I wonder if Iden will even toe the line. Although that might be why he DNF’d today, to save something for next weekend.

---

Let food be thy medicine...

I have a feeling once you hit that “race fatigue” point and apparently Iden said this 2 days prior he wasn’t feeling spritely. I don’t think you get it back in this short of a time frame. Let alone moving to a race that is far more “intensity” than even a 70.3.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Yup, pretty sure he knew he wasn’t going to have the goods today.

---

Let food be thy medicine...

Bermuda coming up the weekend...

Men. 1 Yee
2 Luis
3 Geens

Women 1. Duffy
2. Spivey
3. Coldwell

Is Knibb out? If not, hmmm, she’s a lock for podium in every race she does.

Mens race I am going with yee, Wilde, and an American

She's racing Wilde isn't!

Well that changes things. The bike pace won’t get too hot so I am going with a podium of Yee, McDowell, and Abdelmoula.

I didn’t take into account this is a Jim race for Duffy. Yeah, she didn’t look quite right last week, but that’s easily explained because she was totally focused on this week. Knibb, Duffy, Spivey, Coldwell and Kingma will be the front group. They’ll have a huge lead.

Timings: https://www.tri247.com/...me-watch-live-stream Think with Flora Duffy Hill eight times Knibb has to be a banker each way bet. Has Luis shown any form to justify a pick? Vilaca will be up there.

Not really shown much form but who has recently other than Yee, Wilde and Jonny that I can think of?

I don't expect Blum to podium (I wouldn't be completely surprised if he did)

If he's fit there's no reason why he shouldn't podium, unless he buries himself on the bike trying to stay away from a chase pack.

The only thing that put me off predicting him to podium was seeing him train on a TT bike a couple of weeks ago, sure he said he'd signed up for 70.3s at end of year.

What makes you think she's a lock for podiums in the shorter course races?

Perhaps "lock" is a bit strong but "influencer of the ultimate outcome" is certainly true as she's all but guaranteed to snap the elastic connecting many of the fleet footed followers who can't hold muster the high watts needed to just hold the wheel of the woman ahead of them. It's a lot like having the old Ali Brownlee on a start list. Beth Potter is one of many who has to think "Oh $hit" every time she see Taylor K. on a start list. It will be incredibly interesting to see how recovered Duffy and Knibb are after their last week's efforts.

---

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Bermuda gives her the best opportunity to lock out a podium position given her skill set.

She will push on every time up the hill. If she is in the lead group from the start she will ride everyone off the back. The only questions will be which of the higher ranked athletes will be able to stay with her. Spivey, Potter and Duffy (if she has recovered) can out run her so her ace will be to break them all and ride into T2 on her own. Possible scenario would be Coldwell and Knibb working together as they can both be out run if they come into T2 with the others.

Yes they would make an excellent team. They both seem willing to drill it with abandon even if others are doing way less work. I'm not certain that Taylor is taking nearly the advantage sitting in that Flora and many of the other great bike handlers are willing and skilled to take.

---

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I’ll agree with the consensus that “lock” was too strong a statement.

The basis for my statement is it appears to me that, much like Duffy in 2017, Knibb has elevated her fitness level.

Maybe she needs one or two more races to “prove” this true.

So I am modifying that statement: I provisionally believe that Knibb is a podium lock going forward.

She just has to stay on the bike. In 2018 she fell at the base of the climb on one of the early laps.

The only questions will be which of the higher ranked athletes will be able to stay with her. Spivey, Potter and Duffy //

I believe TK has opened up her run speed, and she can compete with any of these ladies on a given day. Especially if she has softened their run legs on the hilly bike first, the days of just assuming she will be run down are over. This is going to be a very good race for the swimmer/bikers though, should have a nice break in the swim, and strong bikers to hammer the break going forward. I think Potter maybe doesn't make the split, and if so, race over for her. She outruns no one from 2nd group on the bike, ladies have closed the gap on her outstanding run.


Spivey would be in a great spot here, but she was sick last week at the super league final, and just depends if she got healthy this week with all that travel again. Potter was sick too, but came good last weekend, so perhaps her swim will be up to lead group potential this week. Then we have the two favorites who just did a 70.3 champs, for sure Duffy is going to be a maybe, she blew on the run there and had to suffer in. Knibb is probably in a better position to recover in time, always much easier when you win a race, and get to run your own pace to the end. She should have backed off a lot more, but she was excited and probably not in the proper mindset to be thinking about the next weekend. No reason to win a race like that by 6 minutes, unless you have nothing coming up and have plenty of time to get it completely out of your legs.


We will get to see how it all plays out, gonna be exciting. But all things equal and everyone on a good day, expect to be a nice group of 4 to7 off the front, and the podiums coming from that group too. just too many athletes who have the whole package now, miss the swim, and you miss the race for the top spots

https://wtcs.triathlon.org/...ries_cagliari/563478
Supporting this, and ignoring any adverse effect from St George, Knibb was 3rd overall (behind Lombardi and GTB) and of the chase pack, only Potter and Beaugrand ran faster (15 seconds with a 32:46). Of those only Potter racing tomorrow.
Cagliari (as well as St George) suggested Knibb is firing top trumps in all 3 disciplines.

I reckon Knibb, Spivey and Coldwell are all racing for 2nd and 3rd when they come off the bike (maybe someone else I havent thought of, is in the mix towards the end) Duffy will probably drop everyone 1km into the run I'm guessing.

Who is dialed into a 10km run more? The 2 girls who have been racing Superleague or the girl coming off a 70.3?

When is this race UK time anyone?

1800hrs in UK

Is there a free viewing option in the US?

---

Let food be thy medicine...

Nope but ITU live is darned inexpensive entertainment.

---

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Who is dialed into a 10km run more? The 2 girls who have been racing Superleague or the girl coming off a 70.3?//

I honestly dont know who would be dialed in more for a 10k. Since many of these races come down to the last K or two, I would give it to the SL trained athletes. If it is a strong runners course, then the 70.3 trained athletes. But reality is that all of them have a great 10k in them, they have all been training for ITU racing regardless of what they have actually been racing. I think the only question is how did last weeks race play into their preparation for this week? In that I think the half marathon ladies are at a disadvantage, except for Knibb. As I said earlier, she may have run quite controlled, but from her interviews, sounded like she hammered and then hung on, which is not a good sign. Duffy definitely blew, she was in a 3 way pack for much of the run, getting pushed and eventually popped, and then passed and had to repass for her 5th place. She could actually be in trouble in a very fast last 2k in the run. I dont think we can expect the gold medal Flora to be at the race this weekend, but who knows, it is her home race, and that has to be worth at least a minute in the run to have the home crowd cheering just for you. Hell, they named schools, streets, and new borns after her there!


Knibb will have to take control of the bike if she wants any shot, and she has proved she can race that way, similar to the Killer B's. I dont know how involved their coach gets into tactics, but I believe both Taylors have the same coach. What does Paulo tell them, good luck and go fast? I mean he knows each of their strengths and weakness, and probably how they are feeling too at the time. SO does he use this inside information to help one over the other? Kind of a conflict, but not unlike Gustav and Blu, only those two actually train everyday together, so probably dont need to be told what the others weakness is going to be, if any..


On another note, does anyone have any idea how good Vincent Luis is going? He has been out for awhile, I wonder if he is back 100%? He would be the wild card for sure, and of course Blu too. But look for Iden to want to redeem himself, just depends on if his health came right in time. Glad he pulled out last week, but probably should have done that before loop one of the run.

Home race or not, I don't see anyone outrunning Duffy, I think GTB is the only women coming off a hard bike who can (can't wait for grand final)

What does it take for Iden to redeem himself? Because he's not getting near the podium!

Something seems "off" from Duffy since she kinda did all this experimenting with 70.3 racing. She even alluded to it post PTO Dallas of kinda the demands of training being just enough different that it's just different.

I can't see her taking it 1km into the run as Jackets' suggested, I just dont see the fitness/speed to say that.

Knibb and Spivey don't have the same coach. Knibb is coached by Ian O'Brian while Spivey is as you said w/ Paulo. Coaches at that level don't really use info to gain help over the other, especially if they are squad mates etc. Everyone has their own strength and weakness and most athletes and coaches can "predict" how the race will play out and formulate a plan that is detailed to each athlete. But to suggest an coach would use "inside" info from one squad athlete to use against another...nah that would be bad for the culture of the team. That kind of behavior would put the coach in a very poor light, and all those athletes are all really good friends and everyone knows everyone, and more importantly everyone talks. That type of behavior by a coach would be ratted out fairly quickly, and would piss off the athletes. A coach has a duty to prepare each athlete to the best of their ability, as long as they do that for each athlete, even if they have competiting plans, etc., that's simply fair tactics. That's all that can be asked from a coach and athlete.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

SO the guy that got 8th in the Olympic Games, and has maybe just two or three(?) of the guys that beat him in this race, has not shot at the podium?

I think if he is healthy he always has a shot at just about any podium. I just dont think there is enough fire power to sustain an off the front break here for the men, so there should be an even start for the run with many. And not a terribly deep field either, so if it is a 10k flat start, he could do well, especially if he sits in on the bike and plays possum.