I agree with everything you wrote, but sadly, I think Iden is not going to get back into Championship form in time for Kona. Obviously, I'm not seeing his training and maybe he's bounced back a lot, but I think 2022 more out of him than he realized. Likewise, I wouldn't be surprised to see Blummenfelt struggle in Kona. Laidlow and Ditlev are the ones Sanders will need to take down, and I think Lionel can out run them both. If Ditlev/Sanders can't catch Laidlow on the bike, it will be pretty epic to see Lionel chasing his dream.

Talbot, please make sure Lionel does some proper sauna prep many weeks out. Let's get some videos in the sauna instead of the hot tub this time!

 


After seeing this gem, Lionel will require more aero.

When your CDA is .21 on a road bike and your Vo2Max is 105 why would anyone bother to show up ?

Cause there's a reasonable chance he's going to get off the bike holding his leg and hobbling for awhile.

these angle points don't even match? is this pink? Why would he plan to pull the group in Paris faster to the run course. I know he isn't its incase he missed the front group to bridge up.

but if he does make front group and every one is in one big group we may have the slowest 40 km bike ride in Olympic history as everyone saves it for the run.

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

My post is pink

When you claim Blu has a .21 CDA on a road bike, you gotta wonder how well they grasp their numbers.

Any word if Lionel was pleased with his watts to speed conversion at Oceanside?

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Let food be thy medicine...

where did you get that??? maybe they are just trolling?

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

I sent him the analysis this morning so haven't heard back. I assume he would be (I would be).

 

The problem with aero testing is people expectations. Say you are a 0.24. You do a bunch of tests, find gains that bring it down to 0.21.

But to make that 0.21 "stick" over a long portion of the course requires some training. What we sometimes see is guys managing to get that 0.21 for longer and longer periods.

The guys that make aero gains stick most are those that monitor them in training and chip away. There are some WT riders that have their TT training rides analyzed. They go out for 3hrs on the TT bike and do say 20min efforts and we see how they did.

Are they using any sensor like Notio, aiming for wind protected segments, use public wind data or just generally check times?
Curious what goes into this analysis. Thank you!

All 3.

For example, Lionel did Indian Wells with a sensor. It's a smaller version made to monitor athletes more than for pure aero testing

Same thing with the WT guys but in training, not allowed for races

Since they can't race with them so we use a bunch of tools for that analysis. Think BBS on steroids.

Lionel did not have a device at Oceanside.

Open question: is Kona better for Lionel than Nice? He probably has best w/kg of all pro’s, he should be able to ride away on the climb and you can learn that downhill by doing it 100 times the weeks before…

If his training and taper are dialed in, and if he has a swim that puts him close enough to strike on the way up to Hawi, then it could be really interesting. If we happen to end up with moderate temps on the run and/or winds on the bike that punish the pure runners, that could be his ticket.

sadly, this is part he won't do. if it's about suffering more than anyone through ugly threshold sets on the trainer, or doing savage interval workouts at the track, or whatever, he'll do it. he's done it for years. but the unglamorous and totally necessary professionalism side of things he's always lacked. committing to bike handling, swim training, transitions, nutrition, prep, equipment . . . all of it.
maybe the new lionel would take a different approach, but i just think that flying over to nice and putting in the dozens of reps in the off-season, or hooking up with some world-class roadies to develop descending technique, things like that are the things he's never been willing to do.
i wish he would. i'd love to see the guy win more races.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

When’s the last time LS had any good result outside of North America? Copenhagen in 2021?

LS has comparable but not better W/kg than e.g. Lange or Sam Laidlow. Also Nice, with its 2500m elevation, doesn’t justify W/kg as a better predictor than absolute W or W/CdA. It’s simply not hilly enough. For the same reasons all male pros used tri bikes and not aero road bikes with clip-ons.

100 times? Considering doing the downhill part 3x a day for 5 days a week, it’d be more than 6 weeks in France. LS is technically weak, for a male pro. 100 times would’ve masked it indeed, but it’s logistically impossible.

If LS extrapolates his Oceanside form for the rest of the year, I think he can podium in 2024 Kona, and I wish him that. Win goes to Laidlow/Blummenfelt/Ditlev.

This is not so much directed at you as it is questioning the whole idea since I've seen a handful of people list/mention Kristian as a favorite, but I just don't get it. He's an all time great, but if he wins Kona after training for the Olympics all year does that not immediately go down as the single greatest triathlon performance in history? At this point I think Laidlow has to go in as the favorite with Magnus not far behind. If Gustav is able to get healthy and consistently train leading up to Kona I'd even put him ahead of Kristian.

I’m not saying KB is a clear favorite. He’s one of 3 to me.

After Paris, he would have >2.5 months for IM specific training, heat prep & taper. That’s more than 2021. He keeps saying, that if he wins gold in Paris, he wouldn’t need to validate. Otherwise & rather probably (Yee, Wilde and Coninx have cumulatively higher chances) he’d need to fit in a validation race, which complicates things.

I like Gustav, but I doubt he will be fit enough - he has a longer path than KB, even if he’s more energy efficient than KB. Check Achilles injury recovery stats and you’ll see that it’s, on average, a real long-lasting problem.

I forgot to add Lange to the mix, but I’m not sure if the gap expected in T2 will be in his reach. It might be too much with the current mix of athletes.

Off topic:
Blummenfelt has plenty of time to prepare for Kona (as you say). Not quite sure what 2021 has to do with it.
Ironman gave him and Duffy wildcards to race the IMWC in 2021, which he exercised in May 22.
On validation, he has a pretty straightforward path: 18 days after Paris (individual), he can race (as in compete in) IM Frankfurt. And then has a clear 9 weeks prep for Kona (with maybe a T100 in Ibiza, if invited, but Wilde will want that slot: the latter has indicated that Weihai clashes with an event he was planning to race)).
Unless he slips a 70.3 in, in the next few weeks, he will not be heading for Taupo (and unlikely to qualify to race the T100 GF).

KB raced Cozumel in late 2021 which he smashed, that's what he was referring to. I think he could probably do the same again but only if he wins the Olympics. Having to try to win (or KQ) Frankfurt on demand so close the Olympics would be a major hurdle with little to no long distance training.

Still off topic (excuse)
But he doesn't have to "win (or KQ) Frankfurt", he is AQ and merely has to complete to validate: a long training day and 'welcome to long course 2024'. I suspect he will be breathing a deep sigh of relief that he no longer has to race SC and get on with beating another cohort, demonstrate his awesomeness, and make decent money.

It is sure seeming like our favorite Youtuber of 2023 is now a professional triathlete in 2024 and you gotta love that. Looking forward to seeing how he does at St George.

Looking at the weather in Tucson next week, wondering if he is sticking to his resolve to not train through the heat this year

he's not on the start list!

Please share the link which shows him not.
Try this, and search for Sanders/Laundry/Long/Currie:
https://sportstats.one/...ronman-703-st-george
Sanders is shown as #2 (Long #1, Laundry #3 and Currie #5. Edit: Dubrick #6, Hamilton #17,

Ironman just posted on facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=989439845868701&set=pcb.989440509201968


M2 (presumably Lionel's number as you say) is not there. I doubt they forgot just him.