of big purchases like homes) was with actual physical currency. Using anything other that cash was almost unheard of. Millenials don't use cash much anymore. All this happened within the span of a generation. I wonder how many people in the 1950's could have imagined a world in which people walked around with a mobile handheld computer to pay for everything.

I think you highlighted a big thing about the lack of cash use, at least in the US. My wife and I being at the edge being a Millennial, we might have $100 "cash" in our name at any one time. Most of this is so my wife and do here girl things and give some tips. Cash just isn't a thing, which I believe makes crypto more likely to become a mainstream payment method.

There are several things that need to happen, I likely see some consolidation in the space. The valuations of many of the cryptos are still high imo. I think we are in that greed/delusion phase somewhere. As we hit the backside of this curve, it will be interesting which cryptos stick around and are then viable for the future.

Hmm...I'm 47, and I have early childhood memories of my mom doing the super-time-consuming checkbook thing with the multiple ledgers, etc. I also remember credit cards with the carbon imprint machine thingy.

Now I see some old person start to pull out the checkbook and I'm OHHH HELLLNOOO.

Possibly because the exchanges have been a weak link in the security of cryptocurrencies. Though mathematically sound, whenever humans start getting involved as middlemen, there starts to be vulnerabilities.

this is just a bad strawman. The great utility and innovation of the blockchain concept is indisputable. However, why one unit of a a specific product (Bitcoin) based on this technology should be worth $60,000 USD makes no sense.

to go back to your internet analogy (which I actually think is a good one), back in the late 90s we saw stocks with insane valuations because they were based on e-commerce or use of the internet as a platform. Many of these individual businesses catastrophically collapsed (or continued at a fraction of their peak value) and of course we know what happened with the internet (huge success). The same is likely with crypto, block chain is likely to become embedded in almost anything transactional, however many crypto products currently in vogue will be rendered worthless.

How many search engines (yahoo, netscape, altaVista, ...) were #1 before Google eventually came to completely dominate the market and make these early winners crumble. Now change yahoo to Bitcoin.

Find me anyone who says the blockchain concept and technology is bogus. In fact, tell me what the biggest critics of bitcoin actually have to say about blockchain itself?

Pissed off last sept when I almost bought $200 worth of Dogecoin at 2 cents. I said this is a joke coin, I am not investing.. Well that would be worth over $20,000 now.. ARRRRRGGGGG so close to a big win.

---

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

I am kicking myself for not jumping on that bandwagon.

That said, I put $100 into DOGE today just to see what happens tomorrow. I wouldn't call it an investment. Just a game to play with a little extra money.

I think I agree with most of this.

Picking your post to reply to though with the one thing that I really can't get over about bitcoing / blockchain technology: that we still don't know with certainty who Satoshi is.

We have detailed photos and schematics of Putin's secret palaces.

When Andrey Guryev, another Russian oligarch, expended all the effort that money can buy to keep his ownership of Wittenhurst secret it took one great journalist and a bit of digging to cut through it all.

Corporations can't keep your data secure, governments barely fare better beyond the medium term.

Are we really to believe then that an individual or, accordingly to some of the more developed theories, a group of individuals, created a world altering technology, retained a paper fortune in the 11 figures and remain unknown? That he, she or they never realized any of that fortune in order to maintain that secrecy? Really?

The sheer improbability of that fact and it's lack of historical precedent I think at least opens the door to conspiracy theories about what's really going on here.

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

Security is a matter of degree. I've trusted, my entire life, my savings to various digital formats used by corporations. I will continue doing so. (vs. gold bars under the bed. etc). While there's no such thing as total security, I've yet to experience (knowingly) any sort of loss or fraud outside of my credit card getting fraudulently charged. And I was 100% reimbursed for that. Bitcoin hasn't yet exceeded this combination of stability and security. (Though the blockchain itself is fundamentally secure, the exchanges and wallets have been subject to issues).

I'm lost on the Russia bit. What does that have to do with anything?

And the Satoshi bit is a good mystery, but irrelevant to the efficacy or credibility of the core innovation, which has been extensively validated.

The Russia thing wasn’t a Russia thing, just two examples that sprung to mind of how the richest, most powerful people in the world can’t keep secrets if the public find those secrets intriguing. So how has “Satoshi” done it? I don’t doubt that blockchain “works”, my point is that it’s hard to feel confident about the future trajectory of something if you don’t know it’s origin. And if it’s origin is bizarrely mysterious, caution seems warranted.

And the fact you’ve not suffered personal loss from data breaches means nothing at all. If you’re smart I imagine you cycle through passwords. Type the one you used 3 years ago into a blank google search and report back.

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

This is kinda nuts... Not you. The Dogecoin thing. There's no limit to how many Dogecoins can exist. So scarcity (and value derived from scarcity) notions shouldn't apply. And Dogecoins serve no purpose currently -- beyond the lark that drove their creation in the first place.

However $10k in DG at the beginning of the year would be $820k today (!) It's nuts!

It's absolutely nuts. There is nothing at all behind it. It's just "a thing"... I'm just bummed I didn't do this earlier lol. If it hits $1 like Musk is pushing for, I'll pull out of it and take my $200ish in profit and go out to dinner with it.

Looks like DogeDay didn't pan out. It went from 0.36 when I bought it, to 0.32 right now. So much for pushing it "to the moon". Honestly though I am not sure how it could go up much more. There are unlimited possible DogeCoins, so there isn't any supply restriction to drive price.

I lost money on this little bet (so far). I plan to hold though and see what happens. Worst case I lose $100, so I am not terribly worried about it.

You are spot on here. The fact that the identity of this person is completely unknown is a huge red flag.

What's even more crazy is that I have heard almost nothing from any major media about serious investigative reporting to figure out who this person is. Satoshi has conjured an asset class that is now has a greater capitalization (if you can even call the total float of Bitcoin valued in $USD as capitalization) than any corporation on planet Earth. It would be a total blockbuster story. When I think of huge mysteries, this probably has surpased the Gardner Museum robbery and we don't even have a Netflix special on it yet.

From what I understand, Satoshi supposedly holds something like 20% of all bitcoin. What if this thing is a huge plot to cause financial disruption. What if Satoshi tried to liquidate his position tomorrow and what kind of broad financial panic might result if Bitcoin value suddenly cratered because the market was flooded. There are all kinds of fat tail possibilities here.

There are so many ridiculous strawman arguments here. Most of what you claiming blockchain will revolutionize are things that already happened.

1. trading and transactional fees costing basically nothing. Transactional fees are currently almost nothing. We know about Robinhood where its free, but I don't pay any commission for most trades through Fidelity or TD Ameritrade. Not sure what crypto would change here?

2. earning 5-10% interest on your liquid funds sitting in a "bank" instead of the 0.1% you currently get handed to you. HTF do you come up with 5-10% interest? Part of the reason interest is so low right now is extreme excess of money and financial instruments (of which crypto is part of the problem) creating false wealth and a huge excess of money to lend. Can you walk us through the logic of how if we switched to crypto we would suddenly be able earn 5-10% interest, when right now most people can borrow at 3-5%, or like 1% if you are a AAA credit rated corporation.

3. when all equity stocks transition to being on a blockchain and tradeable, dividends, stock splits are all handled instantly by smart contract directly to you. Again, all these things literally happen mostly in a few seconds right now. How for the average person does it matter if you get your dividend credited to an account 2 seconds faster because of blockchain?

4. moving your own money around between financial institutions, globally and not having to pay a $30 wire fee and/or waiting 5-7 business days for it to go through. Again, most people don't pay anything now (I don't pay anything to move money between any of the six bank and brokerage accounts I have). Yes, it may take 2-3 days to clear (but 5-7 business days is not the norm, its about 2X the norm). Again, unless you are living hand to mouth, waiting two days to move some money around isn't a big deal. It will not be game changer to most people if this suddenly is instantaneous. What percentage of people need to move money around globally on anything other than an extremely rare basis. I'm not getting that excited about the potential for free instantaneous transactions when I want to send money to Mongolia.

On these two, I think those are theoretical advantages, but, right now, fees for moving crypto are far higher than regular bank fees. At least for reputable exchanges and wallets (Coinbase fees are straight highway robbery). And for not-reputable ones you get this.


Which indicates that whenever humans are involved, there needs to be human safeguards and regulatory bodies. And that means there'll need to be overhead costs. There are some aspects of crypto that are "safe" but others that are little different.

Ugly day and week if you have money in Cryptos!

Just for fun I invested small amounts in some of the cryptos that have been ignored so far. Figured the bubble-mania may hit one of them, and I figure by the time it hits the news like doge or ethereum, it's already pretty much too late to get the insane 1000+%-type gains.

I started that strategy a number of months ago - doge was one of them and got in pre-crazy, which has been pretty sweet.

Really rich guy buys crypto. Really rich guy pumps up unregulated market for crypto. Really rich guy dumps crypto.

I bet the really rich guy (or another really rich guy) is teeing up round 2.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

I put in a few hundred last week with Coinbase, $200 in Ethereum and later in the week $100 with Cardano. I'm down $30 including fees, because of Ethereum going down. It has been a really good learning experience, so at least I understand it a bit now.

At least you only put $300 in!

I put $100 in to Doge last month. It shot up to $200, but then dropped like a stone. It's back at $100. I'm trying to decide if I should just pull out now and say that it was all in good fun, or just sit on it a little longer.

Obviously it's not a huge loss if Doge totally tanks.

I feel like you’ll see massive gains until it’s heavily regulated. The trick is to hold it more than a day or two once you lose 50% value because eventually it goes back up to ATH. The problem is people panic and sell all the time but the rich guy just keeps buying the dips. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin over $100, 000 by the end of the year.

Impossible to predict where ponzi-scheme-like speculation ends up.

Muppet

Well that and crypto currencies would collapse if they did 1% of the volume of VISA in a day since they can't process the transactions fast enough

Where to even start? I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin over $100k by year end, I’d be even less surprised to see it below $10k. It (as distinct from blockchain technology generally), is a solution in search of a problem and heavy regulation is coming (see China). It’s a wave, ride it, don’t, it doesn’t matter to me, but the idea that it’s always going to go back to “ATH” is based on absolutely nothing at all. You could make a good case that every factor that made crypto currencies attractive is poised to dissipate and they will never again approach their all time highs. Proceed accordingly.

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

The problem with crypto is the analysis. There really is none. I have friends that are “into crypto” and their idea of researching is watching dudes on YouTube and simply using past trends to predict future results. Compared to the stock market you have much more solid indicators and financial ratios as well as financial statements to make an investment decision.

While crypto has oodles of money invested now, I would like to say it’s too big of a market to fail. However, it’s like the Wild West with 100% gains in a few weeks and 100% losses in the same amount of time.

I just have a hard time with this. It seems like pure speculation, FOMO, and gambling.

You forgot the market manipulation

True, blockchain cannot handle that kind of scale currently, but that is not where this is going. There will be layer 2,3,4,etc... solutions built on top of a given base-layer crytpto (like ETH or BTC). That is where you get the scalability. There will be intermediaries that will/are stepping in to fill that need, to provide clearing and settlement services.

VISA would break also if they had to settle each swipe of a card instantly between banks and accounts.

VISA only settles the transactions into USD once a month or whenever you bulk-pay your bill. This is how it will eventually be for crypto.

Even Bank debit cards are not settled for each transaction, not really. Not sure what their frequency of settlement is (from a final standpoint) but i expect it is either on a daily or weekly basis. Sure, your bank account will register the activity of a debit card transaction, but it is not actually settled between the purchaser and users accounts until later, in batches.

.

Not that I'm exactly an SEC fanboi, but the the chief wasn't wrong when he said the other day if your investment strategy is based around the timing and content of celebrity tweets, you're not "investing."

So you are suggesting that for crypto to work as a currency, it needs to mostly be off ledger transactions. Doesn’t that defeat the whole point of crypto? The whole point is you can trust a crypto transaction because it is recorded in the ledger. That provides a record of a transaction that can be trusted (obviously ignoring someone taking over the ledger by having most of the computing power). This allows trust between two parties that have no reason to trust each other. They trust because the ledger provides the record. That trust comes from someone using enormous computing power as a record.

How exactly am I supposed to trust an off ledger transaction? You trust visa or your bank because of their long history or insurance or government regulations. The large banks trust each other and they know sometimes they will be screwed, but that is baked into their business. How could you trust these off ledger transactions?

And the advantage of crypto is what then?

It is kinda like the old odd lot rule.

Financial market are in a bubble so long as crypto is > 0.

I think you have to be careful not to think of crypto as just "Bitcoin". There are lots of other use cases that are built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain, but one of the more fascinating ones to me is the "Smart Contracts". It's all really new and evolving all the time but to me that is a lot of fun to watch that development.
https://www.coinbase.com/learn/crypto-basics/what-is-a-smart-contract
https://www.coindesk.com/blockchain-smarts-contracts-real-world-law

Check out Harmony ONE for something that is fast on the TPS comparable to VISA. With every shard they add 500TPS with a long term goal is 2000 shards, so 1,000,000 and that isn't really limited. 1-2sec finality too.

I don't think anyone is debating the technological potential of block chain.

Bu.....
Transaction processing has always been about competition for increasingly lower cost- usually with tighter margins.

Currency is about stability and credibility.

Equity is about ownership of productive assets.

Honestly - one good use for crypto is as an indicator of what herd investors are up to.

The Fed getting in on the action now with exploring their own USD digital currency.


https://www.cnbc.com/...igital-currency.html


Completely centralized and yet to be described what it would look like, as in would it require going through a bank to utilize it, etc, but it is also moving in the right direction to provide insta-pay solutions for servicing the "un-banked" (hopefully).

Mind you, I doubt their motivation is altruistic and probably has more to do with improving the trackability and auditing and ultimately geared toward increasing the identification of taxable revenue and prosecuting criminal activity.

Secondarily they might see this as a a long-term play nation-state hedge against people migrating to an independent digital currency (crypto).


.

Lol

Someone told me yesterday when Elon said “Tesla had Diamond hands”

Uh, ok.

Thanks guy.... smart contract ain't crypto currency. (Also crypto and blockchain aren't analogous)

idk, transaction processing seems to mostly be about maintaining an oligopoly with high barriers to entry (power of an entrenched network).

Or at least that is how I interpret VISA, Mastercard and AMEX business models. If you could say one positive thing about crypto it is that it is attempting to challenge the existing power structure.

I get 2% cash back on all my Visa transactions, because they charge the merchant even more (so still make a profit after I get my cut). I could argue the true suckers are the ones paying cash, because overall these credit card costs drive up prices for everyone, but at least many of us credit card users get a piece of the action.

I could see that interpretation.

I think the lens of trust is the best lens to look through it. So much of financial transactions are based on trust. Cash transactions are based on trust that piece of paper has value. So not just the currency itself, but also that the paper is actually the valuable paper. So you trust that is real money, not counterfeit. Which is why the government spends so much resources going after counterfeit currency. VISA and the others are so large and have such a reputation, that the merchant will trust when their machines says the transaction was approved. That trust is hard to get, so that results in oligopoly, since it is so hard to get that trust. You need to be so big to get that trust. It is not that VISA created the high barriers to entry, there are just always going to be high barriers to entry, it is required. Now are the barriers higher than they need to be, possibly, but it is impossible to avoid them.

Crypto solves the trust problem a different way. You trust that crypto transaction because a group of someones was willing to devote large computer resources to that transaction. It is a clever solution to the trust problem, but it is so incredibly inefficient. And it can't possibly be efficient. Because it if is an easy problem, then that means you can't trust it. It must be something that takes a large amount of resources to do. So you just end up burning huge amounts of coal so that some people can make speculative investments based off some tweets.

Large financial institutions are just going to be more efficient than crypto. They trade the inefficiency of crypto for high barriers to entry to create the trust. And that seems like a very good trade.

Of course it is silly to even pretend that crypto is a currency or a fincial transaction tool like a credit card. The value fluctuates too wildly to be it. It is not even a zero sum investment game, it is a negative sum investment. In a zero sum, there are at least as many winners as losers, but with bitcoin and the like, there are going to be more losers than winners. It is just a race to see who is left holding the bag.

It kind of is. Cardano ADA is a Smart Contract blockchain tech, but you can rent apartments with the ADA coins


https://dreamlead.me/news/dreamflats-ltd-are-now-accepting-cardano-ada-crypto-currency-for-rental-contracts/

also, I do agree that cryptocoins and blockchain aren't the same. Some coins/tech (think DOGE) don't actually do anything, but people buy them because it is a funny thing to do, so it has value. I view those like baseball cards. But that bubble has to burst at some point because the market will get saturated with these things that don't do anything, and I think that is what we are seeing now. People getting burned on meme coins and pulling out of crypto all the way, just like in 2017. But there is new tech being created all the time that is useful and will have value going forward. Maybe not as true currency, but as a commodity.

I'm on the ban it, not enabling criminals to launder bunch. If people lose money by investing in criminal enabling money laundering, good, You deserve the results of your bad choices.

So you want to ban the $100 US dollar bill too? Because that's the preferred tool of money launderers and criminals.

If you liked it at 60K you must love it at 30K amirite?

A noted software engineer's compelling thoughts on crypto:

https://www.stephendiehl.com/.../against-crypto.html

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

That’s a good critique and captures a lot of my thoughts on the topic.

Yup, and this is another entry from him on crypto absurdity that is very good:
https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/crypto-absurd.html

And there are these as well:
https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/blockchainism.html
https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/disconnect.html
https://www.stephendiehl.com/.../nothing-burger.html


Another problem with this mania is, much like the 2008 real estate crash, there are so many individuals and investment vehicles now, uh, "invested" in crypto, that when this bubble bursts, it is going to affect everybody, even those of us without a single penny in crypto.

When that happens,
Yikes.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

Add that crypto, like all the other disinfo since, say, 2015, is an attack on our country's sovereignty and stability.

Or, you could view it as a hedge. There is no good time to stand up to incremental totalitarianism, by design, so there's a "first to market" advantage for people who give up their principles and get on board.

E

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

I read the article and know nothing more about the currencies than I did before. I was talking with dan about this the other day, and I think that perhaps many of us are never going to understand many of the new technologies. I'm beginning to draw some parallel with some of it, like the purchase of these digital art works. At first it made no sense to me, because I just could not relate to what was being bought and sold.

Then I imagined that if it is possible(and seems so) that one can manufacture a one off digital piece of art, or capture a scene or picture of significance, then it could have value. Just like a Honus Wagner baseball card can fetch millions of dollars because of scarcity and relevance, then why not something digital? I of course do not understand it, or long for it, but perhaps most everyone under 40 gets it, and it is their baseball card, or Mona Lisa?

Perhaps all of us over 40 are not only going to be replaced by the younger generations, but our ideas and things we hold dear will also be replaced too. So not sure if crypto is part of that revolution, but I'm not so quick anymore to dismiss it, just because I dont understand it. In 30 years probably almost no one is going to use gasoline, or even own a car. Probably in person shopping will be basically gone, and stuff just shows up in your smart fridge each week. So much is gonna change, and really fast because of how quickly new tech is being developed. AI is going to reshape the entire world soon, so not a hard stretch to think that money as we know it will just be for collectors in the near future.

All I know for sure is I wish I had put a few 100 dollars into Bitcoin when it was pennies, and I remember that time very well. A sort of lark bet, skipping a months worth of Starbucks coffee's..

Monty, nothing new under the sun. You and especially Dan understand. It’s the great decentralization, money laundering, and proxy war rolled into one. Same as any other thing in the past.

Now, whatever Satoshi did was certainly genius, but we humans are using it for the same things we always did… power and influence, and a certain familiar attempt, historically speaking, to weaken institutions.

Dan talked to me once about fear and greed. Crypto, and the larger metaverse around it, is the same. I personally am considering it as a hedge out of fear.

E

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

It also *possible* that beanie babies and tulips will be worth enormous sums soon. But, if you read some of the other links, it is clear, that along with crypto, that possibility is vanishingly, vanishingly small.

Crypto is a zero sum game. If you make any money, you make it only at some other sucker's expense. Call me crazy, but that seems like not a great way to build wealth.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

There are many things that crypto and blockchain can do other than wealth building. Digital contracts, licensing, money transfer, etc. It's not useless, that's the strength, the potential use cases.

I don't claim to be a blockchain expert, maybe there is an application (other than crime,, etc). But, based on the opinion of much smarter folks than me (see links in post #105), crypto is most assuredly a ponzi scheme.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

crypto is most assuredly a ponzi scheme. //

Then how come when some Russians hack into sensitive computers and ask for a ransom, they ask for Bitcoin and not some wire transfer of dollars to a secret and secure account? I don't really understand what all is being bought and paid for with bitcoin, but certainly if enough people feel it has value, doesn't it? Isnt that true for all monies, its value derives from its perceived value? I know that is a very complicated equation, and we have as a world worked out a system to define currencies. But perhaps this is crypto's coming out party, and it will find itself the new dollars of the future. Or it will be histories tulips, I'm not putting much of a bet either way at the moment. Own coinbase, so don't have to know which ones survive, just that some do I suppose...

Ok, but what does it do that is better than a conventional solution.

For example, money transfers. Electronic money transfers already exist and I can't see any reason that blockchain would do it anymore efficiently than conventional solutions. In fact, it will also be less efficient and require more waste. For example, if I want to transfer money from a Chase account to a Fidelity account, there are of course some tiny overhead for that. But wouldn't a blockchain need all that same exact overhead, plus an additional proof of work or proof of stake layer? It requires that additional layer and those layers must be some sort of pain, because if they did not require much work or stake, then they are not secure. So I can't see how it avoids being less efficient than conventional methods. Plus those banks have all sorts of regulations that make my money way more safe as a bonus.

Now it is true that the fees that conventional methods are higher than some blockchain methods, but that is because of a choice of the institutions, if they were under threat by the block chain, they could easily undercut the blockchain in money transfer fees. For one reason they could undercut it, they don't have to the whole wasteful layer of proof of work or proof of stake.

Bitcoin was super super clever, but I am still waiting for someone to come up with some actual use case that makes sense, beyond foreign remittances because banks are overcharging for money transfers. Because that use case will go away if banks choose it to go away.

It’s a ponzi scheme insofar as for the value to go up, you need more “new” investors who are willing to pay more. Crypto currencies have no basis for value. There is no par value, so they are valued in the ether without reason. As Stephen Diehl wrote:

“Cryptocurrencies aren’t currencies and have no mechanism to ever become currencies. They are effectively unregulated securities where the only purpose of the products is price appreciation untethered to any economic activity. The only use case is gambling on the random price oscillations, attempting to buy low and sell high and cash out positions for wins in a real currency like dollars or euros. Yet crypto cannot create or destroy real money because unlike a stock there is no underlying company that generates income. So if you sell your crypto and make a profit in dollars, it’s exactly because a greater fool bought it at a higher price than you did. So every dollar that comes out of a cryptocurrency is because a later investor put a dollar in.”

You probably haven't read this:
https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/crypto-absurd.html

Before they blow, some people make money in ponzi schemes. Even Russian gangsters.

But they are still ponzi schemes.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

This is a Barry level post.

I'll dumb it down for you

Think of Block chain as the printing press. You can make a currency with it or you can print a book. Block chain has utility crypto currency is a scam

Thanks, but I understand blockchain, l am just not an *expert* in blockchain. Some folks, like you, are experts in everything (except changing light bulbs, etc.).

Yes, crypto is scam.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

Or I have to have working knowledge of its basics and have a neighbor who fucking builds it

I’m impressed by your use of the word “fucking” in that sentence.

It's not a scam. It's just a very convenient tool ridiculous speculation. But I don't call it a true scam because there is no centrally organized "scam." It's just a bunch of people collectively acting kind of ridiculous.

Like the progressive wing of the democratic party

Good point, beanie babies were not a "scam" either. But they were a complete irrational ponzi-type frenzy. Just like crypto.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

Link is behind a paywall, but the gist is that crypto-currency don't meet the criteria of money.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/...bitcoin-just-say-no/

Quote:

Is bitcoin money? Well, it is not as it fails the three key functions of money: store of value, unit of account and medium of exchange. Given its extreme volatility, people are not holding bitcoin for long time to use it in the future.

The banking system is not free. They use your money to make money. That's why the transfers are low cost. You money is put to work.

Ok, but you understand how that doesn't answer my question? Because you can just say that the people doing the proof of work on bitcoin are doing it for money also.

The difference is that the the costs are known and very difficult to change without wide consensus.

And you're looking at it only from your perspective as a consumer. There are many things on the back end that are inefficient and unsafe that blockchain could improve on. If you go outside of the US financial system, things can get a lot more dicey.

Lauren Boebert, is that you?

Coming back into this conversation. Many are saying Bitcoin will go to 0 at some point, stabilize at some unknown price, or continue to soar.

So which do you think it will be and what will happen to get the result you think will happen over the long term?

I don't know enough about crypto to invest seriously but I know Matt Damon is trying really hard to make me feel like a coward for not jumping in.

Fundamentally, bitcoin (and other crypto) is essentially useless as a currency. So, if it is useless for that, then what is its usefulness?

The price will go to whatever crypto is useful for. If it is clearly not useful, then its price will go to zero. Might not happen yet, but that's where its gonna go eventually.


A remarkably prescient new HBO documentary about manias and ponzi frenzies, applies nicely to crypto as well. Trailer:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4lyUdABSHhs

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

You and the others in this thread are focusing too much on what it is today and not what it can be in the future.

You are also looking at this from your privileged lenses of sitting comfortably in the US with your US Dollars.

I found the article and especially if you go to that guys Twitter feed to be a bunch of myopic ranting.
.

You'll get no argument from me that the Crypto and Blockchain space is the wild wild west, rife with speculation and scams. But there are also a lot of innovative and disruptive technology and applications that are being developed.

It is an apt comparison to the Dot.com boom.

You have the technology and future applications of dot com (the internet) and you also have the wildcat investment speculation part of that. I encourage you to keep them separated.

Interesting. I found his Twitter feed to be focused on crypto, but pretty normal.

Can you elaborate on how being in the US distorts the view of crypto? And Stephen Diehl is in England.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

The EU is the same... meaning they and the US has a fairly stable currency that can act as a relatively stable store of value... currently. But go talk the the person in Venezuela or Turkey on what their experience is with it.

ETA, the UK exited the EU, but same situation applies.
.

Are you saying that a that people in those countries hold a lot of crypto, or just support the idea of crypto?

Can they buy regular stuff in those countries with crypto?

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

No I'm not saying that. I'm saying I bet they wished they had easy access to a form of currency and a store of value. Their central currency is not one.

The reason a country's currency may not be stable could be from different reasons... economic collapse, civil war, external wars/invasions, the government running their printing press on high speed, poor centralized monetary or economic policy, etc..

I completely agree that certain countries' currencies can be terrible for storing value. But the solution is to replace them with another "currency" that is also terrible at holding value ??

Not sure that is a solution.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

Again, try to open your mind to not what it is today, but what could be in the future.

That is a cop out response. You could say the same thing about currency. Open your mind and think not about the Venezuelan Bolivar today. That currency could really be something in the future. Just open up your mind.

Many crypto currencies are volatile because they aren9t pegged to a "stable" currency. The future is based on a stable currency, and that could mean USD, Euro, yuan, or even a crypto. But I would bet a hard currency is that future rather than crypto.

Are there a lot of experts in software, crypto, currencies, and economics (but who have zero financial stake in crypto) who share this view?

If yes, can you share some links?

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

It's still new. Think of the early days of email. Only a few people knew what is was and even fewer knew how to do it. Hardly anyone trusted it. Now it's nearly impossible to do business without it.

The traditional way to transact foreign countries outside the local currency is to use dollars. But dollars are heavily counterfeited in those areas. Dollars can also be stolen and seized. Also can be difficult to transfer large amounts. Crypto solves most of those problems.

El Salvador is a big test. It's the only country so far that you can officially crypto it as currency AFAIK.

As far as stability goes, I think China actually showed us how stable it actually is. It went from having the largest mining capability to banning it outright, and the price didn't move as one might have thought.

Your first paragraph is a nonsense reply.

Re the underlined: That is the whole point... meaning people want a currency that is not attached to a centralized government. You'll get no argument from me that all non-pegged cryptocurrencies are very volatile right now.

Criminals use it because it is much harder to trace, control, and seize than transactions that go through the banking system.

While criminals certainly do use it criminal activity is only a small portion of crypto transactions.

Maybe you are right. But are there a lot of experts in software, crypto, currencies, and economics (but who have zero financial stake in crypto--and this part is important) who share the view that crypto has huge possibilities as currency? If yes, can you share some links?

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

That's like the opposite of someone who puts their money where their mouth is. If someone has wealth and believes in crypto why would they not put any money into it?

Are you saying that "experts" that support a ponzi scheme (or other scheme) will always have their own money invested in the same said scheme?

This is an interesting point. But, then how does one circumvent this paradox to get truly objective input and advice?

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

You obviously have an agenda and fixed pre conceived opinion on it by asking a crypto question, but keep phrasing the echo system as a Ponzi scheme.

So what you are asking for are links to expert papers and articles from people who believe in crypto and blockchain technology, but just not strongly enough to actually invest in it.

Good luck with your search. You can use Google as well as anyone else can.

.

No agenda at all. Just trying to find and go with the most (relatively) objective evidence.

I acknowledged your point as a good one. But is there a way around the paradox that you posed? Serious question.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

Will do ...

What do you think of the link in post 103, and the links in post 105?

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

Welcome to the financial world. Good luck finding your unicorn.

It's not solving the problem, as far as I can tell. (I don't agree that the problem is the deep conspiracy you imply, as the "fiat currency" system combined with regulated trading have combined to allow "the people" access to capital ownership and wealth accumulation never before seen in the history of man).

But back to cryptocurrency. I don't see it solving the issue. I'm over-generalizing, but we seem to have the choice between using unregulated exchange and wallet services that are unreliable stores of money and trafficked by people I'd consider "unsavory" at best. Or using the more transparent and reliable services like Robinhood and Coinbase where your money is reasonably secure and you're unlikely to be aiding a service that helps child porn traffickers (or child traffickers), but has transaction costs way worse than just using a regular bank in combination with a low-fee brokerage service. And doesn't hide your transactions from government.

Cryptocurrency is not going to be magic end-around societal and governmental problems. The tools to fix government are participation, activism, etc. We can't tech our way out, because blockchain or something.

The CCP sure thinks that it's a threat, so if nothing else it has that going for it. They are terrified of the population having a way to transfer wealth to something they can't control.

China has already effectively removed cash from their society and are about to issue their own official govt crypto.

Banning bitcoin and other crypto was the first step to scorch earth, before they issue their own digital currency...every transaction by every citizen tracked on the CCP blockchain.


.

Interesting.

Is this an argument for, or against, crypto?

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

It is neither, just commenting on China's actions.

That said, people are misinformed when the go on about how crypto currency mainly harbors criminal anonymous activity. It is a red herring argument. Go ahead and see how easy it is to off-ramp crypto (especially large amounts) into actual fiat currency while remaining anonymous.

I really do expect the US to eventually take the $USD digitally at a minimum, and assuming the technology proves out at massive scale, do so on the blockchain. All governments would love to keep better tabs on all financial transactions. I'm betting they'd love to get rid of cash all together. That is where the real criminal activity occurs...cash transactions and the $USD is the preferred global currency of criminal activity.

.

I agree the motivation is there amongst a core group of techno-libertarians. It all went wrong somewhere.

I'll leave the other argument for another thread. :)

Isn't the usa essentially digital (currency) anyway alteady?

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

Transactions are mostly digital, through 3rd parties, but the actual USD currency is not.

When the US gubnent stops printing actual paper cash and coins, then we'll be digital.

Yes, but in the usa, we are already 90% digital (in terms of the money supply). Won't be long until its even more than that.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

You forgot the time aspect of things and the fact that the blockchain will likely speed these transactions to instant transactions versus the delay that we have now.

That doesn't make any sense at all. Why would blockchain transactions be faster? You have all the fundamental communication delays, plus extra from the blockchain.

Your experience of the transaction as a consumer is different than the back end process of how the transaction is actually processed. Depending on the type of transaction, there may be significant fees and/or delays that you may be unaware of.

https://www.osc.ca/...t-registered-ontario

Apparently some regulators disagree, this company is not allowed to do business in Ontario. Also, a number of other countries because they don’t have processes in place to prevent money laundering.

ETA
https://www.binance.com/...4b488213fa30284dd4cd

This is an interesting video, it was linked to in a Vice piece on NFTs. This guy just eviscerates bitcoin, ethereum, and blockchain (all in the first 40min of the video, after that it all about NFTs). A sobering look at what appears to be a huge scam:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

I knew NFTs were just a greater fool scam to help bring more fools into the greater fool scam of crypto, then I watched this video and saw just how much worse it was then I been knew.

We already have plenty of gambling. Why do we need more that also is so destructive to the environment.

Just because something is clever, does not mean it is a good idea.

I took the crypto dive! I'm in, kinda.

For fun I bought 1 share of BITO a Bitcoin-linked ETF. My $24 share is now $25. Boom!!!

Quick, sell now while you still can !

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

I think we've been over this.

I believe it's blockchain currency proof-of-work that's the energy hog, not really NFTs.

I'm not an NFT fan by any stretch. But there's enough real criticism that it doesn't have to be exaggerated.

Unless by "more" you just mean all things "crypto," which would be legit, I guess.

Ok, I will be more specific.

99% of NFTs are energy hogs since the vast majority of them are on etherium and other similar proof of work blockchain.

You do understand that a transaction of an NFT (creation or any selling), requires the same multiple redundant intense computer transactions as a “currency” transaction on the blockchain. It is the same thing.

What l wonder is that when the entire game of musical chairs that is crypto (and NFTs) all comes crashing down, l wonder what will be the worldwide economic impact? Like the crash of 2008? Or even bigger?

It's gonna be bad.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

I don’t think it is nearly as systematic as 2008. There are only really something like 400,000 crypto wallets with any meaningful money (I forgot what I saw, something like more than a couple hundred USD). And lots of people have multiple wallets. So the number of people with lots of crypto is actually very very small. They are loud, because they need to be loud to bring in more fools, but it is not that many people.

The question is how much money is tied up things derived from crypto. Like there are people giving loans to people based on their crypto portfolios. Or investors in crypto companies. We know institutional investors are in the game, I just hope they are not nearly dumb enough to be that deep in it.

At close I'm up a buck-63. Gonna ride this train to the moon!

Oh, boy ...

https://apnews.com/...df74fdeebaeae9188e70

Gee, what could possibly go wrong?

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

Well, this ain't gonna help:

https://www.cnn.com/...-comments/index.html

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

My $15 of free Coinbase that I got when they were in the Super Bowl ad is now worth $7.19.

---

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

A few months ago I watched with stupefaction as the rouble lost more than 50% of its value in 3 weeks. It's now trading higher than it was pre-invasion. I know the situations are barely comparable but it was a reminder that big movements almost always have an emotional component and very often that emotional component gets corrected over time. I'm not convinced there's an easy answer to what "correct" means w/r/t to crypto, but I'm tempted to have a flutter for the first time.

---

"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

If one of the larger exchanges goes, which means that a bunch of people are going to lose lots of their crypto on that exchange, it could cause lots of people to realize that these exchanges are not actually going to protect them like any regulated financial institution. People are going to sell to protect their money, which will drive prices down even more. Then we have an old fashion bank run as people exit before they lose everything.

You are right that emotions have a huge impact on market prices. But crypto requires a constant stream of new buyers, if not the miners can’t cash out and pay their bills. The ruble just needs a 1 to 1 exchange for buyers and sellers, not constant new blood.

Agreed.

But think we haven't yet seen the end of volatility for either the ruble or crypto. Lots of interesting developments are still well ahead.

But such a negative prognosis from Mr Gates definitely puts a damper on things.

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

Help what?

Burn it with fire. It’s a fascist project and a national security threat.

E

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

The “greater fool theory” meets “constructal theory”.

E

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

What's that?

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

You need more and greater fools to keep the scam going.

You need easier and easier access to to the “flow” (see my dynamics of flow post) for a network (or system, or machine, or life form) to persist over time.

What’s flowing in crypto? It’s not money.

E

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

What's flowing in crypto ?

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

Capture.

More and greater fools (human capital), illicit social capital, illicit political capital, illicit trafficked and laundered money, illicit molecules.

Same as always.

The network requires more and easier access to the flow to continue existing.

E

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Organized crime.

https://www.bloomberg.com/...ecoin-pyramid-scheme

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

I am in a huge minus now and not sure that something will change to be honest.

I put $1000 into ether about two months ago for shits and giggles. It’s worth $600.

It’s been more shits than giggles.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Crypto is junk money. Its just another gambling medium. Nothing wrong with testing the waters, just like buying a lottery ticket, but don't go overboard. Like many things gambling related, it's easy to get hooked. Some come out ahead, but most loose.

I won’t be putting more in. Really just a pure gamble for me.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Unfortunately, this ain't gonna make you feel better:

(Read article text:)
https://www.reddit.com/...oin_is_worse_than_a/

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

It’s not a gambling medium, it’s a voter suppression medium, a radicalization medium.
Me

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Nowhere at the moment but i am sure it will change pretty quick.
I just started to learn this subject deeper and even thinking of purchasing a poland crypto license. I think it will help me to provide for my family well and not only that. One thing i am for sure - people still gonna trade for a while, so that is not going anywhere.

My personal belief is that Bitcoin is a "foolish speculator" proxy (almost like an index).

That as long as Bitcoin is > $1.00- investment assets (stocks, higher paying bonds, investment real estate) ... these assets are in an bubble.

I am not soo certain, however, that Bitcoin needs to fall below $1.00. The current price of $16,000 represents a 75% decline from the peak.

I am not really interested in what "foolish speculators" have to say on this topic.

But everyone else...


Do you think stocks, higher yielding bonds, real estate- can reach capitulation if Bitcoin is stuck in a trading range near where it is , or moving very slowly towards $1.00.

Haha, I clicked on that link and got instant "run like hell" vibes. :)

Even the well established players are playing games https://nyti.ms/3hseHNT - Bitance extended a non-binding LOI to bail out FTX and a day later (less?) retracted it. It's hard to see how this turns into something that's sustainable over the long run when the actual financials of so many of the major players are a mess.

Just reposting this.

I bought some Ether in the "Capitulation" phase. $1000 just for shits and giggles. Still more shits than giggles at this point.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Ha,, for me I bought coin base in the bull trap phase, and then didnt have any sells on it and rode it down to here. It is up the past couple days, but would have to do that for a year straight to get back to normal. Stupid me thought that actual crypto was too volatile, and went with the exchange that had market oversight on it. Probably the only reason it is going up now.

Investing in crypto could be quite riskie, that's true. I decided to try isoftbet slots with bitcoin where I can win coins. I heard about them many positive reviews. As for me it could be the easiest way to get crypto. There are many cool games on every taste. Hope the lady luck will be on my side and Ill win some coins.

Thinking about buying Trump playing cards. Looks like a safer investment than crypto.

The absolute fucking idiots on this fucking site.

E

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

You ok bro?

Slowman, pretty sure this account is a bot. You might want to delete it.

I’m up a little since I shorted in February, some walking around money.

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

I was asking more about your mental state than your crypto returns.

They’re the same.

E

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”