Incidentally, Talbot likes Daniela Ryf, and has shared some content with her girl friend from some tangential aside I picked up on in a previous interview. That's an interesting definition of "phobia" you have there. If you mean, "he's religious and I don't like his brand of faith and I'll bring it up every chance I get..." Well, you're reflecting exactly what you perceive you don't like in the guy and he's not even doing. Talbot has shown no indication of being scared or hurtful towards others based on his personal convictions.

You on the other hand....

Welp, I promised someone I would use this today if I had to get the ban hammer out:



Our friend hiscotsg has been shown the exit.

Now back to our regularly scheduled Lionel discussion.

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Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter

Back to Lionel...

It takes a lot of conviction to say "Screw T100, screw Ironman Pro Series, I'm all-in on Kona", but I do question if it's the right choice... Kona is a non-wetsuit swim and hot, two things that Lionel has struggled with.

I really think he has a good chance to win St. George and Lake Placid which would put him in the driver's seat for the series. Yes, adding a 3rd Ironman would likely impact Kona, but I'm not sure he's top 3 in Kona either way.

How many points do we think it will take to win the series?

Here are a few scenarios. Say he wins Cairns and then ends up struggling in Kona and finishes 30 min back:

Oceanside - 2500
St George - 2500
Lake Placid - 5000
Cairns - 5000
Kona - 4200
Total = 19200 points

Alternatively he goes all in on Kona and finishes 5 min back, and then goes to Taupo and finishes 2 min back:

Oceanside + St George + LP = 10000
Kona - 5700
Taupo - 3880
Total = 19580

Maybe he's on to something!

Step one is St George, and as we saw with Ditlev, a lot can change quickly. But will be fun to see the series play out.

Thank you.

He is a bit smart to go away from Texas and do Lake placid instead. to hard to early has never works out for many athletes towards kona.

having watched PTO Miami and then oceanside was ocean side missing the guys that make the first half of the race very fast .

magnus, Laidlaw , RVB, margirier , funk ali,

guys that are going to put early bike power down to stay away, it seems that Oceanside was a it bunchy swim start ( expected) and didn't have the front power on the bike as much , which changes race dynamics so so much at this level.

This is why certain guys make races more fun , margirier and sam and magnus dare you to go with them right at the start of the bike.

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

Sorry chief I have started listening to the rich roll podcast and I’m just now getting in touch with my emotions. Will keep it offline

It is interesting how those points play out. My assumption is that Lionel will end up place top 3 in the series overall incidentally just based on the races he will hit. As long as he races smart (St George 2022) in his long distance races, if he goes to Cairns and Lake Placid he should make the podium on them both. From there, it's really just a question of how things play out between him and the competitors if he wins either or not. He's not so dominant that victory is assured, but he's always good enough to be in striking position.

What amazes me is what the hell has happened to Skipper. I feel bad for the guy. I hope his home and family life is ok. Seems like he's going through what Sanders did all last year.

LS has 1 thing that a lot of other pro's don't have.....not a ton of financial pressure. He's easily making 6 figures from his sponsors and/or content I would say fairly easily. Just being around athletes of that level and knowing how much they can demand from sponsors, I'd say that's likely semi accurate. That is really important because I think he can go "all in" on the Kona and not chase the schedule/travel that others may do to then go into Kona percentage points off because of that. It may blow up in his face with a flat tire or he may just f up the taper and finish 13th, and then he looks stupid. But from a doing everything "right' to put his best chance at Kona- he's currently in a position to now do that.

But he's also doing what 2/3rd of the IM's that are in the series (assume he KQ's in LP), so if he does well in all his races, he's also going to have a decent score just because of that. But again in the IM Pro Series, the money isn't really all that great outside of top 5. So those who go all in on that will be rewarded, but if you went all in and finish 7th? What's the reward? $30k extra

So if you actually look at it, if you think you can go all in on a Kona big day, your basically just trading out paychecks imo from the pro series to the 1 day pay check at Kona. And has previously stated, I do think there will be some "kona only" guys that show up in better shape and fitness than athletes who are grinding through the series + Kona.

So it's actually not that bad of a strategy. He just can't have a bad day in Kona (duh). But if your doing everything right and your in the best shape of your life, sometimes you just have to roll with whatever happens on race day. I don't think you can then judge that it was the wrong decision. Again he could get stung by a jellyfish and be in T1 for 20 mins, he could have a flat tire, he could bonk at mile 18. Sometimes you just have to accept, shit can happen even with the best race plans and taper.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
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What about the guy in the puppy thread telling the OP to euthanize his puppy for no reason?

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What do you mean about Skipper ? Because of Oceanside??? He has always been a 140 mile guy like Lange or Hanson not a 70.3 athlete.

it was 17 months ago he was top 5 th in Kona.
Nov 2022 won Arizona
5 th in roth
Won Ironman lake placid 2023 just 10 months ago, he had a blip in Nice so far.

nice was not for him, He says how he hates kona and it's not for him but everyone feels that "everybody"!!! Nice had to much climb not enough straight power for him. Plus he might have had some issues bike mechanical or just body.

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

Got rid of that gem of a post, too.

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Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter

Hate to quibble with your maths but Taupo only offers 3000 for the winner so 2880 for 2 mins down and therefore 18580 (so maybe "he's (not) on to something")
In reality Sanders is going to get well distanced by the firepower we'll see in Taupo (several of the top T100 guys (including van Riel), Iden, Wilde) say minimum 5 mins down. A 5 mins down result at Kona would be literally dreamy(ing).
But wins at St George and IMLP (4 x IMWCQ aval) would give him a great foundation for however he does in Kona and Taupo.
The max score in the IM Pro Series is 21,500. Just have to take the number of seconds down in those 5 races to get the score but also take a 500 hit if no Taupo and a 2500 hit if a third 70.3 as opposed to a third IM.
Until we see more of the likely contenders established (maybe by mid July) I suggest it's really quite speculative what a winning score might be. I can't see any of the T100 athletes being up there, but they surely will race Taupo and Kona, pushing the deficit higher in those two events.
Who are Sanders main Pro Series competitors? Lange, Leiferman, Hogenhaug, Chevrot, Wilkowiecki, Skipper, Aernouts

You’re correct- that’s what I get for sourcing the point breakdown from a third party site instead of Ironman.com

So we're back to assuming Sanders is dreaming to assume he can compete for the win in Kona or Taupo.

For the record where did you stand on Sam in Miami? Dreamy to imagine the first place winner would be under pressure and looking over his shoulder to see Sam running him down?

I think it's reasonable for Sanders to target being in the same pack as Ditlev. From there he just needs to hang on behind as Ditlev rides to the front and out run him and anyone chasing. Not an impossible dream.

Thank you for your considered response.
Of course Sanders can "compete" ftw at both Kona and Taupo, depending on what you want that to mean: no "assumption" required. You can dream he can be on the podium, but it's a dream shared only by your ilk.
Zero chance (aka "impossible dream") he'll be anywhere near Ditlev at T1 in either of those races even with the excellent swim form he showed at Oceanside. It would be fantastic to see him perform in a full distance race again, in a decent strength field, after so long. Really the last time was well pre-pandemic: his silver in Kona 2017 (I assert that St George, whilst a bona fide IMWC, was a less than "decent strength" field, once both Brownlee and Iden dropped out and Frodeno and Lange had chosen not to enter).
You can make the effort to discover "for the record where did you stand on Sam in Miami", though the relevance escapes me. I thought Laidlow could place top 5 if he 'turned up' but it was more likely he'd still be in his season's build phase, with Kona as his over-riding 2024 objective. I think he'll adopt exactly the same approach on Sunday.

I am curious on your opinion. Kona 2024, Magnus and Lionel come out of T2 together. Who wins any by how much ? (assuming they both rode within reason)

There is no "depth of field" column in race results.

It is just a list of athletes and times.

Lionel got silver at the 2022 IMWC no matter how you want to cut it. If the others dropped like flies before the race, or after the race it does not matter. It is like all the people who say that Lionel's 51.3km Canadian Hour record is soft and if real cyclists show up, it goes down. Again, there is no depth of field entry there, Just out ride those who show up. Same at Oceanside, he beat everyone who showed up. You pointed to Lange not racing St. George 2022, yet Lionel JUST BEAT LANGE at Oceanside 2024. So anything is possible, you can only race those who show up. Lionel may end up 31st in Kona or DNF, but he could be waaaay higher.

Agreed, he has not had a great 140.6 outing since May 2022. But let's see what he can achieve rather than dismiss his 2022 WC race with "no one good was there".

Well like I said, it's reasonable for him to target being in the pack with Ditlev. That's his path to the podium. There's much more than zero chance.

Just like how likely after this weekend, Sam Long could be the number one ranked triathlete in the world.

I’m new round these parts, sheriff, have I benefited from a one in, one out policy? Thanks for having me and looking forward to seeing how Lionel races in the rest of 2024.

Zero chance (aka "impossible dream") he'll be anywhere near Ditlev at T1 in either of those races even with the excellent swim form he showed at Oceanside.//

I find this statement of fact(zero chance) kind of baffling, especially for someone so close to the pro side and usually quite knowledgable on that front. I mean in Miami Sam had a pretty good ride, holding off the chasers trying desperately to lap him, and then pretty much even riding ditlev in no mans land at the back of the pack. I think we can say Sam's bike is right up there with the best, if not actually the best right now. Power numbers are off the hook, and not like he isnt backing up his rides with great runs too.


So with that in mind, you now have Lionel riding with Sam in a race that he probably attacked harder on the bike(shaking loose clingers as opposed to riding all alone), and then having one of the fastest runs on the day afterwards. True that Lionel said it stressed him to hang, but with his run, doesn't seem he over rode to come to T2 with Sam..


So using basic algebra, if Sam rides with Ditlev, and Lionel rides with Sam, shouldn't it at least be possible or better than 0% chance that Lionel can ride with Ditlev??? I know comparing from race to race can be limiting sometimes, and often folks will use spurious splits to make invalid comparisons, but these are recent and seem applicable for some context, no??yes


And yes he has improved his swim, and that also appears to be near a ditlev group. Which just makes it so he is no longer burning matches to get up to 2nd/3rd packs on the bike before making a charge to the front. And of course coming out in front of Sam is going to be a game changer for him too, being able to ride with the most aggressive and strongest rider in the fields at the moment..

If they were both blindfolded I'd take Magnus, but obviously that ain't how this works and I don't see Lionel letting Magnus get away. He'd hang on for dear life and out kick him at the end.

We're also discussing the wrong guy comparing Lionel and Magnus. Laidlow is the top dog when it comes to IM World Champs biking.

Probably. Looking at what it would take to beat the course record, on a day like it was set, either of the three could do it IMO

If Ditlev and Sanders ride into Kona T2 together (maybe in the lead, maybe not) then Sanders will be confident of beating Ditlev, And I reckon he would beat him by a couple of minutes (proper acclimatisation required - is this a Sanders strength?).
When he doesn't blow up Sanders averages 2:42 for the marathon (2021 plus IMWC 2021).
Ditlev averaged 2:45 in 2022-2023 but with a best in Roth of 2:37.
Are you confusing T1 and T2 here? Totally unlikely that they'll be anywhere near exiting T1 (with Ditlev up the road heading for Laidlow et Al). By T2 - a real challenge but by no means impossible (but Sanders will have had no help for 180km whereas we might expect Ditlev to have Iden, Blummenfelt, Brownlee and Laidlow taking some but not much of the train load).
First bit (the riding bit): absolutely (credit JK). Swimming bit (and you know this better than anyone on here), Sanders' swim, even if his Oceanside swim is evidence of where he's at in 2024, is still a pack behind Ditlev. Do you disagree?
Miami: Ditlev 2:27 ahead of Long.
Oceanside: Sanders 59 seconds ahead of Long.
To rephrase in your style: if Sam loses 147 seconds to Magnus, and Sam loses 59 seconds to Lionel, isn't it reasonable (but not 100%) to say that Lionel cannot swim with Magnus???

It's possible for things to align where Sanders ends up in Ditlev's pack is my point.

Sanders was 30s down off Braden Currie in Oceanside. In St George 2022 Currie was front pack with Sanders down 4.5 minutes.

I think it's entirely possible that the improvement Sanders made in the last few months suggests he can eventually get into Ditlev's pack and come out near him. He already came out near Currie in Oceanside. Where do you think Ditlev would have come out in Oceanside?
In Nice Ditlev came out 90s down from Currie.

We all know how this goes. Maybe Currie was off in Oceanside, got stuck in the wrong group, maybe the same for Ditlev in Nice, yada yada...

My point is simply that pack dynamics make it a reasonable possibility that Lionel, if he manages to keep his swim focus up, ends up swimming in the same group that Ditlev does and it won't require a impossible miracle.

Agree and I believe Lionel knows that as well.


Laidlow and KB are the ones to beat in Kona. It also looks like Gustav and Olav have given up on the Olympics and Gustav is all in on Kona. Gustav just needs to finish an Ironman. I would think we will easily see him in a late summer Ironman. I doubt Gustav will wait until Frankfurt to race as he would not want to race KB unless it was a world championship event then we can take full advantage of those winning bonuses. Never count out a Norwegian. We also don't know the form of some of the other European athletes and the likes of Max Neumann. Saying zero percent chance at this early in the year is something dumb to say. Anything can happen. Perfect example someone wrote above 0% chance Lionel swims with Magnus. I mean Magnus just fractured his wrist yesterday. We have absolutely no clue what the recovery time will be on that. How much time he will be out of the water and how fast he can get that speed back. This is why they hold the race! I know one thing for sure it's going to be an amazing year with more high-level racing than we have ever seen before with the likes of the T100 Series, Ironman Pro Series, and the Olympics.


With all that being said, Lionel is 100% not doing the Ironman Series. He thought about it for a bit, thought about racing Frankfurt after Lake Placid, but then reminded himself just to give Kona his all 100% for the first time in your career. In which I agree with. Take that chance. If he hits a home run it will be the best decision ever. If he misses it will be unfortunate but at least for Lionel's mental headstate, he will know he gave it his all.

I would say "IF" which is so dumb and hypothetical. If won ST703, IMLP, and KONA. He could go race 70.3 Worlds or that Australia 70.3. But if you won Kona I bet that would be the last thing on your mind.

Gawd its gonna be a good year! So exciting for the sport!