I would suggest that you have some swim talent but not a huge amount. Obv "talent" has a huge range from zero to Phelps we might say. And ya I know my evidence is "anecdotal" but that's all I've got. I will say that, after having observed literally 1000s of guys and girls trying to swim, the 4 sub-5:10 guys are like 1 in 1000 or something like that.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

So the 4 sub 5:10 AOS dudes are, by your math, each 0.1% likely.

And that's your barometer for "talent." Interesting.

Anyway, back to the normally scheduled Lionel programming.

I feel heard. Paraphrasing from his new bike testing video:

"A major difference between swim and bike is on bike I'm able to do quite large intensity jumps on each stage, whereas on the swim the jumps were almost zero. And they I believe highlights the mechanical aspect of swimming, and one of the biggest problems for a developing swimmer is mechanical breakdown under load..... On the bike I'm able to keep going up and the lactate goes up with it, on the swim in literally getting nothing [when the lactate goes up]"

I just think it’s so funny he’s back to lactate testing…

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-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
ZOOT, QR, Garmin, HED Wheels, Zealios, FormSwim, Precision Hydration, Rudy Project

Yes Lionel's swim times have not improved in 10 years yet here we are with a third repeat episode. people must watch these ones the most as they can relate.

First 70.3 2013 was 26:16, worlds 2016 70.3 2016 25:41, worlds 2023 24:53

course measurements and distance and race dynamics change but overall he is about the same ish??? I wouldn't say we is a WEAK swimmer just not an elite swimmer. Is he a more efficient swimmer??

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

another repeat!!!

what do you think he wts?

Also I have tested so many athletes hundreds of different with lactate I have ever seen a athlete breathing that hard during a test and being under 3 mmol ( unless they wear burnt out like so burnt out issues in neuropathways were beginning) . and at 4.7 or whatever we was at being gassed after 6 min.

it's very individual results but similar to kona last year the lactate test doesn't match the effort.

IS his breathing and HR not able to keep up with his muscle physiology.

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

This looks like a precursor to starting a series of "how to" videos for potential clients.

Is his lactate meter accurate? I don't quite understand how he's doing 376 watts and gasping for air yet getting a 2.7 reading?

And his 344 is only 1.5, with 311 only 1.1?

2013 didn’t Lionel push 360 watts in that race?? (If my memory serves me)

Elite athletes have a huge maximal fat burning potential aka FatMax which has a large role in where the aerobic threshold lies. It's still very hard to do 376 watts, eg, but the glucose burn isn't really that high. The glucose v fat burn ratio doesn't exactly correlate to lactate values but it's similar enough that you can make educated guesses on training about what's happening. Lower glucose burn =lower blood lactate.

Seeing 1.1mmol at 311w suggests that he can produce that wattage with a negative lactate accumulation. That is too say if he did a 500w effort and spiked lactate he could go back down to 311 and (very) slowly recover back to baseline.

Very generally elite endurance athletes will have lower later values at threshold than recreational athletes. The linear progression between effort and measured lactate starts to break down at the pointy end. 376w is hard no matter how you cut it. Being able to do it with high fat burn and low lactate doesn't decrease the wattage going out and the associated heart build up and (some of) the ventilatory costs. One of the big issues people found with the Norwegian method was taking 2.8mmol as sacrament for LT2 instead of finding their own value, usually closer to 4mmol for non elites.

Yes Lionel's swim times have not improved in 10 years yet here we are with a third repeat episode. people must watch these ones the most as they can relate.

First 70.3 2013 was 26:16, worlds 2016 70.3 2016 25:41, worlds 2023 24:53 //

SO much wrong here with your statement, beginning with 3 times that have "improved", and yet you are using these to, claim no improvement? And yes, to use OW times for comparison is very difficult, and to have any meaning you would need to go back and factor in the lead group times for a baseline for that swim course on that day. And as to his recent set of 400's, he stated up front that he has basically done no swimming in the past 7 weeks, just taper stuff and a couple races, and then rest. So of course he is going to be on the slow side for something like this, not to mention he is in some one lane backyard pool that is certainly a lot slower than the municipal pools he swims in there and has raced in over the years.


Now I'm not categorically saying that Lionel has made big improvements in his swim, most likely there are marginal gains mostly due to increasing power and just time in the water. He hasn't come near the improvements that he needs to accomplish, having his get out speed 100/200/300times down to a level where he can routinely get on the back of the 2nd pack. He occasionally gets there, but no where consistent enough to take advantage of his superior bike and run powers over most the field.


He is on the right track for sure, letting in some folks that understand this stuff a whole lot better than he does, and are able to help him assimilate that information in a way that he sees the path forward a lot more clearly. No more caveman workouts with a rock hammer, now getting out the scalpel and slicing off little bits at a time, and then moving forward from there..


From his cycling test (also done in an untrained state for him), it is easy to see how adaptive he has become to hard bike efforts. His warm up is much harder than the first 3 tests, paces he can hold all day. It will be fun to see the 3rd, 4th, and 5th graphs once done in the swimming and cycling, imagine the running one is next too??

the only yards we have are backyards

My thought as well. Wasn’t there a video earlier this year where he said lactate testing was stupid and has no value or something along the same lines?

How long until he changes everything again? Oceanside? St George?

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blog

sub 5 for a 5 yards swim works out to be 428 for a 400 SCM by my calculation.

those people eric knew who managed sub 510 as a late bloomer to swimming must have really loved their time in the pool. that is a great achievement for them they should be stoked on it.

to put into perspective the rarity of sub 5 for 5 yards i have listed the number of times that men in australian masters have broken 428 for the 400 free short course. some of these times are pre 2009 so they would have thrown on the super suits.

the database i am using is not 100% accurate so please take my apologies for this

55-59 - 1
50-54 - 2
45-49 - 3
40-44 -6
35-39 - 7
30-34 - 10
25-29 - 5

some of these guys I have mentioned do the 'life guarding' and 'surf sports' but many are just former pool swimmers. i do not know the triathlon ranks well enough to know if many of them are multi sporters. definitely 1 has done kona as AG

draw whatever inferences you like from this about anything

Well, let's look at the math: 0.1% is 0.001 which taken times the rough USA population of guys say 18 and up is (0.001) (100,000,000) = 100,000 sub-5:10 swimmers. Of course this is a VERY HYPOTHETICAL calculation but I would wager if we could survey all 18 and up males in the U.S., we would find at least 10,000 or more sub-5:10 swimmers especially if we count those who went under 5:10 during their comp swim career. The 5:10 time gets a swimmer just under the 5:11 standard to be a "Grade A" 500 swimmer at age 18 under USA Swimming's age group standards. Prob at least 1000 guys swim under 5:10 every year. Given that the American record for the 500 is 4:06, the 5:10 is not really very fast by comp swim standards. Another comparison is that to be a AAAA level 500 swimmer at age 18, a guy needs to go 4:32 or faster. Also, I would not say that 5:10 is my barometer for "talent" b/c talent is a continuous spectrum from the guy who struggles to learn to swim period, let alone to swim with any speed, up to the very high levels of talent displayed by Phelps, Lochte, Dressel, etc. Also, before you say we can't include the former swimmers in our hypothetical survey, I must state my belief that age has virtually nothing to do with learning swim well, but rather it is half talent and then half DESIRE. If a person REALLY wants to learn to swim well, he or she can do it with sufficient HUNGER and DRIVE. They may not go sub-5:10 but they can get to have a good stroke and pace.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

should be called the norway marketing department method. lactate testing and using lactate zones to prescribe paces has been around for decades. people were getting phds in this back in the 80s, earlier probs. jan olbrecht really got going with this in the 90s. the idea that it is the norweigan method is not entirely accurate :)

Ya he's def not a weak swimmer, just not elite. He's about a Grade A 18 yr old swimmer in the 500, 1000, and 1650 yd free events using USA Swimming age motivational standards. However, to echo Monty's frequent comments, he doesn't have similar 100/200 speed to get out fast at the beginning of the swim. To be Grade A, he would need a 1:54 for the 200 scy and 52.5 for the 100 scy. IIRC, he's around 1:00 for one all-out 100, not sure about the 200.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

That’s what I said the course change and wetsuit and turns and group draft.

Compare Lionel to Sam Appleton on pto and he has been 2:20 - 3 min back nearly every 70.3 race but one which is just a factor of on feet or not and is Sam coasting in the lead group or solo but Lionel’s skills like you said are the same as always just better at getting on a pack and he using a bullet to stay within the leader out of the water were other don’t.

He on the right track ? He isjust beginning the same track that got him his best swim times in 2018,2019 and now he is 5 years older and has more life responsibilities sadly the peak has likely passed by.

I don’t mind the reruns, he gives us free content while he eat our cereal. Better than watching the news.

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

The 0.01% was among the population that you have observed to swim for time, not of the total US population. Your multipliers have different units.

0.01% = ("talented" swimmers) / (adult male swimmers who swim for time)

So you need to multiply it with the population that takes swimming somewhat seriously, not the whole population.

You said 4 out of 1000s are this fast. So out of the total swimming population, we'd probably be looking at 10s or 100s of people total, not 100,000.

Hillarious (at best) as always getting all fuzzy again with all these numbers. I am definitely not and expert on swim technique, but I see his position in the water as a HUGE pain point:
He left arm pull is super weak, and his lower body just drops and he becomes an anchor.
Why not spent a bit more time just trying to be more efficient in the water instead of bogus numbers and trying to get stronger??

I am the farthest thing from a swim expert, but was wondering the same thing. Seemed like he was sinking a bit and his pulling arm/elbow was way far down in the water? I thought maybe it was just because it was a warm up etc...

Latest video of lactate testing on the treadmill. He mentions how he feels his run training suffers due to living in Tucson and the heat of the summer. I live in in Scottsdale and it is true run intensity has to be pulled back during the hottest times of the year. However, he was training frequently outside at 11am. If he wanted to try and maintain some quality, 5am would have been a better choice. That's what I do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dx3coYK7JYQ

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-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
ZOOT, QR, Garmin, HED Wheels, Zealios, FormSwim, Precision Hydration, Rudy Project

Think I heard him say this summer he won’t stay in Tucson. Did I hear correct?

Yes, he said they're getting out of town when it gets hot.

Any thought in Lionel’s trip to the velodrome?